Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

Who We Are Affects How We Do: The Financial Benefits of Organizational Identification

One ultimate test of the material value of identification in an organizational context is whether it relates to productivity. In this rare study of a business team in a global consumer goods company, we demonstrate a sales benefit of organizational identification when correcting for systematic between‐unit differences in sales. Findings also question the theoretical and practical meaning of ‘proximity’ in accounting for salience variations in identification – the best predictor of sales was the degree of identification with the superordinate business unit. Findings shed light on the scientific as well as managerial and business utility of the organizational identity concept.     

Bayesian inference for dynamic social network data

We consider a continuous-time model for the evolution of social networks. A social network is here conceived as a (di-) graph on a set of vertices, representing actors, and the changes of interest are creation and disappearance over time of (arcs) edges in the graph. Hence we model a collection of random edge indicators that are not, in general, independent. We explicitly model the interdependencies between edge indicators that arise from interaction between social entities. A Markov chain is defined in terms of an embedded chain with holding times and transition probabilities. Data are observed at fixed points in time and hence we are not able to observe the embedded chain directly. Introducing a prior distribution for the parameters we may implement an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posterior distribution of the parameters by simulating the evolution of the embedded process between observations.     

Exposure to occupational violence and the buffering effects of intra-oranizational support

This paper presents a conceptually distinct analysis of the data first reported by Leather et al. Specifically, it investigates the effects of exposure to a variety of forms of work-related violence upon work attitudes and general well-being within a sample of UK public house licensees—individuals who manage public houses and hold the licence permitting the sale of alcoholic drinks on the premises. In addition, it examines the role of social support in moderating such effects. Based upon a sample of 242 licensees, it reports a consistent interaction between exposure to such violence and the availability of perceived intra-organizational support in determining the size of any negative effects upon individual well-being, job satisfaction and organizational commitment. It is argued that exposure to all forms of work-related violence, including intimidation, verbal abuse and threat, should be seen as a potential stressor within the work environment, the negative effects of which are buffered by perceived support from within the organization, but not by that perceived to be available from informal sources such as family and friends.     

Analysis of incomplete durations with application to contraceptive use

Models for analysing incomplete durations obtained from cross-sectional surveys are presented. The aim of the paper is to develop a framework for analysing the incomplete duration of episodes in progress at the time of the survey by formulating generalized linear models and fitting and assessing them by using standard statistical packages. The maximum quasi-likelihood method is used for model fitting. The choice of the distribution and the diagnostic procedures are discussed. Simulated data from two distributions (the Weibull and log-logistic distributions) are used to evaluate the methodology developed and to assess model misspecifications. A data set on the current use of the contraceptive pill from a cross-sectional survey in Egypt is analysed.     

A simple way to obtain the spectral decomposition of variance components models for balanced data

By means of an example it is shown how eigenvalues and eigenvectors of variance components models can be obtained straightforwardly when balanced data are available. Simple asymptotically efficient estimators of the variance components are presented.     

Best linear predictors for factor scores

From the literature three types of predictors for factor scores are available. These are characterized by the constraints: linear, linear conditionally unbiased, and linear correlation preserving. Each of these constraints generates a class of predictors. Best predictors are defined in terms of Lowner's partial matrix order applied to matrices of mean square error of prediction. It is shown that within the first two classes a best predictor exists and that it does not exist in the third.