MULTINATIONALS’ PRODUCTIVITY ADVANTAGE: SCALE OR TECHNOLOGY?

This study decomposes the productivity advantage of foreign multinationals into a technology and a scale effect and analyses the causal relationship between foreign ownership and these two components. This is done by analyzing the effects of an acquisition of a domestic establishment by a foreign multinational, using a combined propensity score matching and difference-in-differences estimation. The main results show that any positive impact of acquisition is predominantly due to changes in technical efficiency and not in scale and that the preacquisition productivity of the target plays a role in mediating the rate of technology transfer from the multinational. ( JEL F23, L22)     

A framework for the analysis of self-confirming policies

Theory and Decision - This paper provides a general framework for analyzing self-confirming policies. We study self-confirming equilibria in recurrent decision problems with incomplete information...     

Selected health behaviors that influence college freshman weight change

OBJECTIVE AND PARTICIPANTS: The authors investigated the effect of physical activity (PA), fruit and vegetable intake, and alcohol use on 6-month weight change in 193 college freshmen (78.8% white, 88.2% women, 94.5% on a meal plan). METHODS: The authors administered a Web-based survey in fall 2002 (baseline) and spring 2003 (follow-up). RESULTS: There was an overall average weight gain of 2.5 lbs (p < .05), although only 57% reported weight gain (M = 7.1 lbs). Fruit and vegetable intake decreased (p = .034), alcohol use increased (p > .05), and PA was unchanged. Weight gain for students with body mass indexes (BMI) > or =25 kg/m2 was nearly twice that of students with BMIs < 25 (p < .05). Students with low-frequency baseline PA were twice as likely to be overweight. Follow-up data showed that students reporting > or = 4 sessions per week (ie, high frequency) of low-intensity PA were twice as likely to have healthy BMIs as students engaging in low- and moderate-frequency PA. CONCLUSIONS: PA interventions should target freshmen with BMIs > or = 25.     

A Flexible Approach to Time-varying Coefficients in the Cox Regression Setting

Research on methods for studying time-to-event data (survival analysis) has been extensive in recent years. The basic model in use today represents the hazard function for an individual through a proportional hazards model (Cox, 1972). Typically, it is assumed that a covariate's effect on the hazard function is constant throughout the course of the study. In this paper we propose a method to allow for possible deviations from the standard Cox model, by allowing the effect of a covariate to vary over time. This method is based on a dynamic linear model. We present our method in terms of a Bayesian hierarchical model. We fit the model to the data using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Finally, we illustrate the approach with several examples. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

CAN TRADE REALLY HURT? AN EMPIRICAL FOLLOW‐UP ON SAMUELSON'S CONTROVERSIAL PAPER

This paper investigates Samuelson's [Samuelson, P. A. “Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 2004, 135–46] argument that technical progress of the trade partner may hurt the home country. We illustrate this prospect in a simple Ricardian model for situations with outward knowledge spillovers. Within this framework Samuelson's Act II effects may occur. Based on industry level panel data for 17 OECD countries for the period 1973–2000 we show econometrically that the outflow of domestic knowledge via exports or foreign direct investment (FDI) to the rest of the world may have a negative impact on industry output in the home country. This is particularly so when exporting to technologically less advanced countries and, more specifically, China. (JEL F10, F11, F14, O30)     

Operational research and the pluralist frame of reference

This paper is concerned with the practice of OR in situations of conflict. Two papers which consider the practice of OR in the public sector are criticised. Both papers do not fully recognise the implications of conflict and the guidance given for action suffers as a consequence. Conflict situations have been extensively studied by analysts of industrial relations and war. Relevant concepts from these studies are introduced which give an awareness of the problems of conflict and some sound guides for action.     

Auctions of companies

Auctions of companies are conducted in ways that contradict received auction theory. The major puzzles are: (1) sellers restrict the number of bidders; (2) sellers restrict the number of bidders; (3) bidders are screened by an initial round of non-binding bids; and (4) bidders offer - and sellers sometimes accept - preemptive bids. Puzzles (1), (2), and (4) are explained by assuming that some information concerning the company can, if released, reduce the value of the company. Puzzle (3) is explained as a way for sellers to select the highest-valued bidders; equilibrium is maintained by using the initial bids to set a reserve price for the final bidding round.     

Infants born preterm and infants born full-term generate more selective leg joint movement during the scaffolded mobile task

Infants born very preterm (PT), prior to 32 weeks gestation, are at increased risk of developing cerebral palsy. Children with spastic cerebral palsy have impaired selective leg joint movement, which contributes to lifelong walking limitations. We investigated whether infants born PT generated more selective hip–knee joint movement (e.g., hip flexes as knee extends) while participating in a scaffolded mobile task. Infants born PT and infants born full-term (FT) at 4 months corrected age participated in a scaffolded mobile task for 2–3 consecutive days. The scaffolded mobile task required infants to raise their legs vertically over a virtual threshold. Three threshold heights (low, middle, and high) were used to test whether the middle and high heights encourage infants to move their legs more selectively. Fifteen infants born FT learned the task and showed more selective hip–knee movement at each of the three threshold heights on the day that they learned, compared with their baseline spontaneous kicking. Thirteen infants born PT learned the task and showed more selective hip–knee movement on their learning day, but only when the middle and high thresholds were used. The results show that the scaffolded mobile task effectively encouraged infants to generate more selective hip–knee joint movement.     

Helping children cope with parental mental illness through use of children's literature

Children of mentally ill parents are often vulnerable, partly because they may not receive adequate nurturing and partly because they feel stigmatized by their parents' disabilities. The author recommends use in treatment of several children's books that show realistic, positive role models of children coping with parental mental illness.