Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

Cross-state variation in Medicaid programs and female labor supply

Using a pooled cross-section data set from the 1980 through 1993 Current Population Survey March Supplements, we test if different Medicaid benefit levels across states impact the labor supply behavior of female heads of households. The ordinary least square (OLS) results support the prediction that Medicaid expenditures reduce labor supply. Controlling for state fixed or random effects alters the effect of both AFDC and Medicaid on the decision to participate as well as the number of hours worked. We also find that while the effects of program generosity are sensitive to the inclusion of state effects those of variation in eligibility thresholds are not.     

Teaching and research in quantitative methods in university management schools

Much has been written and said about the education and development of operational researchers and management scientists from a specialist departmental viewpoint. Considerably less attention has been devoted to the role of management schools in this process and, more importantly, in their provision of a general education in quantitative methods for all their postgraduate taught course students. This paper aims to make a contribution towards rectifying this relative neglect. Moreover, it specifically contrasts the two sets of activities and argues that they are largely fulfilling different purposes and satisfying in the main different job markets. The paper also addresses some of the problems of management science researchers within a management school milieu.     

Modelling and measurement in retailing practice

The retailing sector has traditionally attracted the attention of economists and marketing specialists but only comparatively recently, at least in the UK, have management scientists become involved. Yet there is much of a measurement and modelling character in retailing to which the management scientist can contribute most usefully. This paper examines two areas of major practical importance to retailers: labour productivity, store location and size. Basic measurement and the establishment of standards can lead to considerable performance improvements in the first area. The second problem area is strategic rather than operational in essence and lends itself to either mathematical modelling or empirical techniques or to a combination of the two approaches.     

Profiles of behavioral problems in children who witness domestic violence

Unlike previous investigations of shelter-based samples, our study examined whether profiles of adjustment problems occurred in a community-program-based sample of 175 school-aged children exposed to domestic violence. Cluster analysis revealed three stable profiles/clusters. The largest cluster (69%) consisted of children below clinical thresholds for any internalizing or externalizing problem. Children in the next largest cluster (18%) were characterized as having externalizing problems with or without internalizing problems. The smallest cluster (13%) consisted of children with internalizing problems only. Comparison across demographic and violence characteristics revealed that the profiles differed by child gender, mother's education, child's lifetime exposure to violence, and aspects of the event precipitating contact with the community program. Clinical and future research implications of study findings are discussed.     

The chief executive and his information system

The authors examine the attitudes of British chief executives towards their information systems using recent survey evidence. They discuss the chief executive's individual computation needs and the extent to which he satisfies these personally, his attitudes towards computer-based information and corporate models, and his general informational and analytical requirements. Of particular interest, is the relative contribution as judged by chief executives of intuitive judgement, computer-based analysis and manual analysis respectively to strategic decision-taking; comparative valuations of formal and informal information systems are also ascertained. On the evidence provided by the chief executives, future prospects for computer systems and modelling techniques at strategic level are generally sound although it is difficult to see them achieving the dominance at top managerial level once envisaged by the more optimistic and imaginative management scientists and cyberneticians.     

Lessons learned implementing community‐based comprehensive case management for families surviving homicide

Family members of homicide victims often experience a wide range of adverse reactions to the homicide. This study reports on the Traumatic Loss Response Team, a project conducted by a community‐based, mental‐health agency to provide comprehensive case‐management services to meet homicide survivors' complex needs. To conduct the study, we abstracted service/process data from open client cases in 2013 (most recent year with available data) and conducted interviews with the project's implementing agencies. Interviews revealed both initial challenges and factors facilitating successful implementation. Main challenges to overcome included gaining credibility and trust from police and issues around overlap of services provided to families by numerous agencies that may become involved in a homicide. Partners view the project providing a range of important services to families, including intermediary/buffer between families and police. Concerning service data, of the 131 cases open in 2013, most were referred directly by police and involved community violence, an adult victim and a firearm. Most of the 164 clients receiving services were female, adult, African‐American and parents of the deceased. Grief support was the most common of numerous services provided. We hope that this study will catalyse sharing of similar data and experiences among organizations providing services to homicide survivors.     

Children with disabilities and disaster preparedness: a case study of Christchurch

An estimated seven million children with disabilities worldwide are affected by disasters annually. This significant figure emphasises the particular vulnerability of these children in facing natural hazards. However, their needs as well as their capacity and role in disaster risk reduction have largely been overlooked by researchers and policymakers. This paper draws on a case study in Christchurch to identify insights, realities, possibilities and obstacles in relation to the involvement in disaster preparedness of children with diverse disabilities. It reports on findings from focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with children who have disabilities, their teachers and caregivers to explore children's preparedness and potential responses to a disaster. The findings indicate a considerable variation in how children with disabilities access available resources and perceive, face and cope with natural hazards. This paper shows their potential contribution to disaster preparedness and provides further suggestions for policy and practice.     

Planning models in the UK: A survey

This paper presents the results of a survey on the use of computer-based models in the broad areas of planning and strategy formulation in UK companies. This survey updates and complements other recent surveys, which exclusively considered the use of corporate models, and shows a continued increase in the numbers of these models in use. In particular, models in the following broad categories were examined: forecasting, marketing, personnel, production and models of ‘one-off’ situations, as well as corporate and financial models. For such models the paper includes details of: frequencies of occurrence and relationship to company size; professional roles of the model-builders and users respectively; frequencies of use. In these and more subjective ways, the survey attempts to assess the place and value of computers in planning.