对我国经济周期波动变化特征的实证分析

我国正处于向市场经济转轨的关键时期,经济结构发生着深刻的变化,这使得我国近 几次出现的经济波动特征也很不相同。近十几年来,我们一直使用预警信号系统等方法监测宏观经 济运行态势,在此基础上,通过对比分析我国20世纪80年代末以来发生的几次经济波动,及各主 要经济变量的动态变化,探寻我国增长率循环(growthratecycles)的产生原因。     

Governance Structures,Multidimensional Efficiency and Firm Profitability

Using a panel data set of 361 German corporations for the period 1991–1996 we test the hypothesis that firms with more efficient governance structures have higher profitability. To determine efficiency we compare firms with respect to ownership concentration, the identity of owners, capital structure, investment and firm growth by a multi-input/multi-output Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This non-parametric linear programming technique considers both multiple in- and out- puts. Based on the concept of pareto efficiency, it computes an efficiency score where the associated weights of the inputs and outputs are determined endogenously. The DEA efficiency scores are then used as explanatory variables in panel data regressions of profitability. Our main finding is that the efficiency scores indeed contribute significantly to explaining profitability differences between firms, even after controlling for industry effects and unobserved systematic firm effects.     

Where Activity Without Pay Pays Off: International Evidence on Participating in Voluntary Associations and Wages

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Empirical evidence from single-country studies on the relation between volunteering and wages is mixed. This paper uses an...     

证券公司失败预警研究

 内容提要：一系列国内外证券公司（投资银行）的失败危机表明,及早有效地对证券公司（投资银行）的失败进行预警极为重要。本文在借鉴国内外建立企业失败预警模型的理论和经验的基础上,以我国证券公司为研究对象,将证券公司财务失败界定为证券公司破产或被证券监管部门采取风险处置措施,选取了24家财务失败证券公司和24家财务健康证券公司为样本,有针对性地选取和设计了一系列指标,对比应用了Logit方法、Probit方法和判别分析方法,最终选用Logit方法成功建立了证券公司失败预警模型。     

中国经济监测预警分析系统的框架与结构

中国经济监测预警分析系统(System of Ecencmic Mcnitcring & Warning Analysis,以下简称SEMWA)是在微机上进行经济活动分析的综合性软件系统。该系统针对中国实际经济运作机理设计,在自身多年研究成果的基础上,吸纳国内外最新研究成果,采用高级程序设计语言Microsoft C6.0编写完成。它主要用于经济运行状态的评价、经济景气循环波动监测、经济发展趋势推断、经济运行警情预报、经济变量间协调行为和政策效用分析等方面的研究。