THE INFLUENTIALS: BACK TO THE CONCEPT OF OPINION LEADERS?

The concept of opinion leadership has been related to a lingeringtheoretical and methodological debate. The present study examinesa new measure to identify opinion leaders (the Strength of PersonalityScale) developed by the Allensbach Survey Center in Germany.The results of applying this measure in Germany and Israel allowedthe testing of its validity and efficiency. The findings, however,do not suggest that the influentials identified by this scaleare opinion leaders according to the original conceptualization,but fit better the more sophisticated characterization of opinionleadership that stemmed from modifications of the original conceptof opinion leaders.     

THE OBSESSION TO FORECAST: PRE-ELECTION POLLS IN THE ISRAELI PRESS

The generous coverage of pre-election polls in the media hasstimulated a debate on the effects of publicized polls on voters.Data for this study come from a content analysis of all pressreports on polls during six pre-election campaigns in Israel(1969–88). The findings highlight the impressive increaseof poll reports both by space and by prominence in the press.Analysis of the reports' content reveals that the style of reportingpolls has become dominated by "horse-race" journalism, wherepredictions and popularity ratings are the leading themes. Inaddition, although the reports have become more detailed andinformative, they still do not adequately define or interpretmethodological deficiencies. Finally, the analysis examinesthe intercorrelations between attributes of coverage and predictionserrors. The fact that the independent variable, media coverageof polls, has changed significantly calls for the inclusionof this factor in any study of polls' effects.