Does gold act as a safe haven against exchange rate fluctuations? The case of Pakistan rupee

Investors often look for a refuge to avoid undesirable exposures to risk during period of extreme downturns in currency returns. We investigate daily gold and rupee exchange rates depreciation against set of currencies over the period of 1992–2015. Using wavelets at multiple time horizons; we find that gold act as a consistent short run hedge against exchange rate hence validating the exchange rate destruction hypothesis. This finding is helpful for speculators in their decision making while taking long and short positions accordingly. This finding suggests that central bank also need to keep other safe haven assets in reserves because the hedging ability of gold is only limited to short run. Further, the role of gold in providing protection against currency risks is also confirmed using quantile regression. These results assist portfolio managers and governments in formulating effectual diversification strategy for preserving investment portfolio during extreme event condition. Our results also suggest that gold has a lead relationship with exchange rate; however, this relationship switches over specific time intervals. This finding is of major concern for policy makers in determining the extent of stabilization in gold prices to bring consistency to exchange rate. Finally, the Granger coherence coefficients confirm that the strength of the causal relationship varies across over all frequencies. These conclusions have important implications for policy makers, economic analysts, portfolio managers and institutional investors.     

Motives for sharing illness experiences on Twitter: conversations of parents with children diagnosed with cancer

A patient- and family-centred approach in paediatric health care is important because parents are involved in making key decisions about their child’s health care and advocating for the best interest of the child. Parents and family members are increasingly turning to the internet to find and actively share information about their child’s health care. Twitter is one of many online platforms used by parents of children diagnosed with cancer to share information related to their child’s cancer experience. Existing research suggests that there is a need to better understand the motives for using Twitter for sharing content about a child’s cancer experience. Furthermore, there is a lack of theoretical frameworks for characterizing those motives. In this paper, we identify key themes of tweets posted by parents of children diagnosed with cancer and align those themes with motives inspired by the well-studied Everyday Life Information Seeking framework. We propose a new motive in addition to those associated with the framework and suggest that information can be shared for endogenous reasons as well as to meet the needs of others. This paper contributes an increased understanding of motives for sharing information about a child’s cancer journey and extends a theoretical framework for building further knowledge in this area.     

The Performance of Gaussian and non Gaussian dynamic models in assessing market risk: The Implications for risk management

The developing markets are more volatile, unstable illiquid, and more prone to the external shocks. The non Gaussian VaR model gives more accurate risk models than Gaussian VaR models. Hence, the purpose of this study is to test if and how non Gaussian VaR models are comparatively better fit for risk modeling of developing markets than the Gaussian VaR models. The study measures the market risk for the daily closing price of Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index over the period of 2004–2016. The evaluation of VaR models suggests that non Gaussian dynamic model outperformed the Gaussian VaR models in developing markets.     

Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan

The motive of a typical discretionary central banker to accommodate excess inflation (inflation bias) is either to stabilize real growth or to spur it beyond natural rate. To what extent inflation bias helps to materialize this intention warrants empirical investigation. A more direct empirical probe into this issue, however, requires observable inflation bias indicators, which we model through desirable and threshold inflation rates as well as their respective society’s preferences. While examining the effects of inflation bias for a typical case of the discretionary monetary policy strategy of Pakistan, we found that contrary to the desired boost/stabilization in real growth, the policy (via. inflation bias) produced counterproductive results. Inflation bias was not merely ineffective in inducing real growth but significantly destabilized it. Moreover, the results, which are robust to different inflation bias indicators and subsample analysis, indicate that the higher the inflation bias, the higher is the intensity (magnitude) of its destabilizing effect and vice versa. This suggests that a policy that would minimize/constrain inflation bias would be a better choice as it would not only help achieve low and stable inflation but also a sustainable real economic growth.     

Growing up global and equal? Inequality trends among world children, 1980–2005

Children are increasingly expected to grow up global yet their worldwide inequality is understudied; while countries’ incomes may be converging, it is unclear whether children's outcomes also do. This paper investigates the recent trends in global inequality among children. Findings show a fall in resource inequality, driven by Asia's exponential economic growth and Africa's slowing fertility trends. Paradoxically, this resource convergence occurred alongside divergence in infant mortality. Such findings have three implications. First, they caution against assuming automatic convergence in children's well-being in response to income convergence between nations. Second, they illustrate how national differences in age dependency account for global inequality among children. Third and more broadly, they stress the importance of demographic and policy – in addition to economic – convergence in bridging substantive inequality among the world‘s children.     

Pursuit of happiness: Subjective well-being of immigrants and natives

Recent studies establish that subjective well-being plays a significant part in the adjustment of immigrants in the host country and that after facing the initial costs of migration, immigrants experience levels of well-being similar to natives across generations. Using two surveys, including the World Values Survey as well as the joint World Values Survey and European Value Survey, we, however, find that variations in subjective well-being of immigrants and natives persist across generations, with second-generation immigrants experiencing higher differences. This finding can be attributed to an increase in the aspirations of second-generation immigrants. In developed regions, both first-generation and second-generation immigrants have a higher probability of reporting greater subjective well-being than natives, which can be attributed to an improved standard of living among immigrants. Additionally, we look at the association between holding immigration-friendly attitudes and the subjective well-being of natives. Our study provides important policy insights.