Detecting seasonal unit roots in a structural time series model

In this paper, we propose to detect seasonal unit roots within the context of a structural time series model. Such a model is often found to be useful in practice. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that our method works well. We illustrate our approach for several quarterly macroeconomic time series variables.     

Informatization, voter turnout and income inequality

In recent years, voter turnout has been decreasing in most industrial countries, and about 40% of all electors abstain from voting. This may affect income inequality and the GDP growth rate through a redistribution policy determined by majority voting. In this paper, we explore the reasons for this continuing decrease in voter turnout and assess its social costs. We conclude that informatization lowers voter turnout by generating an information overload, and that a decrease in voter turnout lowers GDP growth by limiting income redistribution.      

Cultural Hegemony of Singapore among ASEAN Countries: Globalization and Cultural Policy

Abstract: Singapore had been called a Cultural Desert since its independence in 1965, but from the beginning of 1990s, there has been a significant change. The Singapore Government started to call their city a “Global City for the Arts”, making numerous cultural policy changes. They also worked on various cultural experiments to establish their cultural leadership or hegemony among Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. The development of arts policies, cultural industries and people's positive commitment towards cultural exchanges are examples of this change. Singapore therefore is now playing the role of the cultural hub among the ASEAN countries. As an example of this, the present study discusses “Esplanade”, which opened as a huge cultural complex in October 2002. Then the paper will also discuss both bright and dark sides of the cultural development in Singapore. As a conclusion, this paper discusses the possibility of the cultural contribution of Singapore to ASEAN countries, in spite of having serious epistemological discontinuity among ASEAN.     

Lifestyles and identity maintenance among gay Japanese-American males

An exploratory study of thirteen Japanese-American gay men residing in the Los Angeles area found that those men who had disclosed their sexual orientation to family members were more likely to express more positive attitudes concerning a variety of issues. Detailed personal accounts of these patterns are presented along with discussions of how Asian homosexuals maintain their “double-minority” identities as both Japanese and gay.     

Bayesian sample‐size determination methods considering both worthwhileness and unpromisingness for exploratory two‐arm randomized clinical trials with binary endpoints

A randomized exploratory clinical trial comparing an experimental treatment with a control treatment on a binary endpoint is often conducted to make a go or no‐go decision. Such an exploratory trial needs to have an adequate sample size such that it will provide convincing evidence that the experimental treatment is either worthwhile or unpromising relative to the control treatment. In this paper, we propose three new sample‐size determination methods for an exploratory trial, which utilize the posterior probabilities calculated from predefined efficacy and inefficacy criteria leading to a declaration of the worthwhileness or unpromisingness of the experimental treatment. Simulation studies, including numerical investigation, showed that all three methods could declare the experimental treatment as worthwhile or unpromising with a high probability when the true response probability of the experimental treatment group is higher or lower, respectively, than that of the control treatment group.     

Wage and Productivity Differentials in Japan: The Role of Labor Market Mechanisms

This paper aims at explaining two stylized facts of the Lost Decade in Japan: rising wage inequalities and increasing firm‐level productivity differentials. We build a model where firms can choose between efficiency wages with endogenous effort and competitive wages, and show that it can replicate those facts. Using Japanese microeconomic data, we find support for the existence of efficiency wages in one group of firms and competitive wages in the other group. Based on those results, a simulation shows that the share of firms using efficiency wages has declined, within sectors, during the Lost Decade, as predicted by the model.     

A possible discrepancy between the exposed and the whole population depending on range-size and trap-spacing in vole populations

Conclusion From a field study for the vole population (Clethrionomys rufocanus) in Hokkaido in the late summer of 1965, it has been proved that the range length may decrease from 25 to 18 m by the gross along with the rise from 20 to 100 in the density level per acre, and hence that an appreciable discrepancy, due to underestimation, may be produced in estimates of the exposed as compared to the whole population at an outbreaking density as high as 100 on a plan with trap-spacing 10 m. In consideration of this together with my preceding results, the strict terms that we may enough approximate the whole one by estimating the exposed seem likely to be that the ratio of range radius to trap spacing, supposing a range is circular, should be near 2 or more at either ordinary or outbreaking densities, to say in the concrete, that the trap spacing as close as 5 m or so in grid is desirable with this vole, perhaps with most other voles.     

A characterization of the Walras rule

This paper has three purposes. First, we refine the characterization of the Walras rule proposed by Nagahisa (JET 1991) over a more natural and simple domain than the one he employed. We show that the Walras rule is the only social choice rule defined over the domain and satisfying Individual Rationality, Pareto Efficiency, and Local Independence. Second, assuming endowments to be collectively owned, we show that the Walras rule operated from equal division is the only social choice rule satisfying No Envy, Pareto Efficiency, and Local Independence. Third, we show that for every social choice rule satisfying Individual Rationality and Pareto Efficiency, Local Independence is equivalent to a condition of Nash implementation with a game form satisfying convexity.This article is a revised version of Toyama University Working Paper No. 141. We are grateful to Professors William Thomson, Shinsuke Nakamura, Tomoichi Shinotsuka and two anonymous referees for their detailed comments. Nagahisa is grateful for hospitality of the economics department of the University of Rochester.     

How to Detect Altruists: Experiments Using a Zero-Acquaintance Video Presentation Paradigm

Journal of Nonverbal Behavior - In this study, we investigated the cognitive processes and nonverbal cues used to detect altruism in three experiments based on a zero-acquaintance video...