Low dose risk estimation via simultaneous statistical inferences

Summary.  The paper develops and studies simultaneous confidence bounds that are useful for making low dose inferences in quantitative risk analysis. Application is intended for risk assessment studies where human, animal or ecological data are used to set safe low dose levels of a toxic agent, but where study information is limited to high dose levels of the agent. Methods are derived for estimating simultaneous, one-sided, upper confidence limits on risk for end points measured on a continuous scale. From the simultaneous confidence bounds, lower confidence limits on the dose that is associated with a particular risk (often referred to as a bench-mark dose ) are calculated. An important feature of the simultaneous construction is that any inferences that are based on inverting the simultaneous confidence bounds apply automatically to inverse bounds on the bench-mark dose.     

Benchmark Analysis: Shopping with Proper Confidence

We discuss the issue of using benchmark doses for quantifying (excess) risk associated with exposure to environmental hazards. The paradigm of low-dose risk estimation in dose-response modeling is used as the primary application scenario. Emphasis is placed on making simultaneous inferences on benchmark doses when data are in the form of proportions, although the concepts translate easily to other forms of outcome data.     

论思想政治教育者的素质

思想政治建设是以德治国的重要内容。本文就教育者应具备的素质问题 ,谈一些认识 ,以求得思想政治教育更有成效、更有针对性。     

African American family life in societal context: Crisis and hope

Since 1965 hundreds of articles and books have been published about African American families. Nevertheless, our understanding of these families continues to be limited. There is a tendency to gloss over important within-group differences; thus, monolithic, stereotypic and inaccurance portrayals of Black family life are common. This paper sets aside debates of Black family pathology or viability, focusing instead on these families' essential character. The paper seeks to understand Black families on their own terms, locating them in relevant social, historical, political and cultural contexts. Key empirical patterns and trends reveal dramatic changes in Black family geographic location, headship, quality of life and socioeconomic status since 1950.A complex picture is revealed. There has been gradual but steady overall improvement alongside persistent, extreme racial disparties and pronounced class disparities among Black families. The proposed Black Family Socio-Ecological Context model specifies and connects institutional, interpersonal, environmental, temporal and cultural facts that shape the essential character of Black family life in such a way as to produce characteristics simultaneously shared and idiosyncratic. The model also provides an organized, systematic accounting of research and public policy issues relevant to the study of African American families.An early version co-authored with Richard A. English was presented during the National Council on Family Relations Meetings in Portland, Oregon, October 1980.     

Exploration to Foster Career Development

Responses to the Adult Career Concerns Inventory (ACCI: Super, Thompson, Lindeman, Myers, & Jordaan, 1988) were organized through cluster analysis to identify different ways in which adults use exploratory behavior to cope with career development tasks. Significant differences in life-role salience among the types of adult career explorers identified were also investigated. Findings indicated a variety of ways in which adults use exploratory behavior. However, no significant differences were found in life-role salience among the types of career explorers. The discussion explains how career counselors can interpret their clients' ACCI profiles to select appropriate career interventions.     

The NTEE classification system: tests of reliability/validity in the field of higher education

An analysis of the field of higher education reveals a surprisingly large number of classification errors within the (US) National Taxonomy of Exempt Entities database. Of the nearly 4,000 non-profit entities coded within the universe of institutions of higher education, we estimate that approximately 60 per cent were incorrectly included (Type II errors). Institutions incorrectly excluded from the higher education universe (Type I errors) represent roughly 10 per cent of the institutions coded correctly. These errors result primarily from assigning codes on the basis of the names of organisations (for example, College Park Towers is classified as a college, when it is in fact a housing complex for senior citizens) and from trying too hard to assign codes in ambiguous situations. The consequences can be significant for the users of these data, and we recommend raising bright warning flags while simultaneously enlisting the help of the entire non-profit sector in improving the classification coding process.The authors are with The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. In addition to our colleagues on the staff of the Foundation, we wish to thank Helmut Anheier, Ted Bozovich, Harvey Dale, Virginia Hodgkinson, Stephen Noga and Christopher Toppe for helpful suggestions.