A refined estimator of measures of location of the age at first marriage

Because of bias of unknown sign and extent introduced by age misreporting when calculating the singulate mean age of marriage in the usual manner, Van de Walle has suggested a fairly robust estimator based on stable population structure. Unfortunately not much is known about the properties of this estimator. Various demographers have argued informally that it indeed estimates the SMAM; others feel that it instead estimates the mean age of marriage in a cohort, the mean age of marriage in the stable population, or the singulate median age of marriage. In this paper the properties of this estimator are examined. Further, extensions of the Van de Walle estimator based on regression are shown to be significantly superior to the estimator alone.     

A specification of marital fertility by parents’ age,age atmarriage and marital duration

The positive association between wife's age at marriage and fertility experienced at the older reproductive ages, cited in recent natural fertility literature, is explored using Mormon birth cohorts from 1840 to 1879. When this relationship is specified by husband's age at marriage and marriage duration, the results indicate that older-aged husbands depress marital fertility only at higher marriage durations. The general decomposition of age-specific fertility utilizing both mother's and father's age is also considered. The results show that mother's aging is the most important factor, while father's aging has a moderately negative effect under a natural fertility regime.     

A reassessment of the demography of traditional rural China

An analysis of the composition, characteristics, and vital processes of the population of rural mainland China was undertaken using data collected as part of a study of land utilization carried out by Naking University in 1929-1931. These data have been reappraised using techniques for demographic analysis of faulty data which shows a consistent picture of the Chinese farmer of high morta moderate fertility, and early and universal marriage. Estimates of the singulate mean age at marriage was 17.5 for females and 21.3 for males. Fewer than 1 in 1000 women and 3 in 1000 men never married. The reported parity of older women was only slightly above 5, which disputes the very large historical family size that has been imputed to the chinese. There was a life expectancy of less than 25 years for each sex, and very high infant mortality. These characteristics were of sufficient persistence to have generated a stable age distribution.     

Fertility and mortality estimation from the Panama Retrospective Demographic Survey, 1976

Summary Data from the Retrospective Demographic Survey of Panama offer a unique opportunity to test a wide range of methods for estimating indirectly basic demographic parameters from inaccurate and incomplete data. Our primary emphasis is to evaluate methods for estimating adult mortality from information on widowhood and orphanhood, though estimates of childhood mortality obtained from information on sibling and child survivorship are assessed as well. The results for most of the estimating procedures are consistent; this finding is encouraging because it lends support to the hypothesis that the techniques can provide good estimates of mortality. Methods which produce results which are inconsistent provide valuable lessons. In particular, methods for providing unconditional estimates of values ofl (x) for adults by combining directly information on childhood mortality and adult mortality are shown to produce estimates which predominantly reflect the level of childhood mortality employed. Furthermore, within-method consistency of estimates appears to be a very poor indicator of reliable performance of the estimating technique or quality of data, since most methods yielded estimates which were internally consistent, though estimates made by different methods could differ considerably. In summary, the analysis indicates a birth rate of around 35 per thousand, a death rate of around 7.5 per thousand, a total fertility ratio of about 4.8, and expectations of life at birth of approximately 59 and 64 years for men and women respectively.     

Further developments in indirect mortality estimation

Summary A variety of indirect estimators of mortality; survival of children by marriage duration of mother, survival of first spouse by marriage duration and by age, maternal orphanhood, and survival of siblings, are investigated by the use of a wide range of model fertility and mortality situations. Survival probabilities are then related by regression analysis to the proportions with a particular characteristic, to yield an equation which can then be used to estimate the survival probability in a population. Maternal orphanhood and survival of first spouse by age have already shown themselves to be useful, and the new developments are only simplifications of the existing methodology. Survival of first spouse by duration of marriage, and survival of siblings are, however, new methods which have yet to be justified by field experience. In conclusion, the features common to all indirect mortality estimation procedures are outlined, and the direction future developments may take in response to gradually improving data quality is suggested.     

A tale of two decades: Relative intra-family earning capacity and changes in family welfare over time

The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of economic changes in the 1990s and 2000s on the welfare of married households, taking into account the relative earnings structure of husband and wife. Modeling the household members’ joint labor supply, we find that families in which the wife is the higher wage earner experienced as much welfare gain in the 1990s and significantly higher welfare gains in the 2000s as families in which the husband is the higher wage earner.     

Model fertility schedules: variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations

The nature of the roots for a set of fertility functions were explored in this study, resulting in tables from creation of a family of model fertility schedules. These model fertility schedules accurately represent the full range of age structures of fertility in large populations; they have close fit to various accurately recorded fertility schedules of very different form. The text for the tables includes discussions of: 1)the basis for the fertility schedules, 2)the age structure of the proportion ever married (G(a) specified by 2 parameters, 3)single parameter specified age structure of marital fertility, 4)the similarity of model schedules of age specific fertility to the age pattern of fertility in actual populations, 5)model fertility schedules' suitability during changing nuptuality. Possible uses of the schedules and their application to different countries (England, Wales, Peru) are also described.     

A close look at the demography of Afghanistan

The first survey designed to allow estimates of the demographic characteristics of Afghanistan's sedentary population was conducted during the period 1972-1974. Our analysis of these data, based on recently developed techniques for handling imcomplete or inaccurate data, suggests that this population lives under conditions that are extreme when judged by modern standards. Marriage is early, especially for females, and universal. Marital fertility conforms to a pattern of natural fertility and total fertility is high. The birth rate is among the highest in the world today, and the expectation of life at birth is among the very lowest. Mortality is lower in urban areas than in rural areas, whereas total fertility is approximately the same in both. Our estimates of fertility and mortality imply stable populations which match closely the observed age distributions for both the rural and urban areas.