A Discourse on the Incorporation of Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Key Questions and Categorical Review

This article presents a discourse on the incorporation of organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), a topic of debate since the 1980s that has spurred discussions among industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community. The main contributions of this article include (1) identifying the four key open questions associated with this topic; (2) framing ongoing debates by considering differing perspectives around each question; (3) offering a categorical review of existing studies on this topic to justify the selection of each question and to analyze the challenges related to each perspective; and (4) highlighting the directions of research required to reach a final resolution for each question. The four key questions are: (I) How significant is the contribution of organizational factors to accidents and incidents? (II) How critical, with respect to improving risk assessment, is the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (III) What theoretical bases are needed for explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (IV) What methodological bases are needed for the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? Questions I and II mainly analyze PRA literature from the nuclear domain. For Questions III and IV, a broader review and categorization is conducted of those existing cross-disciplinary studies that have evaluated the effects of organizational factors on safety (not solely PRA-based) to shed more light on future research needs.     

GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

Prevalence of sarcopenia and its association with functional and nutritional status among male residents in a nursing home in Turkey

Introduction The Aging Male Symptoms' (AMS) scale was designed as a health-related quality of life (QoL) scale and standardized as a self-administered scale, first, to assess symptoms of aging (independent from those which are disease-related) between groups of males under different conditions, second, to evaluate the severity of symptoms/QoL over time, and, third, to measure changes pre- and post-androgen replacement therapy. The scale is in widespread use (17 languages currently available) and a recent review of methodological data documented good psychometric characteristics and ability as a clinical utility. This paper describes test characteristics of the AMS (positive and negative predictive values), taking two internationally established and published screening scales for androgen deficiency as the available standard.

Method A sample of 150 German males aged 40–69 years completed the AMS scale and two screening scales for androgen deficiency: the ADAM scale of Morley and colleagues and the screener of Smith and colleagues. The technique of a computer-assisted telephone interview was applied.

Result The comparison of the AMS with the two screening instruments for androgen deficiency showed sufficiently good compatibility despite conceptual differences. The AMS scale sufficiently predicted the results of the two screening instruments. A positive predictive value of 92% and a negative predictive value of 50% were found regarding the ADAM scale. The respective figures regarding Smith's screener were 65% and 49% for positive and negative predictive values, respectively.

Conclusion The AMS scale obviously measures a similar phenomenon as the two established and widely used screeners for androgen deficiency, although it was not developed as a screening instrument.     

Safety for battered women in a textually mediated legal system 1

This paper proposes a shift in legal advocacy approaches employed by activists in the US battered women's movement that would take into account how the work of criminal justice professionals (police officers, probation officers, judges, and prosecutors) is organized. While judicial procedures may be more successful in bringing domestic abusers to justice than in the past, they are less successful in producing safety for the victims of abusers. Using institution ethnography as a research strategy, I explore aspects of how the work of practitioners in the police and court system is organized in ways that are not observable to activists working with the victims of abuse. An important aspect of the institutional process are its texts. Texts, as they are produced and processed in people's work settings, coordinate and regulate the different phases of practitioners’ work. In these work processes, organized and limited by formalized texts, women's experience of violence and intimidation is erased and issues of their safety disappear. In conclusion, I propose a method of engaging criminal justice professionals and community advocates in an investigation of local criminal justice settings with the intent of making changes in practices which fail to attend to the safety needs of women who are battered.     

What's an Oscar worth?

This article examines the impact of an Academy Award nomination and award for best picture, best actor/actress, and best supporting actor/actress on a film's (i) market share of theaters, (ii) average revenue per screen, and (iii) its probability of survival. The model is estimated using weekly box-office data for a matched sample of nominated and non-nominated films. The results indicate substantial financial benefits for a nomination and award for best picture and best actor/actress. The structure of rewards is consistent with that found in two-stage, single-elimination tournaments.     

Do youth nonmarital childbearing choices reflect income and relationship expectations?

We hypothesize that teen nonmarital birth events are influenced by adolescent girls’ perceptions of the consequences of their choices. Two such consequences are explored: (1) a teen’s expected future marriage and cohabitation relationships and (2) the present value of expected future income. We also measure the effects of the characteristics of the teen, her prior choices, her family, her neighborhood, and the social and economic environment in which she lives. The results, based on the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics, suggest that teens place greater weight on the relationship consequences than the income consequences, but that both consequences influence their nonmarital birth choices.

Real men do not read labels: the effects of masculinity and involvement on college students' food decisions

Consumer literature shows that a decision's degree of personal importance and relevance--one's level of involvement in the decision--indicates which type of intervention strategy will be effective in influencing consumers' choices. The authors surveyed 358 college students at a state university in the western United States to test the applicability of involvement on issues of obesity and eating habits. They found food decisions to be of greater personal importance and relevance to female students than to their male counterparts. The results suggest that efforts to address levels of obesity and being overweight among male college students must recognize that men's food choices are very much rooted in the ideology of what it means to be female and male in contemporary American society. The authors advance 5 peripheral-route intervention strategies to augment existing cognitive-oriented, information-based intervention programs.