Odd-Burr generalized family of distributions with some applications

We study a new family of continuous distributions with two extra shape parameters called the Burr generalized family of distributions. We investigate the shapes of the density and hazard rate function. We derive explicit expressions for some of its mathematical quantities. The estimation of the model parameters is performed by maximum likelihood. We prove the flexibility of the new family by means of applications to two real data sets. Furthermore, we propose a new extended regression model based on the logarithm of the Burr generalized distribution. This model can be very useful to the analysis of real data and provide more realistic fits than other special regression models.     

Research on termites in urban areas: approaches and gaps

Urban Ecosystems - Termites comprise a large group of organisms in urban areas, and this leads us to believe that there is a comprehensive literature on the subject, sufficient for conducting a...     

Regression models to dependence for exceedance

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) aims to study the tails of probability distributions in order to measure and quantify extreme events of maximum and minimum. In river flow data, an extreme level of a river may be related to the level of a neighboring river that flows into it. In this type of data, it is very common for flooding of a location to have been caused by a very large flow from an affluent river that is tens or hundreds of kilometers from this location. In this sense, an interesting approach is to consider a conditional model for the estimation of a multivariate model. Inspired by this idea, we propose a Bayesian model to describe the dependence of exceedance between rivers, where we considered a conditionally independent structure. In this model, the dependence between rivers is captured by modeling the excess marginally of one river as a consequence of linear functions of the other rivers. The results showed that there is a strong and positive connection between excesses in one river caused by the excesses of the other rivers.     

Study of activities of postmen motorcyclists: a look at motorcycle accidents

This article presents the steps of transforming the material and organizational aspects in the work environment, beyond the social order for the proper development of activities in the Household Distribution Center, the Postmen Motorcyclists. The demand was made by managers from the accident records, establishing the need to identify the working conditions of postmen motorcyclists, regarding motorcycle accidents occurring on public roads. Method: Based on the characteristics of the steps required by the methodology, was necessary to realize internal and external observations, with the aim of identifying the dynamics of the accident and the collective dimensions of activity which requires a strategy for monitoring the work on the street.     

Designing the safety of healthcare. Participation of ergonomics to the design of cooperative systems in radiotherapy

This communication deals with the involvement of ergonomists in a research-action design process of a software platform in radiotherapy. The goal of the design project is to enhance patient safety by designing a workflow software that supports cooperation between professionals producing treatment in radiotherapy. The general framework of our approach is the ergonomics management of a design process, which is based in activity analysis and grounded in participatory design. Two fields are concerned by the present action: a design environment which is a participatory design process that involves software designers, caregivers as future users and ergonomists; and a reference real work setting in radiotherapy. Observations, semi-structured interviews and participatory workshops allow the characterization of activity in radiotherapy dealing with uses of cooperative tools, sources of variability and non-ruled strategies to manage the variability of the situations. This production of knowledge about work searches to enhance the articulation between technocentric and anthropocentric approaches, and helps in clarifying design requirements. An issue of this research-action is to develop a framework to define the parameters of the workflow tool, and the conditions of its deployment.     

A Bayesian model for multiple change point to extremes,with application to environmental and financial data

Abrupt changes often occur for environmental and financial time series. Most often, these changes are due to human intervention. Change point analysis is a statistical tool used to analyze sudden changes in observations along the time series. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for extreme values for environmental and economic datasets that present a typical change point behavior. The model proposed in this paper addresses the situation in which more than one change point can occur in a time series. By analyzing maxima, the distribution of each regime is a generalized extreme value distribution. In this model, the change points are unknown and considered parameters to be estimated. Simulations of extremes with two change points showed that the proposed algorithm can recover the true values of the parameters, in addition to detecting the true change points in different configurations. Also, the number of change points was a problem to be considered, and the Bayesian estimation can correctly identify the correct number of change points for each application. Environmental and financial data were analyzed and results showed the importance of considering the change point in the data and revealed that this change of regime brought about an increase in the return levels, increasing the number of floods in cities around the rivers. Stock market levels showed the necessity of a model with three different regimes.     

Influential observation in complex normal data for problems in allometry

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate how some results related to the complex normal distribution are relevant in size and shape analysis. Our main focus is on the derivation of influential measures. In particular, Cook and Kullback–Leibler distances are combined with their respective asymptotic results as well as to an alternative process of defining cut-off points. Some numerical examples illustrate how these measures are used in practice. We perform an application to simulated and actual data. Results provide evidence that the methodology based on Kullback–Leibler distance outperforms one in terms of the Cook classic distance.     

A semiparametric Bayesian approach to extreme value estimation

This paper is concerned with extreme value density estimation. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) beyond a given threshold is combined with a nonparametric estimation approach below the threshold. This semiparametric setup is shown to generalize a few existing approaches and enables density estimation over the complete sample space. Estimation is performed via the Bayesian paradigm, which helps identify model components. Estimation of all model parameters, including the threshold and higher quantiles, and prediction for future observations is provided. Simulation studies suggest a few useful guidelines to evaluate the relevance of the proposed procedures. They also provide empirical evidence about the improvement of the proposed methodology over existing approaches. Models are then applied to environmental data sets. The paper is concluded with a few directions for future work.     

Becoming mother and father in late adoption: a case study

Adoption in Brazil has long been related to practices of not disclosing the child's history and origins, which become a family secret. As a consequence, most couples who apply for adoption prefer newborns. Late adoption is still an uncommon practice and requires a 'family project' which accepts a different family model, new meanings of motherhood and fatherhood, and different ways of building affectionate bonds. It is important to investigate how a man and a woman become parents under those circumstances. This study aimed to follow up the emergence of adoption, motherhood and fatherhood meanings, in the discursive practices involved in the construction of adoptive parenthood in the Brazilian setting. This paper presents important meanings regarding parenthood produced by a couple who adopted two sisters, aged 4 and 5 years. Analysis revealed that to better understand the late adoption process, the meanings that emerge in the discursive practices should be considered. Those meanings pervade and circumscribe the family relationships, influencing how the individuals constitute their roles in the family. It is through the analysis of this dialogical process of construction that it is possible to identify the challenges in late adoption and to unravel the process of constructing affectionate relationships.     

Biodiversity conservation in urban parks: a study of ground-dwelling ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Rio de Janeiro City

Urban Ecosystems - Urban green recreational spaces may provide habitat for animals and plants. We investigated the importance of urban public parks in the city of Rio de Janeiro with regard to the...