Hypotheses Testing as a Fuzzy Set Estimation Problem

For many scientific experiments computing a p-value is the standard method for reporting the outcome. It is a simple way of summarizing the information in the data. One theoretical justification for p-values is the Neyman-Pearson theory of hypotheses testing. However, the decision making focus of this theory does not correspond well with the desire, in most scientific experiments, for a simple and easily interpretable summary of the data. Fuzzy set theory with its notion of a membership function gives a non-probabilistic way to talk about uncertainty. Here, we argue that for some situations, where a p-value is computed, it may make more sense to formulate the question as one of estimating a membership function of the subset of special parameter points which are of particular interest for the experiment. Choosing the appropriate membership function can be more difficult than specifying the null and alternative hypotheses but the resulting payoff is greater. This is because a membership function can better represent the shades of desirability among the parameter points than the sharp division of the parameter space into the null and alternative hypotheses. This approach yields an estimate which is easy to interpret and more flexible and informative than the cruder p-value.     

Splice plots for generalized linear models

ABSTRACT

We develop splice plots as a diagnostic tool for parametric generalized linear models. Splice plots use the independence of the outcome and explanatory measures given the regression function. Plotting differences between the estimated parametric regression function and non-parametric estimates of the regression function computed in small neighborhoods of the fitted values from the parametric model can be used to assess model fit.     

An Integrated Methodology for Assessment and Selection of the Project Risk Response Actions

In a systematic process of project risk management, after risk assessment is implemented, the risk analysts encounter the phase of assessment and selection of the project risk response actions (RA). As indicated by many researchers, there are less systematic and well-developed solutions in the area of risk response assessment and selection. The present article introduces a methodology including a modeling approach with the objective of selecting a set of RA that minimizes the undesirable deviation from achieving the project scope. The developed objective function comprises the three key success criteria of a project, namely, time, quality, and cost. Our model integrates overall project management into the project risk response planning (P2RP). Furthermore, the proposed model stresses on an equivalent importance for both "risk" and "response." We believe that applying the proposed model helps the project risk analyst in most effective and efficient manner dealing with his or her complicated RA selection problems. The application of the proposed model was implemented in projects in the construction industry in which it showed tremendous time, cost, and quality improvements.     

The design of lower‐limb sports prostheses: fair inclusion in disability sport

Within lower‐limb disability running, the design of the prosthesis has shifted from being a tool for restoring function to one of enabling athletes to perform to near non‐disabled standards. This paper examines the background to this development. The authors argue that the impact of technology on the design of prostheses is likely to affect athletes’ abilities and unfairly advantage those who are able to access the most recent innovations. It is shown that historically in the case of lower‐limb sports prostheses, some variation in their performance is evident. The sports legislation does not allow for this difference. It is indicated that these observations are of concern to the sports stakeholders and therefore warrants further attention. It is suggested that the full understanding of the prostheses contribution may never be known. The authors propose a synthesis of quantitative performance data and a qualitatively obtained code of values to help police these concerns.     

A bayesian signal detection procedure for scale‐space random fields

The authors consider the problem of searching for activation in brain images obtained from functional magnetic resonance imaging and the corresponding functional signal detection problem. They develop a Bayesian procedure to detect signals existing within noisy images when the image is modeled as a scale space random field. Their procedure is based on the Radon‐Nikodym derivative, which is used as the Bayes factor for assessing the point null hypothesis of no signal. They apply their method to data from the Montreal Neurological Institute.     

Dimension reduction summaries for balanced contrasts

We discuss the covariate dimension reduction properties of conditional density ratios in the estimation of balanced contrasts of expectations. Conditional density ratios, as well as related sufficient summaries, can be used to replace the covariates with a smaller number of variables. For example, for comparisons among k   populations the covariates can be replaced with k-1$k-1$ conditional density ratios. The dimension reduction properties of conditional density ratios are directly connected with sufficiency, the dimension reduction concepts considered in regression theory, and propensity theory. The theory presented here extends the ideas in propensity theory to situations in which propensities do not exist and develops an approach to dimension reduction outside of the potential outcomes or counterfactual framework. Under general conditions, we show that a principal components transformation of the estimated conditional density ratios can be used to investigate whether a sufficient summary of dimension lower than k-1$k-1$ exists and to identify such a lower dimensional summary.     

The development of the Watershed Project Outcomes Scale: beneficiaries' and administrators' perspectives in an Iranian sample

The purpose of this research study was to invent a measure for watershed projects' outcomes from beneficiaries' and administrators' perspectives in an Iranian sample. A demographic questionnaire and the Watershed Project Outcomes Scale (WPOS) were used in this study. Findings indicate the WPOS consists of four factors: cultural development, economic development, social welfare and positive psychosocial transformation. Female and non inhabitant beneficiaries were significantly higher on the WPOS than males and inhabitants. The level of education and local language were effective from beneficiaries' viewpoints toward the watersheds. The governmental administrators had significantly higher positive attitudes on the WPOS than the watershed beneficiaries.     

Wall Street Scandals: The Myth of Individual Greed1

There is rarely an introductory text in sociology that does not begin with C. Wright Mills’s (1967) distinction between personal troubles and structural or public issues. To lack sociological imagination is to confuse between these two levels of analysis in trying to explain public issues in terms of personal troubles, or history in terms of the individual’s biography. “Troubles occur within the character of the individual and within the range of his immediate relations with others; Issues have to do with matters that transcend these local environments of the individual and the range of his inner life” ( Mills, 1967:8 ). Issues are generated in response to the dynamics of the social system and unfold within the larger structural and historical contexts where the character of the individual takes shape. Yet, the most popular explanation of the contemporary financial crisis with its disastrous social and economic consequences is personal greed. It is the greedy investment bankers, corrupt politicians, and unscrupulous lobbyists who are to take the brunt of the current economic meltdown in the United States. A few bad apples on Wall Street have created havoc on Main Street. Here, one may argue that greed that—if not kept in check—which seems to afflict almost everyone, transcending social class and status boundaries, may be a public issue—a structural problem—rather than a problem within the character of the individual. Not to be greedy within the contemporary social and economic system may be considered pathological, an instance of personal trouble.