REGIONAL HOUSE PRICE DYNAMICS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE FOMC

This paper examines the impact of house price gaps in Federal Reserve districts on the voting behavior in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 1978 to 2010. Applying a random effects ordered probit model, we find that a higher regional house price gap significantly increases (decreases) the probability that this district's representative in the FOMC casts interest rate votes in favor of tighter (easier) monetary policy. In addition, our results suggest that Bank presidents react more sensitively to regional house price developments than Board members do. (JEL E31, E58, R31)     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.     

America's Most Important Problem--A Trend Analysis, 1946-1976

Using an extremely rich data series, this paper traces trendsin America's most important problem from 1946 to 1976. Bothlong-term and short-term changes in public concern are charted.Additionally, the problem profiles of major sociodemographicgroups are analyzed. Changes in the problem concerns of thesegroups are also followed across time.     

The Hidden 25 Percent: An Analysis of Nonresponse on the 1980 General Social Survey

Methods for estimating nonresponse bias are reviewed and severalmethods are tried on the 1980 GSS. The results indicate thatvarious estimating procedures are inappropriate and that eventhe more promising techniques can provide faulty estimates ofnonresponse bias. By its nature, nonresponse bias is very difficultto assess accurately and no simple, certain method exists.     

Recalling Attitudes: An Analysis of Retrospective Questions on the 1982 GSS

Research using the General Social Surveys suggests that retrospectivereporting of attitudes may frequently produce inaccurate distributions.In addition, the evidence also indicates that correlations betweenrecalled attitudes and other items may be distorted.     

Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote

The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of hisvote share in a reelection bid, especially when popularity isassessed in June of that year. This June popularity-vote modelpredicts about as well as the Gallup final preelection poll,and a 50 percent approval rating will ensure reelection.     

Inference for Epidemics with Three Levels of Mixing: Methodology and Application to a Measles Outbreak

Abstract. A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings according to potentially different rates. For this model, we consider how different kinds of data can be used to estimate the infection rate parameters with a view to understanding what can and cannot be inferred. Among other things we find that temporal data can be of considerable inferential benefit compared with final size data, that the degree of heterogeneity in the data can have a considerable effect on inference for non‐household transmission, and that inferences can be materially different from those obtained from a model with only two levels of mixing. We illustrate our findings by analysing a highly detailed dataset concerning a measles outbreak in Hagelloch, Germany.     

Corporate Social and Financial Performance: The Role of Size,Industry, Risk,R&D and Advertising Expenses as Control Variables

This article investigates the role of commonly specified control variables in moderating the relationship between corporate social performance (CSP) and corporate financial performance (CFP). In addition, there are separate measures for positive (strengths) social actions, and for negative (concerns) social actions. The results support the positive relationship between CSP and CFP. The best model, as determined using factorial analysis of variance, is one which has the following control variables: size, industry, risk, and research and development expenditures. In examining the CSP/CFP relationship, researchers must control for these variables, in order to properly specify the model.