CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Art in Social Movements: Shantytown Women's Protest in Pinochet's Chile

How social movements use art is an understudied question in the social movements literature. Ethnographic research on the use of art by the prodemocracy movement in Pinochet's Chile suggests that art plays a very important role in social movements, which use it for framing, to attract resources, to communicate information about themselves, to foster useful emotions, and as a symbol (for communicating a coherent identity, marking membership, and cementing commitment to the movement).     

Socioeconomic and Demographic Predictors of Potable Water and Sanitation Access in Ghana

Lack of access to potable water and good sanitation is still one of the most challenging public health concerns of the twenty-first century despite steady progress over recent decades. Almost a billion people globally lack access to safe water; over two billion live without adequate sanitation facilities. The challenge is even more daunting for Sub-Saharan Africa where coverage levels for both potable water and sanitation remain critically low. The urgent need to address the issue calls for adequate understanding of the socio-economic dimensions. Using the 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, we investigated the socio-economic and demographic factors associated with access to potable water and improved sanitation facilities. Our generalized linear models reveal that income, education, household size, and region are significant predictors of improved water and sanitation access. Our discussion and conclusion sections highlight the implications of the study results for water policy formulation and implementation in Ghana, and broadly for other developing countries.     

A theory of unanimous jury voting with an ambiguous likelihood

Theory and Decision - We examine collective decision-making in a jury voting game under the unanimity rule when voters have ambiguous beliefs. Unlike in existing studies (Ellis in Theoretical...     

Context Matters: Differential Effects of Discrimination by Environmental Context on Depressive Symptoms Among College Students of Color

Clinical Social Work Journal - Experiences with more subtle racism – which have been called microaggressions – have a host of negative effects on health, mental health, educational...