Why Is Turnout Down?

The monotonic decline in turnout in presidential elections since1960 is the subject of this analysis of survey data. After somecommon explanations for this decline were rejected, it was discoveredthat the decline occurred mainly among low-income and low-educationwhites. Two explanatory hypotheses were examined, but appropriatedata for testing themwere unavailable; however, in the 1970snonvoters were more likely than voters at all income levelsto express dissatisfaction with the political system. Nonvotingwhites are not always a Democratic group, and their voting behavioris unpredictable over time. Their failure to vote may have anespecially significant impact on Democratic party policies,and implies that palliatives like reform of voter registrationlaws may not have the desired effect.