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1.
CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE 下载免费PDF全文
Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24) 相似文献
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AbstractIn general, survival data are time-to-event data, such as time to death, time to appearance of a tumor, or time to recurrence of a disease. Models for survival data have frequently been based on the proportional hazards model, proposed by Cox. The Cox model has intensive application in the field of social, medical, behavioral and public health sciences. In this paper we propose a more efficient sampling method of recruiting subjects for survival analysis. We propose using a Moving Extreme Ranked Set Sampling (MERSS) scheme with ranking based on an easy-to-evaluate baseline auxiliary variable known to be associated with survival time. This paper demonstrates that this approach provides a more powerful testing procedure as well as a more efficient estimate of hazard ratio than that based on simple random sampling (SRS). Theoretical derivation and simulation studies are provided. The Iowa 65+ Rural study data are used to illustrate the methods developed in this paper. 相似文献
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Lynn Jamieson Michael Anderson David McCrone Frank Bechhofer Robert Stewart Yaojun Li 《The Sociological review》2002,50(3):356-377
Popular commentators on marriage and the family often interpret the increase in heterosexual couples living together without marrying as reduced willingness to create and honour life‐long partnerships. Survey and in‐depth interviews with samples of 20–29 year olds living in an urban area of Scotland finds little support for the postulated link between growing cohabitation and a weakened sense of commitment to long‐term arrangements. Most of the cohabiting couples strongly stressed their ‘commitment’. Socially acceptable vocabularies of motive undoubtedly influenced answers but interviews helped to explore deeper meanings. Many respondents’ views were consistent with previous research predictions of a weakening sense of any added value of marriage. At the same time, some respondents continued to stress the social significance of the distinction between marriage and cohabitation, consistent with research interpreting cohabitation as a ‘try and see’ strategy part‐way to the perceived full commitment of marriage. The notion that ‘marriage is better for children’ continued to have support among respondents. While, on average, cohabiting couples had lower incomes and poorer employment situations than married couples, only very extreme adverse circumstances were presented as making marriage ‘too risky’. Pregnancy‐provoked cohabitation was not always in this category. Cohabitation was maintained because marriage would ‘make no difference’ or because they ‘had not yet got round to’ marriage. Most respondents were more wary of attempting to schedule or plan in their personal life than in other domains and cohabitees’ attitudes to partnership, including their generally ‘committed’ approach, do not explain the known greater vulnerability of this group to dissolution. 相似文献
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In light of use by airline unions of partial-strike tactics, such as concerted refusals to bid for overtime work and so-called
” CHAOS” tactics involving unannounced refusals to fly after passengers have been ticketed and are ready to board, the authors
examine whether the Railway Labor Act (RLA) should be interpreted to permit employers to discipline employees for engaging
in such tactics, or whether these are a protected form of economic pressure. Although in many respects bargaining duties and
economic weapons under the RLA are read consonant with precedents under the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) (which governs
all industries other than rail and air transport), there are a few decisions suggesting that during the period when self-help
may be resorted to, employees can engage in partial strike activities as long as they violate no court order but are subject
to permanent replacement in limited circumstances. These decisions, the authors submit, fail to take account of Supreme Court
decsions since the 1930s that some economic pressures by unions, such as slowdowns and sitins, may not violate the labor laws
but nor are they protected by those laws so as to immunize partial strikers from employer discipline. These decisions are
not based on unique features of the NLRA. Rather, they give recognition to the background assumptions of Congress that employers
may act to protect their property interests as long as they do not run afoul of NLRA or RLA protections and that employees
who engage in partial-strike activities are subject to employer discipline even where not strictly necessary to maintain operations.
Moreover, these tactics skew the bargaining process by giving employees an essentially risk-free gambit to pressure their
economic position through planned disruption of carrier operations.
Professor Estreicher is also labor and employment counsel to O’Melveny & Myers, LLP. The views expressed herein are the authors’
and should not be attributed to any organization. Hannah Breshin and Tom Jerman of O’Melveny & Myers, assisted the authors
with this article. We also thank Professor Herbert Northrup for his helpful comments. 相似文献
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