The Design of a Knowledge-Based Decision Support System to Support the Information Analyst in Determining Requirements

Decision support system (DSS) researchers and designers continue to look for unstructured organizational tasks where there is a critical need for intelligent computer-based support. One such decision task is information requirements determination. Requirements determination is recognized as the most crucial phase of the systems development life cycle. Unfortunately, most methodologies and CASE tools focus only on how to specify the requirements once they are determined. There is very little computer support for the process of determining requirements. This paper discusses the conceptual design and development of a knowledge-based DSS to support information analysts in the critical decision task of determining requirements for the design of effective information systems. The expert modeling support system has the expertise to assist the analyst in studying the organization as a whole and in modeling the system under study in the context of the overall organization's goals and needs. The focus of the paper is on the problems associated with building the knowledge base component of the intelligent decision support system. A prototype implementation of the system is described.     

Posterior consistency of logistic Gaussian process priors in density estimation

We establish weak and strong posterior consistency of Gaussian process priors studied by Lenk [1988. The logistic normal distribution for Bayesian, nonparametric, predictive densities. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 83 (402), 509–516] for density estimation. Weak consistency is related to the support of a Gaussian process in the sup-norm topology which is explicitly identified for many covariance kernels. In fact we show that this support is the space of all continuous functions when the usual covariance kernels are chosen and an appropriate prior is used on the smoothing parameters of the covariance kernel. We then show that a large class of Gaussian process priors achieve weak as well as strong posterior consistency (under some regularity conditions) at true densities that are either continuous or piecewise continuous.     

Complexity and Adaptivity in Supply Networks: Building Supply Network Theory Using a Complex Adaptive Systems Perspective*

Supply networks are composed of large numbers of firms from multiple interrelated industries. Such networks are subject to shifting strategies and objectives within a dynamic environment. In recent years, when faced with a dynamic environment, several disciplines have adopted the Complex Adaptive System (CAS) perspective to gain insights into important issues within their domains of study. Research investigations in the field of supply networks have also begun examining the merits of complexity theory and the CAS perspective. In this article, we bring the applicability of complexity theory and CAS into sharper focus, highlighting its potential for integrating existing supply chain management (SCM) research into a structured body of knowledge while also providing a framework for generating, validating, and refining new theories relevant to real‐world supply networks. We suggest several potential research questions to emphasize how a CAS perspective can help in enriching the SCM discipline. We propose that the SCM research community adopt such a dynamic and systems‐level orientation that brings to the fore the adaptivity of firms and the complexity of their interrelations that are often inherent in supply networks.     

New Institutionalism and Sexuality at Work in Local Government

Recent statutory and policy changes have raised the profile of lesbian, gay and bisexual equalities initiatives in the local government arena. These initiatives are increasingly developed and delivered via inter‐agency partnerships. This article applies concepts from the sociological branch of new institutionalism to the field of sexualities equalities partnership work in local government, drawing on findings from a large empirical project. Notions of norms, ritual, templates and isomorphism all have purchase in this sensitive, value‐laden field, providing insight into the organizational dynamics associated with inter‐agency and partnership working. The article introduces the notion of institutional hybridization as a means of understanding the collaborative, and sometimes conflicting, processes associated with governance in the field of sexualities equalities work.     

Sensing Abnormal Resource Flow Using Adaptive Limit Process Charts in a Complex Supply Network*

Supply networks are becoming increasingly complex with multiple overlapping relationships between firms that may span across industries. Consequently, inventory management is becoming more difficult as managers have to cope with variability in the supply flows that originate from different parts of the network. Managers that quickly sense abnormal flows may intervene and adapt their inventory policies in response to system changes. In this article, we present a framework for sensing abnormal flows originating within the upstream supply network of a focal organization. Our framework combines time series modeling with process charts to identify abnormal flow patterns in the incoming supply streams. It is a flexible framework that uses off‐the‐shelf technology to provide managers with a process that can be employed for monitoring multiple individual or aggregated data streams originating within any complex system such as complex adaptive supply networks. We illustrate our framework on four years of longitudinal supply data from the second largest food bank in the United States. We identify multiple instances of abnormal supply flows and validate our results through rigorous inventory analysis as well as field‐based expert interviews. We discuss the implications of our findings for inventory management in complex supply networks, both from academic and practitioner points of view.     

Public duty and private prejudice: sexualities equalities and local government

Rather than critiquing social institutions and practices that have historically excluded lesbians and gay men, as did earlier social movements in the 1960s and 1970s, since the 1990s the politics of sexuality has increasingly been about demanding equal rights of citizenship. These citizenship demands have, at least to a degree, been answered via a raft of recent legislation in the UK including the Adoption and Children Act 2002, Employment Equality (Sexual Orientation) Regulations 2003, Gender Recognition Act 2004 and the Civil Partnership Act 2004, and by associated changes in policy making and practice that emphasize ‘Equality and Diversity’. In this article we consider how the implementation of sexualities equalities policies is related to processes of privatization and individualization. This is illustrated by using sexualities equalities work in local government as a case study to indicate how processes of change and resistance are aided by these processes. The article draws on findings from a study of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) equalities initiatives in local government in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, which examined the views of those who now have a public duty to implement recent legislative and policy shifts and are obliged to develop equalities initiatives concerning ‘sexual orientation' and ‘gender reassignment’.     

Fear of Crime and Collective Action: An Analysis of Coping Strategies

Recent research addressing fear of crime largely concerns the causes of that fear; this article expands our understanding of fear of crime by examining whether people cope with their fear individually or collectively. Our guiding questions were two: Do coping strategies differ by those individual-level characteristics established in the fear-of-crime literature? And do strategies differ based upon conceptually distinct types of fear? This research, based on a 1995 telephone survey of a random sample of New Orleans residents, suggests that the answer to both questions is yes. Commodified, individual-level precautionary techniques are explained primarily by characteristics that reflect differential abilities to pay for such precautions. Conversely, collective-level coping strategies are predicted primarily by degree of affective fear based on emotional reactions, regardless of actual levels of victimization.     

Sexual and Gender Diversities: Implications for LGBTQ Studies

ABSTRACT

This think piece provides a critical analysis of the terms lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) from an international perspective that draws on citizenship studies, providing some indications of the implications for LGBTQ studies. It outlines difficulties with the LGBTQ acronym in the Global North and South. Internationally, scholarship to support the human rights of non-heterosexuals and gender-diverse people is badly needed, but the think piece concludes that it is crucial to consider the social context of different cases, and to address the materialist, cultural, neo-colonial, and other forces that affect the formation of non-heterosexual and gender-diverse identities.     

Impeding the Juggernaut of Innovation Diffusion: A Production‐Constrained Model

Models of innovation diffusion typically depict an inexorable momentum once the process begins to roll. Limited production capacity, however, can place a cap on this process, leading to waiting lines of potential customers, thus diminishing overall service quality and the speed of diffusion. Identifying the minimum production capacity needed for unimpeded and unimpaired diffusion can ensure that there are no customers waiting to adopt the product. We propose a production‐capacity‐constrained diffusion model that considers an exogenous industry production capacity and accounts for word‐of‐mouth effects from adopters as well as waiting customers. We derive analytical expressions for minimum capacity needed under multiple production scenarios. We present a dual‐objective non‐linear least squares procedure with large‐scale grid search for estimating the parameters. We apply our model to several new product innovation data sets, ranging from vacuum cleaners to sports utility vehicles in the United States to iPhones globally. Our estimates show that product shortages exist, ranging from mild to severe, in all of these product markets. We are able to corroborate some of our findings with independent external sources of evidence. We find that information on industry capacity can be recovered with as few as 5 years of sales data. Our model has practical implications for policy makers and can help equity analysts triangulate industry capacity better, particularly when such information is closely held.     

A family of efficient estimators of the finite population mean in simple random sampling

In this paper an estimator of the finite population mean using auxiliary information in sample surveys has been proposed. The bias and mean squared error are obtained under large sample approximation. It has been shown that the proposed estimator performs better than some recently published estimators.