Linking Migration Intentions with Flows: Evidence and Potential Use

In the absence of reliable, internationally available migration flow data necessary for statistical forecasting, policymakers increasingly turn to survey data on emigration intentions to evaluate future migration trends. The important assumption – i.e. that there is a measurable and systematic relationship between the intention to migrate and actual migration – has not been firmly established at the international level. We examine the association between estimated population averages of emigration intentions and official migration flow data based on data for more than 160 countries. The results show a strong association between emigration intentions and recorded bilateral flows to industrialized countries, as well as between intentions and aggregated out‐migration. The results provide policymakers with a reliability assessment of survey data on emigration intentions and encourage future attempts to incorporate survey data in formal statistical migration forecasting models.     

Risky journeys – Risk and decision-making among potential irregular migrants in Senegal and Guinea

In response to well-documented harms inflicted on irregular migrants attempting to travel from West Africa to Europe, various actors have scaled up information interventions to counter misinformation by smuggling networks and facilitate safe migration decisions. Many interventions include information on the potential dangers involved in migration. However, there is a striking lack of empirical evidence assessing a key assumption of campaign effectiveness, that is the relationship between risk perceptions and the decision to migrate irregularly. This study contributes an empirical account based on two independently collected surveys in Senegal and Guinea. Consistent with rational choice theories on migration decisions under uncertainty, the results suggest that higher risk perceptions are consistently and strongly associated with reduced intentions to migrate irregularly. Yet, the explanatory power of risk perceptions depends on context and is generally less important than structural and socio-economic factors.     

The economic effects of large industrial undertakings on rual economies

This paper uses an adaptation of the input-output method to test the impact of large-scale industrial undertakings on comparatively small and sparsely-populated areas. It explains how, firstly, a model was built based upon a specimen rural area and including a series of vectors which allow local demand to change as incomes change. The model was then generalized so that data could be inserted to simulate any similar area. The paper then explains the results obtained from inserting a large-scale industrial activity into the model.     

The role of stalking in domestic violence crime reports generated by the Colorado Springs Police Department

A review of 1,785 domestic violence crime reports generated by the Colorado Springs Police Department found that 1 in 6 (16.5 percent) contained evidence the suspect stalked the victim. Female victims were significantly more likely than male victims to allege stalking by their partners (18.3 vs. 10.5 percent). Most stalkers were former rather than current intimates. Regardless of victims' gender, reports with stalking allegations were significantly less likely to mention physical abuse or victim injury in the presenting condition, to involve households with children, or to involve victims and suspects who were using alcohol at the time of the report. Female victims who alleged stalking by their partner were significantly less likely than female victims who did not allege stalking to be emotionally distraught at the time of the report, but significantly more likely to have an active restraining order against the suspect, and to sign releases to facilitate the police investigation. Police almost never charged domestic violence stalking suspects with stalking, preferring instead to charge them with harassment or violation of a restraining order.     

Comparing stalking victimization from legal and victim perspectives

Because stalking has only recently been recognized as a serious social problem and criminal justice concern, it is not surprising that there is little consensus among lawmakers about what constitutes stalking. To further understanding of how legal definitions and victim definitions of stalking intersect and diverge, this study compares stalking prevalence using a definition of stalking that is based on the model antistalking code for states developed by the Federal government versus a definition of stalking that is victim delineated. Data for the study come from a national telephone survey that queried 8,000 men and 8,000 women about their experiences with stalking victimization using both direct questions that contained the word "stalking" and behaviorally specific questions. Results show that prevalence estimates increase when respondents are allowed to self-define stalking victimization. However, victim definitions of stalking tend to converge with the model antistalking code's definition of stalking in the vast majority of cases. Only 4% of survey respondents defined themselves as stalking victims but failed to meet the legal definition of a stalking victim. A negligible proportion denied being stalked despite the fact they met the legal definition of a stalking victim.     

Comparing violence over the life span in samples of same-sex and opposite-sex cohabitants

Using data from a nationally representative telephone survey that was conducted from November 1995 to May 1996, this study compares lifetime experiences with violent victimization among men and women with a history of same-sex cohabitation and their counterparts with a history of marriage and/or opposite-sex cohabitation only. The study found that respondents who had lived with a same-sex intimate partner were significantly more likely than respondents who had married or lived with an opposite-sex partner only to have been: (a) raped as minors and adults; (b) physically assaulted as children by adult caretakers; and (c) physically assaulted as adults by all types of perpetrators, including intimate partners. The study also confirms previous reports that intimate partner violence is more prevalent among gay male couples than heterosexual couples. However, it contradicts reports that intimate partner violence is more prevalent among lesbian couples than heterosexual couples. Overall study findings suggest that intimate partner violence is perpetrated primarily by men, whether against same-sex or opposite-sex partners.     

The withdrawal of the welfare state: Elderly care in Sweden in the 1990s

In Sweden, clear changes in the care of the elderly have occurred during the 1990s, with fewer people being provided public care, although greater efforts are now directed towards those most in need of help. Elderly people are cared for increasingly in other ways: by the family, by means of market-provided care, and by voluntary and informal means. Differences between municipalities are considerable. A comparative study was conducted in eight Swedish municipalities, four of them characterized by extensive reorganization of home-help services, and the other four constituting a reference group where such changes had not occurred. The aim was to examine processes of setting local priorities and adjustments in a period of marked structural change. Interviews with local politicians, administrators, professionals, and union representatives, and with the elderly themselves, were the main sources of data. The process of determining the extent and content of home care services in the municipalities was found to be a complex process, one involving a number of partly interdependent factors. Restructuring was found to be greatest in the context of a traditionally strong reliance on home-help services, rather than in the context of institutionalized care, where administrative decision-making and a medical and rehabilitative perspective dominated.