Assessing Risk of Victimization through Epidemiological Concepts: An Alternative Analytic Strategy Applied to Routine Activities Theory*

Cet article fait appel aux concepts et aux techniques de l'épidémiologie pour examiner la capacité de la théorie des activités routinières à expliquer le risque de victimisation criminelle. En allant au-delà de l'identification des facteurs de risque de victimisation, les auteurs se demandent comment les changements des facteurs de causalité pourraient influer sur ce risque dans la population générale. lis trouvent que les prédicteurs établis avec des méthodes plus traditionnelles expliquent la plus grande partie du risque, mais que certains sont moins importants pour la compréhension du risque de la population dans l'ensemble en raison du petit nombre de personnes qui leur est associé, tandis que d'autres sont plus utiles parce qu'ils s'appliquent à un plus grand nombre de personnes.
This paper draws upon concepts and techniques from epidemiology to examine the ability of routine activities theory to account for the risk of criminal victimization. Moving beyond the identification of risk factors for victimization, we ask how changes to causal factors might affect the risk of victimization in the general population. We find that predictors identified with more traditional methods account for the bulk of the risk, but that some are less important for understanding overall population risk because of the small numbers of people associated with them, while others are more helpful because they apply to larger numbers.     

WHY THE DEMOCRAT-REPUBLICAN PARTISANSHIP GAP VARIES FROM POLL TO POLL

Polls taken in late 1980 and 1984 varied by up to 20 pointsin the spread they reported between Democratic and Republicanidentifiers. We found three systematic and sizable differencesacross polls: polls that sample only voters, polls that emphasize"today" or the present in their question wording, and pollsthat are taken close to election day (at least in circumstanceslike those of 1984) tend to favor the party currently advantagedin the presidential race.     

SHIFTING PRODUCTION BOTTLENECKS: CAUSES,CURES, AND CONUNDRUMS

We examine the phenomenon of shifting production bottlenecks from an analytic perspective. We quantify the propensity of a work center to be a bottleneck, defined as maximal queue length, using a simple Jackson production network model. Comparison of the analytic model against an empirical simulation-based model shows that the two are in good agreement. A scalar measure of bottleneck shiftiness is proposed and used to investigate several policies for mitigating shiftiness. Simulation experiments show that several commonly observed managerial policies for coping with shifting bottlenecks actually increase shiftiness, but that shiftiness declines when the capacity of nonbottleneck resources is increased.     

MORE INFORMATION IS NOT ALWAYS BETTER: THE CASE OF VOLUNTARY PROVISION OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY

We use a new U.S. survey on pro‐environmental behaviors, attitudes, and knowledge and find that individuals engage in activities that they believe are more effective in reducing carbon emissions, regardless of whether or not these beliefs are accurate. We find that low provision of the public good is greater among people who believe they cannot do much for the environment and do not consider themselves environmentalists. A policy implication of our results is that the effect of more accurate information on the provision of the public good is ambiguous. (JEL Q50, Q54, C10)     

Separately Together: Working Reflexively as a Team

Discussions of reflexivity tend to ignore issues of practice, and those addressing practice are likely to presume a sole researcher. In this paper, we respond to the need for attention to reflexive practice in qualitative research teams. Drawing on our experience of working ‘separately together’, we identify reflexivity as an embedded feature of team-based research. We discuss how reflexivity can be used as a collective interpretive resource in the construction of the research subject/object, and we highlight reflexive possibilities unique to team-based research. We include in the article a presentation of the orientations and research practices that supported our reflexive teamwork.     

Marital splits and income changes: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

We provide new evidence about what happens to people's incomes when their or their parents' marital union dissolves using longitudinal data from waves 1--4 of the British Household Panel Survey. Marital splits are accompanied by substantial declines in real income for separating wives and children on average, whereas separating husbands' real income on average changes much less. Results are shown to be robust to the choice of income de®nition and degree of economies of scale built into the household equivalence scale, and are validated with information about respondents' assessments of how their personal ®nancial circumstances changed. In addition we analyse the extent to which the welfare state mitigates the size of the income loss for women and children relative to men, and document the accompanying changes in social assistance bene®t receipt and paid work, and maintenance income receipt and payment.     

Other Voices

This column is devoted to informing VGQ readers of important articles in other journals. All articles are published by the American Personnel and Guidance Association unless otherwise noted. Single copies of back issues may be ordered from APGA Publication Sales, Two Skyline Place, Suite 400, 5203 Leesburg Pike, Falls Church, Virginia 22041.     

Age at immigration and educational attainment

Cette analyse des données d'une étude sur la mobilité canadienne révèle que le niveau d'éducation atteint par les immigrants qui sont arrivés au Canada à temps pour suivre les cours d'école primaire, semble être plus élevé que le niveau atteint par ceux qui sont arrivés avant ou après cet âge. Toutefois, comme la plupart des différences entre les catégories d'âge à L'arrivée ne sont guère significatives, statistiquement parlant, et comme les valeurs des mesures concises de la relation globale sont peu élevées, il y a lieu de douter si L'âge à L'arrivée exerce en soi un effet direct sur le niveau d'éducation atteint. Ces résultats sont en opposition avec ceux publiés par Inbar et donnent très peu d'appui à celui-ci, dont les conclusions font croire que L'âge à L'arrivée entraîne des conséquences différentielles pour L'acculturation. Analysis of Canadian Mobility Study data reveals that educational attainment tends to be higher among those who immigrated to Canada during grade school years than among those who immigrated earlier or later. However, as most differences between age-at-immigration categories are not statistically significant and as values for summary measures of the overall relationship are low, there is reason to doubt that age at immigration, in itself, exercises a direct effect on educational attainment. These findings contrast sharply with those reported by Inbar and provide little support for his conclusion that age at immigration has differential consequences for acculturation.     

WHY DON'T POOR COUNTRIES CATCH UP? A CROSS-NATIONAL TEST OF AN INSTITUTIONAL EXPLANATION

Early neoclassical analyses predicted that poor countries would grow faster than wealthy countries, because of technological advances and diminishing returns to capital in the latter. The reverse has occurred: poor countries are falling back rather than catching up. We suggest here that deficient institutions underlie this divergence. Employing various indicators of institutional quality, including the rule of law, the pervasiveness of corruption, and the risk of expropriation and contract repudiation, we show that the ability of poor countries to catch up is determined in large part by the institutional environment in which economic activity in these countries takes place. (JEL O00, O10)