A time series model for cohort data

A univariate time-series model is presented for projecting age- or duration-specific data for recent cohorts. The model is also capable of taking period effects into account, is illustrated using Dutch data on marital fertility rates.     

A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues,methodology and initial results

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the World Bank’s international poverty line. In revising the line, we have sought to minimize changes to the real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs), so as to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank’s twin goals – which were set with respect to that line. In particular, the new line was obtained by inflating the same fifteen national poverty lines – originally used by Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2): 163–184 2009) to construct the $1.25 line – to 2011 prices in local currency units, and then converting them to US dollars using 2011 PPP conversion factors. With a small approximation, this procedure yields a new international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. In combination with other changes described in the paper, this revision leads to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence for 2011: from 14.5 % using the old method to 14.1 % using the new method. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 % of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats and limitations of the approach taken.     

Family Intervention and Health Care Costs for Kansas Medicaid Patients with Schizophrenia

Despite a number of studies investigating the effect of pharmacotherapy on treatment costs for schizophrenia patients, there has been little attention given to the effect of family intervention. In this study, data from the Kansas Medicaid system were used to analyze healthcare costs for 164 schizophrenia patients who had participated in family intervention. Structural equation modeling was used to test two competing views of the role of family intervention in treatment. The results showed that a model including direct and indirect effects of family intervention provided a better fit to the data. Family intervention had a significant indirect effect on general medical costs (through other psychological treatment) that showed a savings of $586 for each unit increase in the provision of these services. In addition, the total indirect effects for family intervention showed a $580 savings for general medical costs and $796 for hospitalization costs (for each unit increase).     

A powerful test for uniformity to detect highly peaked alternativedensities

A new class of statistical tests for uniformity based on sample ranges is proposed to detect a uniform density contaminated by a density with one or more high peaks. These kinds of alternatives occur quite frequently, especially in physics. It is shown that the proposed tests arc consistent and have high Pitman asymptotic relative efficiencies. Results of a Monte Carlo power study indicate that they, compared with other tests of uniformity, possess good power properties.A comparative study of various tests is also conducted using real data. An effcient algorithm for computing out test statistic and a table of percentage points are given, providing a practical guide for using the new test.     

A model for predicting dating violence: anxious attachment, angry temperament, and need for relationship control

Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test a model incorporating anxious attachment, angry temperament, and attempts to control one's partner as predictors of the severity and frequency of dating violence. To date, these concepts have not been clearly established as having direct or indirect effects on dating violence. It was hypothesized that anxious attachment and angry temperament would influence the need for and attempts to control one's partner which, in turn, would predict a person's actual use of force. College students (213 males; 199 females) completed measures assessing these constructs. Cross-validation was accomplished through using two successive freshmen samples. Statistics indicated the application of the model fit well to both samples. All specified paths were significant except for the direct path from anxious attachment to need for control in the second sample. While exploratory, this model seemed satisfactory for explaining potentially causal relationships of attachment, anger, and attempts to control one's partner leading to dating violence.     

Handling Missing Values in Longitudinal Panel Data With Multiple Imputation

This article offers an applied review of key issues and methods for the analysis of longitudinal panel data in the presence of missing values. The authors consider the unique challenges associated with attrition (survey dropout), incomplete repeated measures, and unknown observations of time. Using simulated data based on 4 waves of the Marital Instability Over the Life Course Study (n = 2,034), they applied a fixed effect regression model and an event‐history analysis with time‐varying covariates. They then compared results for analyses with nonimputed missing data and with imputed data both in long and in wide structures. Imputation produced improved estimates in the event‐history analysis but only modest improvements in the estimates and standard errors of the fixed effects analysis. Factors responsible for differences in the value of imputation are examined, and recommendations for handling missing values in panel data are presented.     

The responsiveness of state legislatures and their agenda concerning gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender interests

Republicanism, as opposed to direct democracy, has been theorized to protect minority rights. Direct democracy with its majority rule is unlikely to serve the interests of minorities particularly if their interests are perceived to conflict with the majority's interests. However, Republican Institutions vary in features that affect their responsiveness to majoritarian preferences. This article examines whether specific legislative features associated with responsiveness (majoritarian participation, constituent ties and professionalism) affect the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) agenda in state legislatures. The findings suggest that the importance of these features is dependent on the ideological leanings of the state. The findings also suggest that some features expand both pro- and anti-GLBT agendas, and the effects of professionalism are ambiguous.     

Maternal Functioning, Time, and Money: The World of Work and Welfare

Numerous studies have assessed families' employment and financial stability following welfare reform. Yet little research has addressed whether welfare and work transitions are linked with other changes in family functioning. Using a representative sample of approximately 2,000 low-income urban families from the Three-City Study, analyses assessed whether mothers' welfare and employment experiences over a two-year period following welfare reform were related to changes in family well-being. Lagged regression models controlling for family characteristics and earlier levels of functioning found that moving into employment and stable employment (of 30 hours or more per week) were linked to substantial increases in income and improvements in mothers' psychological well-being. Movements into employment also were associated with declines in financial strain and food insecurity. Sustained or initiated welfare receipt was related to relative declines in income, physical health, and psychological well-being, but also to improved access to medical care. In contrast, mothers' welfare and work experiences showed very limited relations to changes in the quality of parenting or of children's home environments. These patterns were similar for families with young children and those with adolescent children. Results suggest that parenting behaviors are more resistant to change than are maternal emotional and economic functioning.