Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Summary.  We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.     

A circular-cone test for testing homogeneity against a simple tree order

Several methods exist for the problem of testing the equality of several treatments against the one-sided alternative that the treatments are better than the control. These methods include Dunnett's test, Bartholomew's likelihood-ratio test, the Abelson-Tukey-Schaafsma-Smid optimal-contrast test, and the multiple-contrast test of Mukerjee, Robertson, and Wright. A new test is proposed based on an approximation of the likelihood-ratio test of Bartholomew. This test involves using a circular cone in place of the alternative-hypothesis cone. The circular-cone test has excellent power characteristics similar to those of Bartholomew's test. Moreover, it has the advantages of being simpler to compute and may be used with unequal sample sizes.     

Unemployment and Fatherhood: Gender,Culture and National Context

Hegemonic representations of masculinity and dominant images of fatherhood have usually been linked to the domain of work. This article explores the experiences of men under the hardship of unemployment and the impact of these experiences on the construction of their gender identities, specifically on the construction of their fatherhood identity. In addition, the article examines how culture and national context affect the interrelationship between unemployment and fatherhood. Drawing on a post‐structural constructivist theoretical perspective, the article describes a qualitative study of low‐income unemployed Palestinian fathers in Israel. The study examines three areas of interest: perceptions of fatherhood, the experience of unemployment and the impact of unemployment on the construction of fatherhood. On the theoretical level, the article proposes a conceptualization of the relationship between unemployment and fatherhood. It argues that in order to generalize the impact of unemployment on fatherhood, we must first examine the context in which gendered and cultural perceptions of fatherhood are embedded. On a policy level, the article offers some recommendations for developing more contextualized, gender‐ and cultural‐sensitive policies for unemployed fathers.     

Access to Water in the Slums of Sub‐Saharan Africa

This article reviews the changing perspectives for improving access to water in the slums of developing countries, especially in sub‐Saharan Africa. While much of the literature continues to maintain an aversion to state‐led urban development policies, there is now increasing emphasis on the importance of informal, small‐scale providers and communitarian initiatives, following the many failures of privatisation. The article argues that market‐oriented solutions are inappropriate for sub‐Saharan African countries where over two‐thirds of the urban population live in squatter settlements with multidimensional challenges.     

A reflected feature space for CART

We present an algorithm for learning oblique decision trees, called HHCART(G). Our decision tree combines learning concepts from two classification trees, HHCART and Geometric Decision Tree (GDT). HHCART(G) is a simplified HHCART algorithm that uses linear structure in the training examples, captured by a modified GDT angle bisector, to define splitting directions. At each node, we reflect the training examples with respect to the modified angle bisector to align this linear structure with the coordinate axes. Searching axis parallel splits in this reflected feature space provides an efficient and effective way of finding oblique splits in the original feature space. Our method is much simpler than HHCART because it only considers one reflected feature space for node splitting. HHCART considers multiple reflected feature spaces for node splitting making it more computationally intensive to build. Experimental results show that HHCART(G) is an effective classifier, producing compact trees with similar or better results than several other decision trees, including GDT and HHCART trees.     

The role of the welfare state in supporting economic transitions following family bereavement: Comparing Britain and Israel

Despite its centrality to the experience of death and grief, it is only in recent years that the economic burden following family bereavement has been recognized by social care professionals and scholars. Based on the realization that death and bereavement are grounded in social context, and assuming this economic burden is a multifaceted phenomenon, the present study compares the British and Israeli welfare systems in three policy settings: social security, funeral services, and bereavement leave. The findings suggest that while in both systems bereavement and especially widowhood is considered a deserving category, recent pressures for restructuring the British welfare state have been successful in shifting provision from the state to the market. The findings also show that in both cases, albeit to a lesser extent in Israel, current policy measures are not fully aligned with critical scholarship on bereavement and its financial consequences, nor with socio‐economic and demographic trends. These disparities are addressed using the notion of disenfranchised grief and by emphasizing the pivotal, although often overlooked role of the welfare state in constituting it. Lastly, the differences between the two cases are discussed in terms of the powerful role of Judaism in shaping Israeli policy.     

Replica localization in East Asia: the case of the Asian hedge fund industry

Hedge funds exemplify complex finance in the global economy and are appearing in diverse national settings. One question that follows is whether hedge funds in the Asian region have been localized and exhibit significant differences to their US/UK counterparts or whether there is predominantly one global model. The analysis here point to the importance of what is called replica localization, wherein local control has entailed little deviation from the practices of Anglo-American hedge funds. Evidence generated from databases and interviews confirms the largely equivalent structures and strategies found in the new Asian hedge fund sector. The significance is that a small but growing Asian financial space has been carved out that is funded by Asian capital and managed by Asian elites but matches external models. To further delineate globalized finance, comparative research is needed to determine when and why complex finance is either present or absent outside of Anglo-American economies.     

Short Break and Respite Services for Disabled Children in England: Comparing Children's and Parents' Perspectives of Their Impact on Children

Researchers, health and social care workers often seek to understand the perspectives of children; but gathering views directly from children can present difficulties. Parents are often asked to provide accounts of children's feelings or opinions on the assumption that their proxy reports are accurate and unproblematic. This qualitative thematic analysis of open‐question responses from 352 parents and 73 disabled children examines their accounts of the impact of short break services on disabled children. Participants' perspectives differed; children tended to describe immediate outcomes such as enjoying activities and participation; parents acknowledged these, but focused on longer term developmental outcomes for children.     

Disability and employment policy in the Israeli welfare state: between exclusion and inclusion

Based on the social model(s) of disability, this article seeks to analyse the historical development of Israeli employment policy toward disabled people during the first decade and a half of its existence (1948–1965). Findings from primary and secondary sources suggest that throughout this period disabled people, mainly immigrants, found themselves at the lowest echelons of Israeli society and the labour market. Furthermore, the Israeli welfare state offers an interesting case study of the gap between a welfare state’s stated adherence to social justice and the more limited, and even contradictory, outcomes of its policies. Our discussion suggests that a valuable way of reframing our findings can be found in the critique of de-commodification as an inadequate concept and in the use of related concepts such as re-commodification and quasi-commodification.