Reaching out to Aggressive Children

Correspondence to Jo Carroll, 3 Barrow Close, Marlborough, Wiltshire SN8 2BD. Summary Social workers are increasingly being asked to offer therapeutichelp to young children who are persistently aggressive and defiant.The difficulties of working with such children, who appear toreject all efforts to help them, are recognized, and some guidanceis offered as to the timing of such work. Directive techniquesoften fail, as the children refuse to participate in any jointactivity. The value of non-directive play therapy as an approachto these children is outlined, and the practicalities of thistechnique are considered. Finally, a case study illustratesthe value of a non-directive approach with a particularly challengingchild.     

Computer-based scheduling of technical resources

This paper considers the design of a Scheduling Sub-System which could be attached to an existing computerised data processing system in order to enhance its overall operation. It draws heavily on the experience of the authors in designing a system to assist in the scheduling of video tape machines within BBC Television.     

Approximate Bayesian Inference in Spatial Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Abstract.  In this paper we propose fast approximate methods for computing posterior marginals in spatial generalized linear mixed models. We consider the common geostatistical case with a high dimensional latent spatial variable and observations at known registration sites. The methods of inference are deterministic, using no simulation-based inference. The first proposed approximation is fast to compute and is 'practically sufficient', meaning that results do not show any bias or dispersion effects that might affect decision making. Our second approximation, an improvement of the first version, is 'practically exact', meaning that one would have to run MCMC simulations for very much longer than is typically done to detect any indication of error in the approximate results. For small-count data the approximations are slightly worse, but still very accurate. Our methods are limited to likelihood functions that give unimodal full conditionals for the latent variable. The methods help to expand the future scope of non-Gaussian geostatistical models as illustrated by applications of model choice, outlier detection and sampling design. The approximations take seconds or minutes of CPU time, in sharp contrast to overnight MCMC runs for solving such problems.     

FINANCIAL MARKET VARIABLES DO NOT PREDICT REAL ACTIVITY

The past decade has seen an extensive empirical reassessment of the information content of financial market variables sensitive to monetary policy. Particularly provocative are recent papers suggesting that some interest rates and interest rate spreads contain more information about economic activity than monetary aggregates. This paper reviews important methodological pitfalls in these studies. We then show that none of the commonly employed measures of monetary policy contain incremental information useful in forecasting real economic activity. Two conclusions are possible. Either monetary policy innovations have no significant real effects, or we (collectively) have failed in our efforts to measure monetary policy. ( JEL E52)     

Acceptability of a stage-matched expert system intervention for domestic violence offenders

Most interventions for men who batter are standardized and "one-size-fits-all," neglecting individual differences in readiness to change. A multimedia expert system intervention based on the transtheoretical model (the "stage model") was developed as an adjunct to traditional court-mandated programs. The expert system assesses stage of change, decisional balance, self-efficacy, and processes of change and provides immediate individualized stage-matched feedback designed to increase readiness to end the violence. Fifty-eight male batterer intervention program clients were invited by agency staff to complete an expert system session and an evaluation of the program; 33 men were recruited at program intake and the remainder from ongoing groups. Responses to the intervention were very positive. For example, 87% of participants reported that they found the program to be easy to use, and 98% said it could probably or definitely help them change their attitudes or behaviors. Findings provide encouraging evidence of the acceptability of this stage-matched approach to intervention for domestic violence offenders.     

PRICE PREDICTION ERRORS AND REAL ACTIVITY: A REASSESSMENT

Rational expectations, natural-rate macro-models in which aggregate demand disturbances affect the real sector through price prediction errors, while powerful and tractable analytical tools, are often perceived to be of questionable empirical relevance. This paper reexamines the empirical role of price prediction errors in determining the level of real aggregate activity. The approach is distinguished by accounting for aggregate supply-side disturbances and by more careful treatment of natural rates. Contrary to some previous studies, we find considerable empirical support for the hypothesis that demand-driven price level surprises are positively and significantly correlated with aggregate real economic activity.