Secondary analysis of dangerousness among death sentenced capital murderers

The theory of incapacitation involves reducing an offender's ability or capacity to commit further crimes. Capital punishment accomplishes this goal. An executed murderer never murders again. However, we do not execute all murderers, only capital murderers. This policy produces several research questions. Do capital murderers present a special risk to society? Are capital murderers more likely to murder or commit other violent crimes again than other murderers or the average citizen? To answer these questions, many states require a prediction of future dangerousness of a newly convicted murderer. To what extent has the judgment of future dangerousness matched actuarial data of subsequent murders and serious crimes? Using a secondary analysis, this investigation attempted to assemble available data of postconviction dangerousness of death sentenced capital murderers to create a more comprehensive actuarial account of subsequent dangerousness and to present the data in a common format used by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Across 14 studies identified with relevant data, there were 13 instances of subsequent murder and 462 serious crime or prison rule violations.     

A note on estimation in bernoulli trials with dependence

Finite sample properties of estimators for the parameters of a dependent Bernoulli process are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. A ratio estimator is proposed for the dependence parameter of the model and is compared to the approximate maximum likelihood estimator given by Klotz. It is shown that both estimators have a downward bias that is extreme in certain cases and that samples well in excess of 200 may be necessary before the asymptotic theory can be applied.     

2008 North American Serials Interest Group Conference: Taking the Sting out of Serials!

Abstract

The twelfth annual MOBIUS Conference was held June 7–9, 2011, at the Holiday Inn Executive Center in Columbia, Missouri. The MOBIUS consortium of Missouri is currently composed of fifty-nine academic libraries, two public libraries, and the Missouri State Library. The conference offered various opportunities, including a keynote address by Meredith Farkas and a networking dessert session on the first night. The second day featured six concurrent sessions, each having six different presentations, along with delicious food, generous door prizes, and the chance to meet with vendors. The third day consisted of four different four-hour post-conference training sessions. Presentations are available for download from the conference Web site.¹     

关于价格指数缩减法计算工业发展速度的研究

 建国以来,我国一直沿用不变价格工业法计算工业发展速度,这种方法在国家定价占绝对主导地位的计划经济时代发挥了一定的作用。随着我国市场经济体制的建立,不变价法的弊病越来越大,亟待采用适合市场经济特点的新方法。目前,国家统计局正在对两种新方法——生产指数法和价格指数缩减法进行对比计算,从试算结果看,价格指数缩减法优势较为明显。     

A reflected feature space for CART

We present an algorithm for learning oblique decision trees, called HHCART(G). Our decision tree combines learning concepts from two classification trees, HHCART and Geometric Decision Tree (GDT). HHCART(G) is a simplified HHCART algorithm that uses linear structure in the training examples, captured by a modified GDT angle bisector, to define splitting directions. At each node, we reflect the training examples with respect to the modified angle bisector to align this linear structure with the coordinate axes. Searching axis parallel splits in this reflected feature space provides an efficient and effective way of finding oblique splits in the original feature space. Our method is much simpler than HHCART because it only considers one reflected feature space for node splitting. HHCART considers multiple reflected feature spaces for node splitting making it more computationally intensive to build. Experimental results show that HHCART(G) is an effective classifier, producing compact trees with similar or better results than several other decision trees, including GDT and HHCART trees.     

The risks and incentives of disciplinary neoliberal feminism: the case of microfinance

This article develops an analysis of the concept of disciplinary neo-liberal feminism through a focus on gendered poverty alleviation strategies and illustrates the value of this through a discussion of microfinance. By locating this study within an analysis of the expansion of global capital accumulation, the article argues that the liberal frameworks of female empowerment and entrepreneurialism that are central to these programs and to feminism in this form, mask their underlying political, social and economic objectives. In contrast, a Marxist Feminist approach more adequately explains the interplay of class and gender that underpins poverty alleviation strategies. This article argues that in the context of financial crisis and reduced social provision, women living in poverty in the Global South were identified as targets for the expansion of global finance. Their integration into global financial networks via microfinance and other pro-poor strategies has facilitated the expansion of markets for credit while at the same time disciplining market participation through the twin forces of risk and incentive. Disciplinary neo-liberal feminism has underpinned this incorporation of women into global capital accumulation creating profound effects for households and families, with microfinance programs representing important sites of contestation for the politics of class and gender.     

‘There’s a lot of places I’d like to go and things I’d like to do’: the daily living experiences of adults with mild to moderate intellectual disabilities during a time of personalised social care reform in the United Kingdom

Adult social care services in the United Kingdom have undergone a period of transformation over recent years, characterised by a drive towards personalised care. Concurrently, social care budgets have been significantly reduced. This study aimed to explore the daily living experiences of adults with mild/moderate intellectual disabilities, who are at risk of no longer meeting eligibility criteria for statutory support. Focus group discussions, which included both people with intellectual disabilities and support workers, were analysed thematically. Two broad themes are presented: independence and agency; and social capital and well-being. While some participants echoed ideas central to the personalisation narrative, a number of contextual barriers to achieving greater independence and agency were discussed. Moreover, greater independence was not a desired goal for all participants. The findings highlight the potential mismatch between personalised social care, as delivered within significant budget constraints, and the needs of adults with intellectual disabilities.     

The influence of FDA advisory information and black box warnings on individual use of prescription antidepressants

We examine how use of antidepressant medications is influenced by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warnings about the increased risk of suicidality associated with pediatric antidepressant use. With individual-level data on antidepressant use from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we consider whether consumer responses to FDA warnings differ among targeted (children) and non-targeted (adult) age-groups. Because the warning labels specifically mentioned new users, we examine separately the effects of the warnings on initiations of antidepressant therapy and on continued use of antidepressants. We find evidence consistent with reduced initiation of antidepressant use among the intended population of children, and that usage among children with more highly educated parents responded earlier to FDA information. However, we also find spillover effects of reduced initiation among the non-targeted population of adults. Overall, our results indicate that the FDA warning may have led consumers to perceive risks beyond those specifically mentioned.     

The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan

Though recent literature uncovers linkages between commodity prices and conflict, the causal direction of the relationship remains ambiguous. We attempt to contribute to this strand of research by studying the dynamic relationship of commodity prices and the onsets of conflict events in Sudan. Using monthly data ranging from January 2001 through December 2012, we identify a structural breakpoint in the multivariate time series model of prices of the three staple foods (sorghum, millet, and wheat) and conflict measure (number of conflict events) in September of 2011. Applying structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM), we find that wheat price fluctuation is a root cause of conflict events in Sudan. We recommend several policy and programmatic suggestions structured toward production, subsidy, price regulation and support for rural farmers and consumers to stabilize commodity prices.