Can recessions be predicted?

Can recessions, or serious turning points in general, be predicted? Or do forecasters tend to assume that the future will continue as an extension of the near past. Theoretical evidence and practical observations tend to support the hypothesis that forecasters are unduly influenced by current events and feel that booms or contractions in the economy will continue for much longer than they actually do. In the opinion of the authors this is a serious shortcoming of a good majority of those involved with forecasting who do not seem to be learning from experience. The basic question which the authors consider in this article is whether it is possible to avoid either of the two extremes. If this is possible, they argue that this will allow economic signs to be correctly interpreted, which ‘quite often can give clear indications of forthcoming changes in the level of economic activity’.     

Chronology of the last six recessions

How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans of businesses. The purpose of this paper is to examine forecasts of economic recessions that have been made over the last 20 years and evaluate the extent to which forecasters have been successful in their predictions. The approach used was to look closely at published forecasts in major business journals or specialized forecasting newsletters. The conclusion of the paper is that forecasters have been somewhat unsuccessful in their efforts to correctly predict the timing and depth of recessions. The implications of such a conclusion are that planners should not pursue the illusion that recessions can be accurately predicted and, instead, they should accept reality and shift the emphasis from attempting to forecast recessions to effectively monitoring the present state of the economy.     

Integrating forecasting and planning

Specialization inhibits or prohibits interdisciplinary communication among diverse areas. It contributes to segmentation, which becomes a serious problem when several of those areas should depend upon knowledge which exists in other fields. Forecasting and Planning are two such areas, and it is the purpose of this article to show how planning can benefit by the proper utilization of existing knowledge in the field of forecasting.     

Syntactic foundations for unawareness of theorems

We provide a syntactic model of unawareness. By introducing multiple knowledge modalities, one for each sub-language, we specifically model agents whose only mistake in reasoning (other than their unawareness) is to underestimate the knowledge of more aware agents. We show that the model is a complete and sound axiomatization of the set-theoretic model of Galanis (University of Southampton Discussion paper 709, 2007) and compare it with other unawareness models in the literature.     

A momentary lapse of reason? Gezi in social-historical perspective

Through the social-historical contextualization of Gezi protests and drawing on the works of Badiou and Turner this article conceptualises the protests as a ‘happening’ or ‘event’ characterized by rupture and liminality. Without underestimating their importance as a meaning creation process, it is argued that the visions inspiring Gezi have been/are in sharp contrast to the version of democracy shaped by the fears and aspirations of at least a plurality of the country's citizenry and enacted by the Justice and Development Party (AKP). At the same time, these visions remain largely incomprehensible to the Kemalist and nationalist opposition. The paper therefore suggests that Gezi should be located outside the linear time and conventional topography of Turkish politics and interpreted as a brief, powerful moment of rupture in a political system where both the incumbent political forces and the opposition and their constituencies are resisting change and consider extra-institutional ‘antipolitics’ as a threat.     

An Ontological Turn for Childhood Studies?

The so‐called ‘ontological turn’ in the social sciences has brought with it yet another layer of theoretical concerns, except that this time the interest is in ontology rather than epistemology. New materialist thinking which has emerged in recent years promises to rethink the task of social theory in ways that circumvent modernist dualisms. In this paper, I explore what this might entail for childhood studies. What might such an ontological shift which emphasises among others relationality, connectedness and materiality mean for the further development of childhood studies? How would a decentring of children and the field's overpowering concerns for studying children's perspectives/voices/standpoints help rethink childhood studies and its remit? How, in short, would a shift from the child as an independent unit of analysis and of childhood as a categorical identity to a new ontology of emerging phenomena which implicate children, adults and non‐human forces affect the field's direction in the future?     

If we cannot forecast how can we plan?

The purpose of this article is to deal directly and explicitly with the issues and problems currently facing forecasting, planning and strategy and to discuss how the challenges of the 1980s can be realistically and effectively met. The article deals with the various environmental changes that have taken place and their implications for planners; presents empirical evidence, originating from the literature and the area of psychology concerned with human judgment processes; and outlines several new ideas which contribute towards integrating forecasting, planning and strategy and dealing with the turbulent enviroment of the future.     

An exploratory study of the relationships between adolescents with impaired mobility and their parents in Greek families

This study questions commonly held Greek social policy assumptions that families are the best and only providers of support to children and adolescents with impaired mobility. This is because the experiences of family life by Greek adolescents with such impairments can be characterized by a cycle of over-protection, dependency and social isolation. We also identify theories of disability that might help to explain the life experiences of the adolescents in our study. Because there is limited research that has examined such ideas in the Greek context we propose an initial and modest hypothesis informed by these theories to explain this cycle of impaired functional, psychological and social development experienced by these adolescents in Greek society.     

How consistent are class size effects?

Thus far researchers have focused on computing average differences in student achievement between smaller and larger classes. In this study, the author focus on the distribution of the small class effects at the school level and compute the inconsistency of the small class effects across schools. The author use data from Project STAR to estimate small class effects for each school on mathematics and reading scores from kindergarten through third grade. Then, all school estimates were combined to calculate an overall weighted average. The results revealed that a large proportion of the school-specific small class effects are positive, while a smaller proportion of the estimates are negative. Although students benefit considerably from being in small classes in many schools, in other schools being in small classes is either not beneficial or is a disadvantage. Small class effects were inconsistent and varied significantly across schools in all grades indicating a small class by school interaction.