Bayesian comparison of private and common values in structural second-price auctions

Private and common values (CVs) are the two main competing valuation models in auction theory and empirical work. In the framework of second-price auctions, we compare the empirical performance of the independent private value (IPV) model to the CV model on a number of different dimensions, both on real data from eBay coin auctions and on simulated data. Both models fit the eBay data well with a slight edge for the CV model. However, the differences between the fit of the models seem to depend to some extent on the complexity of the models. According to log predictive score the IPV model predicts auction prices slightly better in most auctions, while the more robust CV model is much better at predicting auction prices in more unusual auctions. In terms of posterior odds, the CV model is clearly more supported by the eBay data.     

How Long Does Unemployment Last?

A typical period of unemployment lasts 2 or 3 months. The length of a period of unemployment varies considerably, however, depending on age, sex, race, and level of education. Older, college-educated workers often face a job search period of 4–6 months. It is also important to note that one unemployed person in three stops looking for work and withdraws from the labor force (at least temporarily) before a job is obtained.     

Designing np control charts

This paper presents the results of a simulation approach to the design of economic attribute control charts. The approach taken differs from the classical studies reported in the literature in two respects. First, the often made assumption that the out-of-control state of a process will remain so until detection is relaxed. This in effect allows the average proportion of defectives to deteriorate further before the out-of-control state is detected. Second, there is no requirement for detailed information on the exact process behaviour in the out-of-control state. It is assumed that a multitude of out-of-control causes exist and that the proportion defective is equally likely to be within a specified range of values. The relaxation of these two assumptions makes the model realistic and gives it wide practical applications in the control of a manufacturing process. The simulation computer programs developed are sufficiently compact to run on the low cost microcomputers.     

Supporting Vulnerable Families Through School-Based Mental Health Services: Results of Caregiver and Teacher Focus Groups

Family perspectives facilitate participation and positive outcomes in child mental health treatment. In schools, families and teachers must cooperate to best meet children's mental health needs, also making teacher perspectives important. In this study, caregivers and teachers participated in focus groups following the pilot year of a school-based mental health (SBMH) project. Participants noted successes and challenges of the project and suggested improvements. Although this study focuses on the SBMH project, many of the study implications are applicable to other school mental health programs and may be of value to school and community practitioners.     

The interplay between psychometric and sociometric data and the willingness to adopt innovations

Due to high failure rates of new products, marketers are seeking ways to actively manage the diffusion of innovations. It is well accepted that individuals, who exert a remarkably strong influence on others and are usually called opinion leaders, play an important role in the diffusion process. In marketing, such opinion leaders are typically identified by self-designation, which can be biased. A second option to identify opinion leaders is the use of sociometric data which becomes increasingly available. In this paper we examine the effect of social position on the perceived opinion leadership and the resulting behavioral intention in terms of adoption behavior. In an empirical study, we examine the adoption of a new drug called “Byetta” and find that sociometric opinion leadership is an antecedent of the psychometric characteristic. Our results also confirm that such opinion leaders are more likely to adopt innovations. We also find that opinion seekers, individuals who often sought information or opinions from interpersonal sources, can be more easily identified with psychometric data. They are more restrictive in terms of adoption. Interestingly, both types are active as market mavens and thus may either advocate the adoption of the innovation or may be frankly conservative regarding the new product adoption. If opinion seekers can, however, be persuaded to adopt the innovation, they may also serve as an important multiplier. This has several implications for pharmaceutical firms that try to optimize their sales force—influencing opinion leaders may indeed start and fasten the adoption process of innovative products. But it is also necessary to allay opinion seekers’ doubts since they might slow down the adoption process. The identification of opinion leaders might not only be based on difficult to obtain psychometric data, but also on sociometric data from social networks, which is becoming more and more available.     

The dynamic,complex and diverse living and care arrangements of young New Zealanders: implications for policy

The living arrangements of young people in New Zealand are diverse and often complex. In this article we report the range of care and living arrangements of 209 15-year-old New Zealanders, 47 of whom identified as Māori. These young people were participants in the second generation of a cohort study. Data were collected from their parents via a life history calendar and analysed for variety and consistency of care arrangements, household membership and transitions. Few participants had a consistent pattern of parental care arrangements and most had experienced multiple changes in household composition and frequent changes of address. We conclude that the whānau/family lives of many young New Zealanders are complex and dynamic. These observations contrast with the conventional notions of family life that form the basis for New Zealand’s family policies. We argue that social policies and services impacting on young people need to reflect the lived reality of young people if they are to meet young people’s needs.     

A Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Home Environment and Home Social Behavior Data from the Elementary School Success Profile for Families

The purpose of the current study was to test the factor structure and scale quality of data provided by caregivers about the home environment and child behavior at home using the Elementary School Success Profile (ESSP) for Families. The ESSP for Families is one component of the ESSP, an online social-environmental assessment that also collects information from students and teachers. Confirmatory factor analyses with Mplus and weighted least squares means and variances adjusted estimation took into account the hierarchical nature and ordinal level of the data. The sample comprised caregivers of 692 third- through fifth-grade students from 13 elementary schools in four districts. A primary model and an alternative model were tested. Models were tested on a random calibration sample and validated with another sample. A nine-factor first-order solution demonstrated superior fit to the data. Scores from the nine scales also demonstrated acceptable internal consistency reliability. Implications for practice and further research are presented.