Risk Science Contributions: Three Illustrating Examples

This article aims to demonstrate that risk science is important for society, industry and all of us. Rather few people today, including scientists and managers, are familiar with what this science is about—its foundation and main features—and how it is used to gain knowledge and improve communication and decision making in real-life situations. The article seeks to meet this challenge, by presenting three examples, showing how risk science works to gain new generic, fundamental knowledge on risk concepts, principles, and methods, as well as supporting the practical tackling of actual risk problems.     

The changing practice of eating: evidence from UK time diaries, 1975 and 2000

This paper examines some central themes about change in consumption behaviour through an empirical investigation of the practice of eating. It analyses patterns of food consumption in the UK using time diary data from 1975 and 2000. The practice of eating is decomposed into four component activities which are used to explore systematically the inter-relationships between social processes - such as commodification and temporal fragmentation - and ways of providing and consuming food. It charts the expansion of eating out, the degree to which it substitutes for other eating activities, and the implications of its development for social relations and the temporal organization of daily life. Analysis reveals that food consumption continues to be differentiated along established lines of social division, although the content of those divisions has changed and varies across components of the practice. Increasing commodification of the food chain is documented, but without appearing to have a corrosive impact on household organization or social relationships. While tendencies indicative of temporal fragmentation are revealed, counter-tendencies exist which suggest that the practice of eating is resilient to many forms of external pressure. Finally, the application of a practice-based analytical approach permits critical evaluation of theories of social transformation.     

State transition modeling of complex monitored health data

This article considers the analysis of complex monitored health data, where often one or several signals are reflecting the current health status that can be represented by a finite number of states, in addition to a set of covariates. In particular, we consider a novel application of a non-parametric state intensity regression method in order to study time-dependent effects of covariates on the state transition intensities. The method can handle baseline, time varying as well as dynamic covariates. Because of the non-parametric nature, the method can handle different data types and challenges under minimal assumptions. If the signal that is reflecting the current health status is of continuous nature, we propose the application of a weighted median and a hysteresis filter as data pre-processing steps in order to facilitate robust analysis. In intensity regression, covariates can be aggregated by a suitable functional form over a time history window. We propose to study the estimated cumulative regression parameters for different choices of the time history window in order to investigate short- and long-term effects of the given covariates. The proposed framework is discussed and applied to resuscitation data of newborns collected in Tanzania.     

Urbanization-related distribution patterns and habitat-use by the marine mesopredator,giant Pacific octopus (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Enteroctopus dofleini</Emphasis>)

Urbanization is a process that heavily alters marine and terrestrial environments, though terrestrial urban ecosystems have been studied far more intensively. Terrestrial studies suggest that urbanization can facilitate mesopredators by enhancing food and shelter resources and reducing predation pressure from apex consumers. This in turn has considerable consequences for ecological communities. We evaluated spatial distribution patterns and habitat-use of the marine mesopredator, giant Pacific octopus (Enteroctopus dofleini), relative to terrestrial urbanization intensity in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Using field surveys and citizen-contributed data for E. dofleini, we examined whether: (1) Distribution was related to urbanization, (2) Abundance was related to the extent of benthic anthropogenic debris, and (3) Diet differed as a function of urbanization and den cover. Our results suggest that urbanization impacts may differ with depth. Mixed-effects logistic regression model estimates for the probability of occurrence increased with urbanization in deep-water (> 24 m), and decreased with urbanization in shallow water (< 18 m). Accompanying field surveys indicated that E. dofleini abundance was correlated with the number of benthic anthropogenic debris items, and that E. dofleini diets were not affected by urbanization intensity or den cover. Though E. dofleini may be synanthropic within certain urban environments, the mechanisms driving this pattern likely differ from those affecting common urban mesopredators on land, with den provisioning from man-made structures being more important than altered food resources.     

Identity Deployment and Social Change: Understanding Identity as a Social Movement and Organizational Strategy1

In this article, we discuss the theoretical implications of empirical elaborations of Bernstein’s (1997) model of identity deployment. New research encompasses a diverse array of venues and targets and elaborates on the mechanisms through which identities may be deployed strategically. Application of the identity deployment model spans a variety of so‐called ‘identity movements’ as well as ethnic, nationalist and indigenous movements, and community mobilization. Identity deployment is also a useful strategy in organizational and professional contexts, as in the micro‐brewery movement or culinary movements, demonstrating the theoretical generalizability of the original model. New research closely examines the relationship between identity and strategy and the conditions that affect activists’ choice of identity strategies as well as the situations where they might avoid identity strategies altogether. Research finds that identities may be deployed performatively, rhetorically or discursively. Identity deployment may be facilitated by emotional displays, music and ritual. The way that power and authority are organized in a given venue determines in part the capacity of activists and organizations to alternate between celebrating and suppressing difference from the majority. Identity deployment influences internal and external outcomes, affecting mobilization and goal achievement. Finally, feedback loops link the different analytic dimensions of identity.     

Nonparametric regression estimation in a null recurrent time series

We derive an asymptotic theory of nonparametric estimation for a time series regression model Z_t=f(X_t)+W_t, where {X_t} and {Z_t} are observed nonstationary processes, and {W_t} is an unobserved stationary process. The class of nonstationary processes allowed for {X_t} is a subclass of the class of null recurrent Markov chains. This subclass contains the random walk, unit root processes and nonlinear processes. The process {W_t} is assumed to be linear and stationary.     

Covariate Order Tests for Covariate Effect

A new approach for constructing tests for association between a random right censored life time variable and a covariate is proposed. The basic idea is to first arrange the observations in increasing order of the covariate and then base the test on a certain point process defined by the observation times. Tests constructed by this approach are robust against outliers in the covariate values or misspecification of the covariate scale since they only use the ordering of the covariate. Of particular interest is a test based on the Anderson-Darling statistic. This test has good power properties both against monotonic and nonmonotonic dependencies between the covariate and the life time variable.     

The Science and Profession of Involved Sociology

Abstract

In this essay, I examine the contextual and historical relationship between the national and regional associations in American sociology. Four findings emerge from the analysis of this relationship. First, the regional associations underutilize the populations they represent. Second, the constituencies of the national and regional associations are diverging. Third, the regional associations appear no longer to serve as a viable pathway for involvement in the leadership of the national association. Fourth, the disciplinary visibility of the regional associations journals has declined, on average, since 1990. These four outcomes reflect a disciplinary drift toward internal differentiation, which can only be understood as a manifestation of the culture of American sociology. Specifically, the discipline is becoming increasingly incoherent as a result of the inaccurate perception it holds of itself as a science. This misperception, historically embedded within the disciplinary culture of American sociology, appears to guide the discipline toward an overemphasis on the production of research and the establishment of a governance structure that draws heavily on faculty from doctoral-granting departments. Accordingly, following from my analysis of the discipline's culture. I concude that sociology is better positioned as a profession than a science.