‚The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly‘

According to the most influential contribution of recent years to the comparative study of advanced welfare states, Esping-Andersen’s ’Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism‘, the welfare state basically comes in three variants: as a social-democratic, a conservative, or as a liberal regime. Yet, at a closer look, in particular the ’conservative‘ regime-type represents a highly problematic category. The article claims that the major problems of Esping-Andersen’s typology and theory originate from his sole focus on the class conflict and his neglect of the religious cleavage. Major theoretical contradictions and empirical puzzles of his approach can be solved if we take not only the impact of the catholic social doctrine on the development of the welfare state into account, but consider also the influence of social protestantism, especially that of protestant dissent and of protestant non-conformism. The paper substantiates this claim with data for the early formative period of the welfare state (1890–1920) as well as for the high-time of the welfare state from the 1960s to the 1990s.     

Erhöht Globalisierung die Ungleichheit der Einkommen?

The article tests the thesis that globalization increases the earnings inequality of households. It extends the time series data set of Alderson and Nielsen (2002) who supported the globalization thesis. Alternative models provide no evidence that foreign trade, foreign investment, and migration increase inequality. The article gives reasons for these results and shows that OECD countries pass through an endogenous sectoral and demographic crisis in the transition to post-industrial service societies. Therefore, the paper adapts Kuznets’ theorem of sector dualism to the subsectors of the service economy. The polarization of value addition within the service sector appears as the crucial determinant of increased earnings inequality of households.     

Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.     

Die Auswirkungen von Neid auf individuelle Leistungen: Ergebnisse einer Panelanalyse

Relative income differences are likely to lead to envy within a reference group. Envy in turn influences social behavior and individual performance. While positional concerns are apparent in daily life, empirical evidence is rare in the economic literature. This paper investigates the impact of the relative income position on individuals’ performance or productivity. As ?performance“ is difficult to measure we turn to soccer players whose performance has been well documented. The broad sample covers eight seasons of the German premier soccer league (Bundesliga) between 1995 and 2004, and includes 1040 players, a salary proxy and several performance variables. The results show that player performance is strongly affected by relative income position. A disadvantage in the relative income position reduces productivity. The larger the income differences within a team, the stronger are the effects of positional concern. Team composition also significantly affects behaviour.     

The Precautionary Principle Versus Risk Analysis

Precautionary behavior serves a valuable protective purpose as a first response to the new. It causes a quick retreat to the safety of the familiar; it provides time for a realistic "friend or foe" assessment of a new event. This rational assessment is often delayed by the sluggishness of government bureaucratic processes, or stopped by an implied challenge to a status quo. At the public level, reassurance may be slow to overcome an early uncertainty. However, a precautionary response does not provide an operational governing principle, although it makes publicly plausible an indefinite concealment of de facto political actions, or nonaction. The alternative of rational decision making at the policy level should flow from a comparative benefit/cost/risk analysis. Such early risk analyses have pragmatic uncertainties based on the limited available knowledge base and, accordingly, require judgmental application.     

Hypothetical Fears and Quantitative Risk Analysis

Hypothetical fears are concepts, not quantities. Their conceptual nature makes impractical conventional quantitative risk analyses (QRA) based on benefit/cost/risk, so they become an unmeasured influence in national decision making. The decision process involves two steps, the Analytic Stage (QRA based) and the Priority Stage (resource allocation competition). This article suggests that a quantitative estimate of the social cost of fear reduction to acceptable levels be used as a surrogate QRA input to the Priority Stage.