Bayesian networks for imputation

Summary.  Bayesian networks are particularly useful for dealing with high dimensional statistical problems. They allow a reduction in the complexity of the phenomenon under study by representing joint relationships between a set of variables through conditional relationships between subsets of these variables. Following Thibaudeau and Winkler we use Bayesian networks for imputing missing values. This method is introduced to deal with the problem of the consistency of imputed values: preservation of statistical relationships between variables ( statistical consistency ) and preservation of logical constraints in data ( logical consistency ). We perform some experiments on a subset of anonymous individual records from the 1991 UK population census.     

The historical decline of fertility in Eastern Europe

I test the hypothesis that the growth of autonomy was the factor responsible for the decline of marital fertility in eight Eastern European countries. By growth of autonomy I mean increased control over one's political, personal, religious, economic and reproductive life. This increased control was manifested in revolutions, democratic political reforms, nationalist movements and declining marital fertility. The political reforms were the result of the growth of autonomy but they also accelerated the dissemination of these new ideas among the populace contributing to further growth of autonomy. My hypothesis is generally supported by the historical data.     

The socioeconomic institutions of organizing: Origin, emergence, and reproduction

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the development of a theory of (organizing) institutions primarily relevant for capitalistic market Economics, a theory which significantly improves our general ability to describe, explain and predict organized or organizational action. Six basic institutions—or infrastructures for human (interaction (the market, the corporation, the (social) movement, the association, the circle and the clan)—are deduced, defined and also finally put together in the form of a repertoire of ideal types. Moreover, two meta-institutions (the state, the anarchy) are added to this initial repertoire of six institutions to allow for the introduction of what could be regarded—at least from some premises—as a more general (i.e., societal) level.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Cognitive and behavioral therapies for pathological gambling

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of behavioral and cognitive treatment approaches in the management of pathological gambling disorders. Disappointingly, the literature to date contains only one controlled outcome study in which two differing behavioral techniques were compared. Although research in general has focussed on identifying the nature of cognitive distortions in gambling, findings from these studies have not been systematically translated into treatment programs. It is concluded that methodological limitations including small sample size, absence of control groups, multiple concurrent interventions and poorly defined outcome criteria preclude conclusive statements to be drawn regarding the active ingredient of either behavioral or cognitive strategies. The program offered within the Impulse Disorders Research Centre is outlined.The authors wish to gratefully acknowledge the assistance and contribution of Zachary Steel, Research Assistant, in the preparation of this paper.     

Security branding and digital narrations. Security issues representation on Twitter

In the contemporary multicentric world, sovereign states have to manage carefully the construction of their image, defining their role and aspirations. With the re-definition of the state centric politics, stories become relevant: communication is a form of power, and networked forms of communication are becoming progressively a way to conquer the transnational public spheres. Through strategic narratives of foreign politics, states try to set up the ‘tales’ of international affairs and foreign strategies, to suggest a world vision, a causal interpretation, determining frames that affect transnational actors’ position in the international environment. Sovereign states develop these kind of frame using tools and theories referred to the commercial branding tradition to promote and support their own policies and identity. We decided to investigate how that process is made through information diffusion on digital platforms.

In this work, it has been analyzed the content presented through Twitter posts by the Foreign Ministries accounts of four different States dissimilar for geopolitical positioning and security concerns (USA; Israel; France; Sweden), for a period of three months (9/1/2015-11/30/2015); leading to the identification of different models and characteristic patterns of self-representation.

The thematic content analysis, based on the identification of macrocategories and micro-issues, has led to the identification of different models and characteristic patterns of self-representation, determined by domestic vicissitudes, and has shown some regularities, caused by the branding vocation of autobiographical online contents.     

中国人口学科国际化水平及其影响因素

国际化是学科成熟与发展的一个重要指标。但是作为世界人口第一大国,中国人口学科的国际化并没有发展到一个相对应的水平。在界定了学科国际化概念的基础上,借助问卷调查数据来分析中国人口学科国际化的现状,探讨中国人口科学继续与国际学界融合所面临的困难及其主要原因。结果表明,中国人口学的国际化明显处于不断萎缩的态势,其直接动因和深层次缘由分别是整个人口学界的国际化意识与能力的减弱,以及人口学科文化与制度本身存在的缺陷。加强国际化的学科文化建设与建立相配套的学科制度是提高中国人口学科国际化水平的重要途径。     

Axiomatic measurement of multidimensional well-being inequality: Some distributional questions

This paper focuses on two main issues which are crucial for improving on the analysis of multidimensional inequality: the effect of both the dispersion of well-being attributes across individuals and the interaction among attributes on the measurement of multidimensional well-being. To approach these distributional questions we rely on the Atkinson, Kolm, Sen (hereafter AKS) methodology, which defines a multidimensional inequality index consistent with the Pigou–Dalton principle. This index can be decomposed into univariate indexes belonging to the class of AKS indexes, and a residual term accounting for the interaction across dimensions. The empirical application investigates the evolution of inequality in well-being across some EU countries between 1994 and 2001.Since the multidimensional index depends on the values assigned to the parameters, we test the sensitivity of the trend in well-being to the degree of inequality aversion on each dimension. Our empirical results summarize the evolution of inequality for the indicators of well-being considered both separately and jointly, over time and across countries.