Determination of Less-Than-Lifetime Exposures to Point Source Emissions

This paper presents a method of estimating long-term exposures to point source emissions. The method consists of a Monte Carlo exposure model (PSEM or Point Source Exposure Model) that combines data on population mobility and mortality with information on daily activity patterns. The approach behind the model can be applied to a wide variety of exposure scenarios. In this paper, PSEM is used to characterize the range and distribution of lifetime equivalent doses received by inhalation of air contaminated by the emissions of a point source. The output of the model provides quantitative information on the dose, age, and gender of highly exposed individuals. The model is then used in an example risk assessment. Finally, future uses of the model's approach are discussed.     

An organizational model to distinguish between and integrate research and evaluation activities in a theory based evaluation

Theory-based evaluation (TBE) is an evaluation method that shows how a program will work under certain conditions and has been supported as a viable, evidence-based option in cases where randomized trials or high-quality quasi-experiments are not feasible. Despite the model's widely accepted theoretical appeal there are few examples of its well-implemented use, probably due to time and money limitations necessary for planning and a confusion over the definitions between research and evaluation functions and roles. In this paper, we describe the development of a theory-based evaluation design in a Math and Science Partnership (MSP) research project funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Through this work we developed an organizational model distinguishing between and integrating evaluation and research functions, explicating personnel roles and responsibilities, and highlighting connections between research and evaluation work. Although the research and evaluation components operated on independent budgeting, staffing, and implementation activities, we were able to combine datasets across activities to allow us to assess the integrity of the program theory, not just the hypothesized connections within it. This model has since been used for proposal development and has been invaluable as it creates a research and evaluation plan that is seamless from the beginning.     

Communique of the National Sample Survey of Fertility and Birth Control (abstract)

The State Family Planning Commission in China surveyed 2,151,212 people, including 459,269 married women aged 15-57 on fertility and birth control, in July, 1988 from 30 provinces and other regions. From 1980- 87 the average total fertility rate was 2.47 vs. 4.01 in the 1970s. Fertility rates in the 80s were 1.33 for cities, 2.43 for towns, and 2.84 for villages. 1st parity births rose from 44.15% to 52.55% from Jan. to July of 1988 and 2nd parity births were about 30%. Women aged 50-57 had an average of 5.27 children while women aged 45-59 had an average of 4.44 children. 71.21% of childbearing-age women use contraception: 10.99% use male sterilization, 38.24% use female sterilization, 41.48% use IUDs, 4.91% oral pills, 2.65% condoms, 0.42% external contraceptives, and 1.32% use other methods. 13.79% of the married, childbearing-age couples have one-child certificates. The population of China as of April 1989 was 1.1 billion. In 1988 the birth rate was 20.78/1000 and the death rate was 6.58/1000.     

Bulletin of major figures from manual tabulation of the national sample survey on fertility and birth control of China

The State Council, the State Family Planning Commission, the State Statistical Bureau, the State Planning Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Public Security of China together carried out a national sample survey on fertility and birth control in China in 1988. The survey was carried out in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The Tibetan Autonomous Region and the Hainan Province were surveyed for the 1st time, but the results from Tibet were not collected in time for this publication. The main respondents were the married women at age 15-57, with 2,114,591 people surveyed and a sampling proportion of 1.98/1000. This article describes the survey and its results according to birth rate, parity composition, and rural-urban fertility differences. Birth rates, mortality rates, and natural increase rates from high to low orders were tabulated for: urban areas, farms, towns, rural townships, and suburban townships. With the first 1/2 of 1988 birth rates tabulated, it was estimated that the total number of births in China will be less than in 1987. In 1987, the rate of 3rd or higher parity birth was below 5% in 6 provinces and municipalities, but 10 provinces and autonomous regions were over 20%. Fertility rates showed considerable disparity depending on the locational demographics (e.g. birth rates in urban areas were 14.3/1000 yet birth rates were 24.3/1000 in suburban townships).     

Beginnings: participatory action research and adults with developmental disabilities

This paper discusses the emergence of Participatory Action Research (PAR), and its use with individuals with cognitive disabilities. A brief history of PAR is given, with a focus on its uses for empowerment and self-determination for persons with disabilities. Using literature-based standards for participatory, action and emancipatory research approaches, a 3-year research project with goals of increasing community participation by adults with developmental disabilities is described and evaluated. The "Transition into Community Life" project used an adapted form of the "Farmer-back-to-Farmer" PAR model (Rhoades & Booth, 1982), and the article discusses the successes and challenges of the model in a context quite different from how it was originally designed. The author describes lessons learned concerning the use of PAR with people with developmental disabilities. The article concludes with a brief discussion of the feasibility of PAR with individuals with cognitive challenges.     

试论审计抽样的统计学原理——属性抽样

本文以审计实质重于统计方法的观点,研究统计抽样原理如何适从审计实务的要求,实现两个学科理论的输出和引进的科学对接。