Competitive bidding — The probability of winning

A company bidding by sealed tender needs to know the relationship between their bid price and their chances of winning the contract. Previously published models for computing the probability of winning are examined and found to be inaccurate. The problem is reformulated, and a new general predictive model for computing the probability of winning is developed. The method of computation is illustrated by a simple worked example.     

Clarifying question meaning in a household telephone survey

This study contrasts two interviewing techniques that reflectdifferent tacit assumptions about communication. In one, strictlystandardized interviewing, interviewers leave the interpretationof questions up to respondents. In the other, conversationalinterviewing, interviewers say whatever it takes to make surethat questions are interpreted uniformly and as intended. Respondentsfrom a national sample were interviewed twice. Each time theywere asked the same factual questions from ongoing governmentsurveys, five about housing and five about recent purchases.The first interview was strictly standardized; the second wasstandardized for half the respondents and conversational forthe others. Respondents in a second conversational interviewanswered differently than in the first interview more often,and for reasons that conformed more closely to official definitions,than respondents in a second standardized interview. This suggeststhat conversational interviewing improved comprehension, althoughit also lengthened interviews. We conclude that respondentsin a national sample may misinterpret certain questions frequentlyenough to compromise data quality and that such misunderstandingscannot easily be eliminated by pretesting and rewording questionsalone. More standardized comprehension may require less standardizedinterviewer behavior.     

Evaluation of curricula in higher education: challenges for evaluators

Evaluation of teaching at universities is traditionally realized in terms of student ratings. Curriculum evaluation is rarely done in a systematic manner. More often, the emphasis is placed on a particular aspect, which is only of little help in terms of modifying education. A very prominent example is that of medical education. Here, evaluations of curricula primarily focus on new curricula by contrasting them to traditional ones. The article at hand deals with a different evaluation approach, in which five phases have to be considered and contrasting results to other teaching formats are not the main focus. In this article, the authors concentrate on the first phase (baseline evaluation) of the systematic evaluation of a medical curriculum. They describe several challenges of such an evaluation approach and illustrate the strategies used to overcome them. In addition, associated relevant empirical findings from this evaluation study are presented.     

The Gender Identity/Gender Dysphoria Questionnaire for Adolescents and Adults

The present study reports on the construction of a dimensional measure of gender identity (gender dysphoria) for adolescents and adults. The 27-item gender identity/gender dysphoria questionnaire for adolescents and adults (GIDYQ-AA) was administered to 389 university students (heterosexual and nonheterosexual) and 73 clinic-referred patients with gender identity disorder. Principal axis factor analysis indicated that a one-factor solution, accounting for 61.3% of the total variance, best fits the data. Factor loadings were all ≥ .30 (median, .82; range, .34–.96). A mean total score (Cronbach's alpha, .97) was computed, which showed strong evidence for discriminant validity in that the gender identity patients had significantly more gender dysphoria than both the heterosexual and nonheterosexual university students. Using a cut-point of 3.00, we found the sensitivity was 90.4% for the gender identity patients and specificity was 99.7% for the controls. The utility of the GIDYQ-AA is discussed.     

Productivity of highly skilled immigrants: economists in the postwar period

Prior work finds declining immigrant quality in the postwar period that is linked to source-country and skill-composition changes associated with the 1965 Immigration Act. This paper uses a unique panel of foreign- and native-born American Economic Association members to show that the highly skilled experienced a similar shift away from European migrants toward those from Asia. However, the findings do not indicate that this change in source-country composition has been accompanied by a decline in quality; rather, the most recent cohorts of foreign-born economists appear to be more productive than their native counterparts.     

Rolling with the shakes: an insight into teenagers’ perceptions of recovery after the Canterbury earthquakes

Natural disasters are harmful worldwide events that inflict multiple psychosocial impacts on disaster-exposed individuals. A significant proportion of affected individuals are teenagers (13–18 years old) who, compared with adults, have been historically overlooked in disaster research. The literature is particularly sparse concerning teenagers’ recovery from natural disasters, specifically what recovery means to them and the contributing factors towards their positive recovery. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to gain deeper insight into this largely unexplored area by conducting five focus groups with teenagers (16–18 years) who experienced at least one of the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes since and including the initial September 2010 earthquake. This study directly asked teenagers about their recovery over the three years after the initial earthquakes, with data being analysed using thematic analysis. Two main themes were identified: (1) perceptions of recovery, with three sub-themes (i) knowledge and being less frightened, (ii) talking about the earthquakes and (iii) shift in perspectives; and (2) contributing factors to recovery, with three sub-themes (i) participation in the community response, (ii) returning to school and (iii) the rebuild of Christchurch. These factors provide insight into how we can better support the recovery process for disaster-exposed teenagers to reduce long-term distress.     

The Recalled Childhood Gender Questionnaire-Revised: a psychometric analysis in a sample of women with congenital adrenal hyperplasia

We administered the 18-item Recalled Childhood Gender Questionnaire-Revised (RCGQ-R), female version, to 147 adult women with congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) representing three different degrees of prenatal androgenization due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency and to non-CAH controls. A principal components analysis generated three components accounting for 46%, 9%, and 6% of the variance, respectively. Corresponding unit-weighted scales (high scores = feminine) were labeled Gender Role (13 items; Cronbach alpha = .91), Physical Activity (3 items; alpha = .64), and Cross-Gender Desire (2 items; alpha = .47). Discriminant validity was demonstrated in terms of highly significant comparisons across the four groups. We conclude that the first 2 RCGQ-R scales show good psychometric qualities, but that the third scale needs to be further evaluated in a sample that includes women with gender identity disorder.     

A common-features analysis of Amsterdam and London financial markets during the eighteenth century

We examine the financial linkage between the London and Amsterdam financial markets using stock prices recorded in each market over the period 1723-94 in conjunction with tests for common trends, cycles, and regime shifts. These tests reveal a surprising degree of integration between the markets as their prices move together in both the short and long run. Moreover, shocks to the assets translate quickly and accurately between markets. It also appears that Dutch investment did not destabilize London markets and stock prices in London were the primary determinant of prices in Amsterdam.