The Distribution of Infectious Diseases and Extrinsic Mortality Across Countries

Analysis of the spatial distribution and geographical determinants of human infectious agents across countries suggests that the total number of multi-host vector-transmitted diseases provides a useful measure of the mortality environment. Pathogens of this type are difficult to eradicate because they multiply in both humans and non-human hosts and are bound to specific climatological conditions. The count index of multi-host vector-transmitted diseases that are endemic in a country is a good proxy of life expectancy and of the likelihood of epidemics. This count is useful for cross-country empirical comparisons because it is not driven by demographic and economic conditions.     

REPRESENTATIVE TRUST AND RECIPROCITY: PREVALENCE AND DETERMINANTS

This paper provides evidence about the determinants of trust and reciprocal inclinations, that is, a tendency for people to respond in kind to hostile or kind actions, in a representative setting. We investigate the prevalence of reciprocity in the population, the correlation between trust and positive and negative reciprocal inclinations within person, the individual determinants of reciprocity, and the relationship with psychological measures of personality. We find that most people state reciprocal inclinations, in particular in terms of positive reciprocity, as well as substantial heterogeneity in the degree of trust and reciprocity. Trust and positive reciprocity are only weakly correlated, while trust and negative reciprocity exhibit a negative correlation. In terms of determinants, being female and increasing age are associated with stronger positive and weaker negative reciprocal tendencies. Taller people are more positively reciprocal, but height has no impact on negative reciprocity. Psychological traits also affect trust and reciprocity. ( JEL D63, J3, J6)     

On Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Aalen's Additive Risk Model

Abstract.  In this paper we propose goodness-of-fit tests for Aalen's additive risk model. They are based on test statistics the asymptotic distributions of which are determined under both the null and alternative hypotheses. The results are derived using martingale techniques for counting processes. An important feature of these tests is that they can be adjusted to particular alternatives. One of the alternatives we consider is Cox's multiplicative risk model. It is perhaps remarkable that such a test needs no estimate of the baseline hazard in the Cox model. We present simulation studies which give an impression of the performance of the proposed tests. In addition, the tests are applied to real data sets.