On estimating census undercount in small areas

"Net undercount rates in the U.S. decennial census have been steadily declining over the last several censuses. Differential undercounts among race groups and geographic areas, however, appear to persist. In the following, we examine and compare several methodologies for providing small area estimates of census coverage by constructing artificial populations. Measures of performance are also introduced to assess the various small area estimates. Synthetic estimation in combination with regression modelling provide the best results over the methods considered. Sampling error effects are also simulated. The results form the basis for determining coverage evaluation survey small area estimates of the 1900 decennial census."     

‘There it will be better … ’: Southern Sudanese in Khartoum imagining a new ‘home’ away from ‘home’

At the time of the research, Khartoum was a multi-ethnic and multinational metropolis of 8 million people. A considerable part of the population consists of Southern Sudanese migrants and displaced persons that came during the 20 years plus of civil war in South Sudan to the capital. These people were categorised after the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), as displaced people regardless as to whether they come to the capital as labour migrants, students or because of the war to the capital. The notion of displacement assumes that they are people who are ‘out of place’: thereby assuming a former situation of being in place, a place that can be called ‘home’. After the CPA from 2005, this frequently only imagined home became a real place for the IDP’s to which they are supposed to go back. Yet, many migrants and displaced people are reluctant to move to Southern Sudan. Their decision about going to the South or staying in Khartoum depends not only on the opportunities and perspectives in their respective ‘home’ areas but also on the perceptions of belonging and identity. The imaginations and aspirations about the future life in South Sudan, which I analyse in this article, reflect this ambivalent positioning.     

Competition for Resources: A Reexamination of Sibship Composition Models of Parental Investment

The predictions of resource dilution and sibship gender composition models of educational investment are tested using the Japanese Nationwide Survey on Families (N = 6,985). Japan is an important case because of its postindustrial economy, coupled with high levels of dependence on parental investment to attend a university and persisting gender inequality in educational attainment. In previous between‐family analyses of educational attainment in Japan, boys were found to drain resources from their sisters. The within‐family, multilevel models of parental educational investments in this analysis show that girls with college‐educated brothers fare better than their peers without brothers. An alternative model incorporating the educational investments received by brothers in the same family is proposed.     

Emotional closeness with perpetrators and amnesia for child sexual abuse

Over the past decade, a contentious debate regarding delayed memories of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) has existed. In order to address this debate, 240 female participants completed questions about CSA, the Dissociative Experience Scale (Bernstein & Putnam, 1986), Perceived Emotional Closeness with Perpetrator Scale (Schultz, Passmore, & Yoder, 2000), and the Gudjonsson Suggestibility Scale 2 (GSS 2) (Gudjonsson, 1987). Eighty-two (36%) reported CSA and 37% of these indicated memory disturbances for the CSA. Participants reporting memory disturbances also reported significantly higher numbers of perpetrators, chemical abuse in their families, and closer relationships with the perpetrator(s) than participants reporting no memory disturbances. Implications for clinicians working with clients reporting CSA are discussed.     

Einsatz von Simulationspatienten im Kommunikations- und Interaktionstraining für Medizinerinnen und Mediziner (Medi-KIT): Bedarfsanalyse — Training — Perspektiven

Communication skills are of central importance within daily medical life providing effective treatment. In the modern high-tech field of medicine, trustful conversations play a prominent role. In order to help students of the Heidelberg Medical Faculty to be ready for their highly responsible role as communication partner, training is carried out in the framework of HeiCuMed (short for Heidelberger Curriculum Medicinale) using specially trained simulation patients. The communication and interaction training program (referred to as Medi-KIT) enables to practice conducting conversations with challenging communication partners and grave conversational content in difficult situations. Feedback from the standardized patients, as well as from peers and tutors represents a central didactic element.In order to secure knowledge transfer into daily clinic life and as well to build a relation to cognitive knowledge transfer, all medical students are assigned, alongside Medi-KIT lessons, to a ward, and training units are coordinated in terms of content to correspond with symptom-oriented lectures and parallel POL-groups (problem-oriented learning groups). In addition, communication learning objectives are examined at the end of the semester in the form of a clinical practical exam (OSCE: Objective Structured Clinical Examination) and at patient’s bedside (Mini-CEX: Mini Clinical Examination). The goal in imparting communication skills within medical education is that the longitudinal communication curriculum be maintained and continued in subsequent medical specialization studies.     

Political Economy,Ecological Modernization,and Energy Use: A Panel Analysis of State‐Level Energy Use in the United States, 1960–1990

The present study will examine energy consumption from two competing perspectives within environmental social science: political economy and ecological modernization. These frameworks will be evaluated with a fixed‐effects panel analysis of state‐level energy use between the years 1960 and 1990, based on data for 50 states plus Washington, DC, from the Energy Information Administration’s State Energy Data System. The results from the panel analysis show that the increase in total energy use between 1960 and 1990 depended on both increasing economic growth and urbanization, even after controlling for population size, industrialization, and inflation‐adjusted energy prices. The results challenge the claims of ecological modernization theory and support a political economic approach to the study of changes in energy use. In the conclusion, the study’s findings will be framed within the context of the early twenty‐first‐century economic and ecological crises. In light of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this study can also further advance the renewable energy debate by reminding us of the social drivers of energy use.     

Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.