Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade,Florida

Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) indicate increasing, and imminent, risk to coastal communities from tidal flooding and hurricane storm surge. Building on recent research related to the potential demographic impacts of such changes (Hauer et al. 2016, in Nat Clim Chang 3:802–806, 2017; Neumann et al. 2015; Curtis and Schneider in Popul Environ 33:28–54, 2011), localized flooding projections in the Miami Beach area (Wdowinski et al. in Ocean Coast Manag 126:1–8, 2016) and projected economic losses associated with this rise in projected SLR (Fu et al. Ocean Coast Manag 133:11–17, 2016); this research investigates the accrued current cost, in terms of real-estate dollars lost, due to recurrent tidal flooding and projected increases of flooding in Miami-Dade County. Most directly related to this line of research, Keenan et al. (2018) have recently produced results indicating that Climate Gentrification is taking place in Miami, FL with higher elevations in flood prone areas appreciating at a higher rate. In that vein of thinking, we seek to answer a question posed by such research: What is the actual accrued loss to sea-level rise over the recent past? To answer this question, we replicate well-documented estimation methods by combining publicly available sea-level rise projections, tide gauge trends, and property lot elevation data to identify areas regularly at risk of flooding. Combining recent patterns of flooding inundation with future forecasts, we find that properties projected to be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.08 each year on each square foot of living area, and properties near roads that will be inundated with tidal flooding in 2032 have lost $3.71 each year on each square foot of living area. These effects total over $465 million in lost real-estate market value between 2005 and 2016 in the Miami-Dade area.     

萨满教与北方少数民族的人生仪礼

本文认为 ,人生仪礼是在人生的重要转折时期或危机时期 ,如生死婚嫁等一个人一生中具有特殊意义的阶段上举行的民俗仪礼。在信仰萨满教的民族中 ,各种人生仪礼活动几乎都和萨满教发生一定的关系。     

非物质文化遗产保护的国际经验与国内实践——北京师范大学985工程特聘教授色音访谈

正文化是人类智慧的结晶,我们应该尊重和珍惜每一种文化。孟凡行(以下简称孟):色音老师,首先我对您在百忙之中专门抽出时间接受我的访谈表示感谢。我们知道,二十几年来,您一直在文化人类学、民俗学领域勤奋耕耘,取得了不菲的成就,引起了学界的瞩目。您学术基础宽厚、视野开阔、涉猎多门,在文化人类学、民俗学、宗教学、文化遗产学等领域都提出了一些颇具创新意义的见解。     

Business drivers not sector membership determine the most effective production planning and control; a novel approach to a perennial problem

This paper outlines research aimed at developing novel planning and scheduling reference models for industrial sectors where the MRPII paradigm is not appropriate. It outlines the process mapping approach adopted, the data capture method developed for the case study companies, the use of ARIS (Scheer's) enterprise modelling tool, and the first stages in the production of sector reference models.     

Public and private employment over the business cycle: A ratchet theory of government growth

Previous researchers have attempted to explain the growth in the size of government over time. Some have observed a “ratchet” effect and have attributed these observed jumps in the relative size of government to ideological shifts in response to severe crises. We explain these observed ratchets as the consequence of asymmetries in the response of government employment to the business cycle. A public-choice oriented model of the employment response to the cycle is developed and applied to state and local government employment data. The data confirm the presence of ratchet effects that correspond to the business cycle. Moreover, virtually all of the growth in the ratio of state and local government employment to private employment has occurred during recessions. The authors greatly appreciate the extensive comments of Randall 0. Holcombe and the late Richard McHugh on an earlier draft of this paper. Don Bellantés work on this paper was aided by a grant from the John M. Olin Institute for Employment Practice and Policy.