Maximum likelihood estimation of variance components in a completely random bib design

ABSTRACT

The purposes of this paper are to abstract from a number of articles variance component estimation procedures which can be used for completely random balanced incomplete block designs, to develop an iterated least squares (ITLS) computing algorithm for calculating maximum likelihood estimates, and to compare these procedures by use of simulated experiments. Based on the simulated experiments, the estimated mean square errors of the ITLS estimates are generally less than*those for previously proposed analysis of variance and symmetric sums estimators.     

An age–period–cohort analysis of cancer incidence among the oldest old,Utah 1973–2002

We used age–period–cohort (APC) analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period, and cohort on cancer incidence rates in an attempt to understand the population dynamics underlying their patterns among those aged 85+. Data from the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), the US Census, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) programme were used to generate age-specific estimates of cancer incidence at ages 65–99 from 1973 to 2002 for Utah. Our results showed increasing cancer incidence rates up to the 85–89 age group followed by declines at ages 90–99 when not confounded by the separate influences of period and cohort effects. We found significant period and cohort effects, suggesting the role of environmental mechanisms in cancer incidence trends between the ages of 85 and 100.     

Cooperation or conniving: How public sector rules shape the decision

To what extent will decision makers in the economy use their time, energy, and imagination to cooperate in production and productive exchange? To what extent will they instead devote their efforts toward simply redividing the economic pie to arrange bigger slices for themselves at the expense of others, and ultimately at the expense of the size of the pie? This paper explains the case to be made that added collectivization since 1960, embodied in the growth industries of regulation and tax collection, have significantly shifted entrepreneurial efforts nationally toward pie redividing and away from pie enlarging activities. Empirical evidence is provided to support this assertion.     

Experience with a multi-year fleet planning model

The fleet planning problem requires determination of the changing airline fleet mix based on existing traffic levels and projected growth, on the existing fleet, various aircraft types available in the future, and other operational and financial considerations. Several applicable mathematical formulations have been reported. One of these has been programmed for the computer and used by the authors for several years. This paper discusses the application of that model to real airline planning situations. Such practical experience has effected changes in the program and the manner it is used in fleet planning studies.     

Controlling earth's resources: Markets or socialism?

The important message contained in Garrett Hardin's seminalScience article, "The Tragedy of the Commons," is that in making resource-use decisions individuals see their own narrow interests best and, if not constrained by institutions such as governmental rule or market incentives, will tend to follow those narrow interests. Individuals do not automatically seek to use resources in the long-run best interests of society. This fact of life leads to abuse of resources to which access is not controlled.In this paper, the same insight is applied to the two types of control mechanism cited by Hardin: socialist management and private ownership. Much has been written in the economics literature, especially since "Tragedy" was published, which bears on any comparative analysis of the two systems. Some of these insights are reported here.     

INTERNATIONAL DEAL EXPERIENCE AND CROSS‐BORDER ACQUISITIONS

I show that corporate directors' human capital facilitates international investments. Directors' experience with cross‐border transactions positively influences firms' decisions to conduct their first cross‐border acquisitions. Cross‐border acquirers are more likely to buy firms headquartered in countries with which the directors have prior deal experience. This effect is strongest for target firms headquartered in culturally and institutionally dissimilar countries. Announced cross‐border acquisitions are received more favorably by financial markets and are more likely to be completed successfully when the announcing firm has a director with cross‐border acquisition experience. These effects are not driven by investment bank involvement in the deal process or by other forms of directors' human capital, and they are robust to endogeneity of director hires. (JEL F23, F21, J24, L23)     

Economic consequences of marital dissolution for blacks

Paying particular attention to the economic impact of post-divorce on black survey respondents of both sexes, "this study analyzes Weitzman's suggestion that men and women lose economic well-being in the first year after divorce. Family incomes of divorced women and men are compared with [those of] their married counterparts for five SES [socioeconomic status] categories. Using t-tests, it was found that, for most categories, for both genders, incomes of divorced persons were lower than incomes of married persons. Family incomes were regressed against a set of four control variables and a marital status variable. The marital status variable was statistically significant for four of the five SES categories for females. This was not true for males. Policy implications are considered." The geographical focus is on the United States.     

What Counts? How to use Different Sources of NGO Data

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - The quantitative data sources for NGO scholars are increasing, introducing new possibilities for our understanding of the...     

Nearest Neighbor Adjusted Best Linear Unbiased Prediction

Statistical inference for linear models has classically focused on either estimation or hypothesis testing of linear combinations of fixed effects or of variance components for random effects. A third form of inference—prediction of linear combinations of fixed and random effects—has important advantages over conventional estimators in many applications. None of these approaches will result in accurate inference if the data contain strong, unaccounted for local gradients, such as spatial trends in field-plot data. Nearest neighbor methods to adjust for such trends have been widely discussed in recent literature. So far, however, these methods have been developed exclusively for classical estimation and hypothesis testing. In this article a method of obtaining nearest neighbor adjusted (NNA) predictors, along the lines of “best linear unbiased prediction,” or BLUP, is developed. A simulation study comparing “NNABLUP” to conventional NNA methods and to non-NNA alternatives suggests considerable potential for improved efficiency.