Dynamically Consistent Preferences with Quadratic Beliefs

This article characterizes a family of preference relations over uncertain prospects that (a) are dynamically consistent in the Machina sense and, moreover, for which the updated preferences are also members of this family and (b) can simultaneously accommodate Ellsberg- and Allais-type paradoxes.Replacing the "mixture independence" axiom by "mixture symmetry" proposed by Chew, Epstein, and Segal (1991) for decision making under objective risk, and requiring that for some partition of the state space the agent perceives ambiguity and so prefers a randomization over outcomes across that partition (proper uncertainty aversion), preferences can be represented by a (proper) quadratic functional. This representation may be further refined to allow a separation between the quantification of beliefs and risk preferences that is closed under dynamically consistent updating.     

Alternative Question Forms for Attitude Scale Questions in Telephone Interviews

The absence of visual aids in telephone interviews has led investigatorsto seek methods for asking questions which are commonly accompaniedby aids in personal interviews. This study experimentally comparedtwo approaches to asking seven-point scale attitude questionsin a national (N = 4,300) telephone health survey. A randomhalf-sample received the attitude questions as single-step numericalselection tasks. The questions were administered to the otherhalf-sample in two stages, the first asking for a general verbalstatement of attitude and the second asking for a more detailedspecification. The two question forms produced comparable resultsin univariate distributions. Items administered with the one-stepform showed slightly higher intercorrelations. This study representsone step in the process of empirically testing data collectionprocedures which have been deemed necessary in the rich folkloreof survey research. Overall, the results show more comparabilitythan might be anticipated, given the multiple differences betweenthe forms.     

Do worker absences affect productivity? The case of teachers

This article studies the impact of teacher absences on education. Using data spanning three academic years about 285 teachers and 8,631 predominantly economically disadvantaged students from a United States urban school district, it tests assumptions that a substantial portion of teachers' absences is discretionary and that these absences reduce productivity – students' mathematics scores. Since absent teachers are typically replaced by less qualified substitutes, instructional intensity and consistency may decline: ten days of teacher absence reduce students' achievement score by about 3.3 per cent of a standard deviation – enough to lower some students' designation in the state proficiency system and, thus, their motivation to succeed.     

A study of expediting practices in manufacturing firms

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an empirical investigation of one of the most common yet least optimized production management practices—expediting. The intention of this study was to generate quantitative insight into issues that underlie expediting decision making, such as the relative frequency of various causes of expediting, commonly used expediting strategies and tactics, and the interaction of expediting and the production scheduling environment in use. The study centered around a survey sent to 1768 manufacturing staff personnel, with 182 usable questionnaires returned. It is hoped that the data and conclusions presented in this paper will be of use to production management researchers who are interested in expediting as a managerial decision.