REGIONAL HOUSE PRICE DYNAMICS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR IN THE FOMC

This paper examines the impact of house price gaps in Federal Reserve districts on the voting behavior in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from 1978 to 2010. Applying a random effects ordered probit model, we find that a higher regional house price gap significantly increases (decreases) the probability that this district's representative in the FOMC casts interest rate votes in favor of tighter (easier) monetary policy. In addition, our results suggest that Bank presidents react more sensitively to regional house price developments than Board members do. (JEL E31, E58, R31)     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.     

The Impact of Character-training Courses Upon Young People: an Empirical Investigation

Summary This article reports an attempt to assess the impact of character-trainingcourses upon young people. Seventy-seven young people from aLancashire-based company were interviewed both before, and aftertheir participation on the courses. From previous studies andliterature produced by the courses, five possible effects werehypothesized: (1) That the courses increase the social competenceof trainees. (2) That following the courses young people putmore into and get more out of life. (3) Trainees subsequentlydevelop new leisure interests. (4) The courses develop leadershipqualities. (5) Following courses young people are more likelyto participate in community service. The interview scheduleswere designed to test these hypotheses. Comparisons betweenreplies received from pre- and post-trainees confirmed onlyone of the hypotheses: following their training the young peopledid develop leisure interests related to the content of thecourses. Otherwise the data collected before and after the coursesdid not follow the predicted patterns. Further analysis of thedata suggested that the courses have an additional and unintendedeffect: namely that they make young people less settled at work     

Parton, Howe and Postmodernity: A Critical Comment on Mistaken Identity

Correspondence to Carole Smith, School of Social Work,, Department of Social Policy and Social Work, Dover Street Building, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL Summary In their contributions to the debate about social work, modernityand postmodernity Parton(1994) and Howe (1994) argue that therecent changes in social work practice can best be understoodas features of, or responses to, the postmodern social orderin which it is located. This has led, they argue, to an increasingfragmentation of the profession and an undermining of its formalknowledge base. We will argue here that, not only does suchan argument oversimplify the nuances of the ‘postmodernity’question, but it represents a misreading of the pressures affectingpractice at this time, which are more properly attributableto the operation of the discourses and ideologies of a particularphase of late capitalism and high modernity.     

Beyond Retroduction? -- Hermeneutics, Reflexivity and Social Work Practice

Correspondence to Susan White, University of Manchester, Department of Social Policy and Social Work, Williamson Building, Oxford Road, Manchester Summary Over the last three decades qualitative research methodologieshave been in the ascent within social science. Yet social workevaluation studies have tended to be quantitative in nature,conventially relying upon the generation of criteria againstwhich interventions are retrospectively judged. The generationof such criteria inevitably depends upon pre-suppositions, whichin themselves go unresearched. As a consequence the .sense makingactivities on which social work interventions depend are renderedimmune from critical analysis. This reflects a broader tendencyfor social work to cling to naive realist epistemologies, whichare arguably obsolete within the interpretive paradigm in whichits activity is properly located. By examining the debates withininterpretive social science, this paper argues for an approachto social work assessment which avoids the pitfalls of naiveobjectivism and the nihilism of anarchic relativism, whilstretaining creativity, imagination and hope.     

America's Most Important Problem--A Trend Analysis, 1946-1976

Using an extremely rich data series, this paper traces trendsin America's most important problem from 1946 to 1976. Bothlong-term and short-term changes in public concern are charted.Additionally, the problem profiles of major sociodemographicgroups are analyzed. Changes in the problem concerns of thesegroups are also followed across time.     

Forecasting lead times with economic data

Procurement lead time estimates are critical factors in production planning; however, they are generally based on a buyer's experience. The Westinghouse Corporation developed a linear model which successfully predicted procurement lead times for hot and cold rolled steel. This paper discusses nine models which use utilization and inventory data to predict lead time planning factors for aluminum, magnesium, steel and titanium products. The Lockheed-Georgia Company, which produces aerospace products, provided data for this research. The functional form of the models is significant and suggests that a nonlinear transformation of utilization based upon simple queueing models is a significant predictor of lead time duration.     

The Hidden 25 Percent: An Analysis of Nonresponse on the 1980 General Social Survey

Methods for estimating nonresponse bias are reviewed and severalmethods are tried on the 1980 GSS. The results indicate thatvarious estimating procedures are inappropriate and that eventhe more promising techniques can provide faulty estimates ofnonresponse bias. By its nature, nonresponse bias is very difficultto assess accurately and no simple, certain method exists.     

Recalling Attitudes: An Analysis of Retrospective Questions on the 1982 GSS

Research using the General Social Surveys suggests that retrospectivereporting of attitudes may frequently produce inaccurate distributions.In addition, the evidence also indicates that correlations betweenrecalled attitudes and other items may be distorted.