An analytic method for randomized trials with informative censoring: Part 1

Consider a randomized trial in which time to the occurrence of a particular disease, say pneumocystis pneumonia in an AIDS trial or breast cancer in a mammographic screening trial, is the failure time of primary interest. Suppose that time to disease is subject to informative censoring by the minimum of time to death, loss to and end of follow-up. In such a trial, the censoring time is observed for all study subjects, including failures. In the presence of informative censoring, it is not possible to consistently estimate the effect of treatment on time to disease without imposing additional non-identifiable assumptions. The goals of this paper are to specify two non-identifiable assumptions that allow one to test for and estimate an effect of treatment on time to disease in the presence of informative censoring. In a companion paper (Robins, 1995), we provide consistent and reasonably efficient semiparametric estimators for the treatment effect under these assumptions. In this paper we largely restrict attention to testing. We propose tests that, like standard weighted-log-rank tests, are asymptotically distribution-free -level tests under the null hypothesis of no causal effect of treatment on time to disease whenever the censoring and failure distributions are conditionally independent given treatment arm. However, our tests remain asymptotically distribution-free -level tests in the presence of informative censoring provided either of our assumptions are true. In contrast, a weighted log-rank test will be an -level test in the presence of informative censoring only if (1) one of our two non-identifiable assumptions hold, and (2) the distribution of time to censoring is the same in the two treatment arms. We also extend our methods to studies of the effect of a treatment on the evolution over time of the mean of a repeated measures outcome, such as CD-4 count.     

从"权利"到"仪式":南非的艾滋病行动主义

在本文中,我考察了南非HIV/AIDS行动主义的道德政治如何有助于公民身份(citizen-ship)新形式的出现,这种新形式既与基于权利(rights-based)的斗争相关,又与个体HIV/AIDS患者对病痛和污名化(stigmatization)极端体验的共享意义相关。我指出,可以确定的是,正是晚期艾滋病患者"接近死亡"的绝境体验、以及与这种疾病晚期阶段相连的巨大污名和"社会死亡",为HIV/AIDS的幸存者对"新生命"和社会行动主义的委身提供了平台。行动主义者的干预和对这些创伤经验的重述也推动了HIV/AIDS对行动主义的委身和社会底层的动员。此外,污名和社会死亡的巨大否定性也驱使行动主义者重建对HIV检测呈阳性人群新的、正面的身份认同,并促使他们思考,作为一名公民-行动主义者和一项社会运动的成员意味着什么。     

Refugee resettlement and the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities

The Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) created pathways for people who are refugees with disabilities to resettle and build new lives. Resettlement country Australia, in response to its CRPD obligations, created greater access to the waiver of visa health requirements for humanitarian entrants. This article chronicles key documents demonstrating that the CRPD has been an effective instrument for improving access to resettlement for people with disabilities. The article also describes new challenges to Australia’s compliance with the CRPD as it fails to address multiple discrimination of people from refugee backgrounds with disabilities, an area of concern to the Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities for which it has issued guidance. This article proposes creating a United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Resettlement Submission Category for disability to improve resettlement programmes’ compliance with the CRPD.     

The Social Structuring of Mental Health over the Adult Life Course: Advancing Theory in the Sociology of Aging

The sociology of aging draws on a broad array of theoretical perspectives from several disciplines, but rarely has it developed its own. We build on past work to advance and empirically test a model of mental health framed in terms of structural theorizing and situated within the life course perspective. Whereas most prior research has been based on cross-sectional data, we utilize four waves of data from a nationally representative sample of American adults (Americans' Changing Lives Study) collected prospectively over a 15-year period and find that education, employment and marital status, as well as their consequences for income and health, effectively explain the increase in depressive symptoms after age 65. We also found significant cohort differences in age trajectories of mental health that were partly explained by historical increases in education. We demonstrate that a purely structural theory can take us far in explaining later life mental health.     

Forecasting the Incidence of Cancer in Regional Victoria,Australia

Loddon Mallee Integrated Cancer Service plays a key role in planning the delivery of cancer services in the Loddon Mallee Region of Victoria, Australia. Forecasting the incidence of cancer is an important part of planning for these services. This article is written from an industry perspective. We describe the context of our work, review the literature on forecasting the incidence of cancer, discuss contemporary approaches, describe our experience with forecasting models, and list issues associated with applying these models. An extensive bibliography illustrates the world-wide interest in this forecasting problem. We hope that it is useful to researchers.     

基于价值链的中国企业社会责任对财务价值的影响

为了支持企业持续地将履行社会责任作为一种长期的战略,探讨企业社会责任与业务相结合对财务绩效的影响以及如何选择既造福社会又有利于商业的社会责任项目.基于价值链视角,采用利益相关者理论和归因理论,用实证方法,选择中国公司社会责任披露的数据,采用因子分析法划分企业社会责任活动,采用面板数据回归分析每种社会责任活动及其交互作用对企业财务绩效的影响.研究结果表明,把社会责任活动分为与价值链基本活动相关的社会责任、与价值链支持活动相关的社会责任和一般性社会责任(与价值链活动无关),与价值链基本活动相关的社会责任和与价值链支持活动相关的社会责任对财务绩效有积极影响,与价值链活动无关的一般性社会责任对财务绩效有消极影响,他们的交互作用对财务绩效也有方向不同的显著影响,即基本活动与支持活动的交互作用对财务绩效有积极影响,基本活动与一般性活动的交互作用对财务绩效有积极影响,而支持活动与一般性活动的交互作用对财务绩效有消极影响.研究结果对企业将履行社会责任与价值创造相结合、实现社会效益和经济效益双赢提供具体的参考.