Does a Reactor Need a Safety Backfit? Case Study on Communicating Decision and Risk Analysis Information to Managers

An approach to communicating decision and risk analysis findings to managers is illustrated in a real case context. This article consists essentially of a report prepared for senior managers of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to help them make a reactor safety decision. It illustrates the communication of decision analysis findings relating to technical risks, costs, and benefits in support of a major risk management decision: whether or not to require a safety backfit. Its focus is on the needs of decision makers, and it introduces some novel communication devices.     

Development NGOs and Political Participation of the Poor in Bangladesh and Nepal

This paper examines the role of development NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) in furthering the political participation of the poor, with data from Bangladesh and Nepal. The topic is discussed from three aspects: the role of NGOs in prodemocracy movements, the issues raised by antiglobalization movements, and the extent of NGO involvement in local government elections. The paper draws on fieldwork conducted in two villages—one in Bangladesh and the other in Nepal. It is concluded that development NGOs tend to contribute more to elite interests than to the democratic political participation of the poor.     

BARGAINING WITH SHARED INFORMATION*

This paper formulates and analyzes models of two-party bargaining behavior where each side possesses private information about its preferences that is unavailable to the other. We examine the strategic behavior that bargainers might exhibit when disclosing information either to an arbitrator or to each other. Our results show that when bargaining is over one issue, it is relatively uncomplicated analytically to calculate the optimal strategy, but, despite this, even sophisticated bargainers tend to make wrong assumptions about the behavior of others and to use strategies that are far from optimal. When the bargaining encompasses several factors, computation of optimal strategies becomes very cumbersome and the use of an optimal strategy does not gain a bargainer much over what he could have achieved with truthful revelation. Thus, in theory, truthful revelation is not the best course of action to adopt for a bargainer interested in maximizing individual gain, but in practice the alternatives may involve mistaken assumptions about the behavior of others and may therefore turn out to be inferior to truthful revelation.     

Decision analysis for water resources planning

Quantitative decision analysis techniques were applied to a particular problem of water resources planning: how should the water supply of the metropolitan Boston area be increased to meet the projected demand for 1990? The analytic approach used a multiattribute value model to evaluate several alternatives from the points of view of different interested constituencies. The model was presented to a number of individuals and groups with responsibility for recommending policy, and they indicated an interest in the findings.     

Step-through simulation

This report describes the initial development of the Step-Through variant of Monte Carlo simulation, a new procedure for implementing decision analysis or for training decision makers. Like regular Monte Carlo simulation, it involves sampling possible aftermaths of an initial action, and generating a distribution of outcome values for it. However, the detailed structure and/or assessments of the decision model are elicited as called for in the execution of each trial. It, therefore, permits substantial economy of elicitation if there are few trials. The Step-Through procedure also offers economy of elicitation and calculation over a traditional extensive tree decision-analytic model without requiring simplifications or aggregations in the model's conceptualization. In addition to describing this procedure, this paper presents the results of a preliminary test and evaluation of its viability.     

A CASE IN ON-LINE DECISION ANALYSIS FOR PRODUCT PLANNING1

This report presents an application of quantitative decision-analytic techniques to consider an opportunity for capital investment in a new product. Decision analysis is a well-established technique for evaluating major decisions in which substantial resources and time are available for the analysis and the problem is definitely formulated at the outset. This case study, however, illustrates how decision-analytic techniques can be used on-line to improve decision making in a situation in which time and resources are limited, and the manager's perception of the problem changes in response to feedback from the analysis. The basic decision problem was whether or not the AIL division of Cutler-Hammer, Incorporated should purchase a six-month option on a flight-safety system patent. The president of AIL had only a few weeks in which to make a decision. The analytic approach focused on a probabilistic discounted earnings model. This model was refined over a two-week period through a sequence of iterations which incorporated the results of both direct and indirect assessments of probabilities and values. The analysis affected the company's decision process by providing a vehicle for structuring the ongoing communication between AIL's president and his advisors, and by focusing their attention on the most important issues. In the end, the analysis facilitated a unanimous decision from the decision-making group not to purchase the option, but to consider participating in the license as a subcontractor at a later date. This strategy had not been considered at the outset.