DURATION MODELS FOR CREDIT RATING MIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

We introduce a specific duration model to analyze the prediction of the credit rating migration. We consider hazard rate processes based on multi‐state autoregressive conditional duration models. To take account of the economic context, we model the conditional mean of the duration between two ratings by means of a latent process. To this purpose, a dynamic‐ordered probit model is developed to describe the directions taken by the ratings in the presence of multiple states. As an illustration, we study the migration of credit rating during periods before and after the financial crisis. (JEL C14, C41, G24)     

Robust Poisson likelihood estimation for frailty Cox models: A simulation study

Frailty models can be fit as mixed-effects Poisson models after transforming time-to-event data to the Poisson model framework. We assess, through simulations, the robustness of Poisson likelihood estimation for Cox proportional hazards models with log-normal frailties under misspecified frailty distribution. The log-gamma and Laplace distributions were used as true distributions for frailties on a natural log scale. Factors such as the magnitude of heterogeneity, censoring rate, number and sizes of groups were explored. In the simulations, the Poisson modeling approach that assumes log-normally distributed frailties provided accurate estimates of within- and between-group fixed effects even under a misspecified frailty distribution. Non-robust estimation of variance components was observed in the situations of substantial heterogeneity, large event rates, or high data dimensions.     

Smooth goodness of fit tests for the weibull distribution with singly censored data

The smooth goodness of fit tests are generalized to singly censored data and applied to the problem of testing Weibull (or extreme value) fit. Smooth tests, Pearson-type tests, and the spacings tests proposed by Mann, Schemer, and Fertig (1973) are compared on the basis of local asymptotic relative efficiency with respect to the asymptotic best test against generalized gamma alternatives, The smooth test of order one Is found to be most efficient for the generalized gamma alternatives.     

Truncated-exponential skew-symmetric distributions

The family of skew distributions introduced by Azzalini and extended by others has received widespread attention. However, it suffers from complicated inference procedures. In this paper, a new family of skew distributions that overcomes the difficulties is introduced. This new family belongs to the exponential family. Many properties of this family are studied, inference procedures developed and simulation studies performed to assess the procedures. Some particular cases of this family, evidence of its flexibility and a real data application are presented. At least 10 advantages of the new family over Azzalini's distributions are established.     

Saudization (Localization) – A critical review

Abstract

This paper introduces the concept of Saudization and critically reviews its existing and potential impacts and consequences. It identifies that Saudization has positively contributed to reducing the overall percentage of foreign labor. However, there have been some difficulties, such as a decline in competitiveness among regional business companies with respect to a business friendly environment, and reduced direct foreign investment, which influenced the reduction of the tax on foreign investors. Saudization should place importance on skill development among Saudi nationals by strengthening educational and vocational training, and providing time-specific incentives, rather than relying only on a quota system. Saudization should be implemented more through market forces and incentives. Collecting comprehensive information on the nature and magnitude of Saudi unemployment could be a first step in developing appropriate Saudization policies. This paper suggests appropriate coordination and consultation between the government, the private sector and the public at large, so that any policies on Saudization become more easily acceptable and executable in both the public and private sector.     

Les régimes de production des connaissances de la sélection animale. Ontologies,mesures, formes de régulation

This paper analyses the co-production of knowledge and socio-economic order in animal breeding. Is it possible to historicise analyses of the actor-network theory (ANT) and to show forms of pairing between knowledge production and sociopolitical order typical of a given historical period? Symmetrically, in an approach based on regimes of knowledge, how do we account for the differences that remain over a given period? Drawing on the differences in the exploitation of animal genetics in three production sectors (beef, pork, chicken), this paper analyses the diversity of the composition of the socio-(bio)technical methods of animal selection and the mechanisms for stabilising these methods. It also explains the relations with factors whose forms of existence do not depend only on local arrangements. In this way, one can move from local heterogeneous agencements to regimes of knowledge.     

Enterprise governance and value-based management: a theoretical contingency framework

In an attempt to provide a better understanding of the tension between conformance and performance in the governance context, this study develops a conceptual model for enterprise governance (EG) from the contingency theory perspective. The study argues that the value-based management (VBM) approach can achieve the objectives of EG, keeping the right balance between conformance and performance. Therefore, the study investigates the implications of fit between four contingency factors and VBM on organisational performance using corporate governance (CG) mechanisms and corporate entrepreneurship as mediating factors. The study contributes to the literature by linking a performance management system, i.e. VBM, to the EG framework aiming to bridge the gap between management accounting, CG, and entrepreneurship disciplines.     

Coalition Formation and Cost Allocation for Joint Replenishment Systems

This paper focuses on the issues of coalition formation and cost allocation in a joint replenishment system involving a set of independent and freely interacting retailers purchasing an item from one supplier to meet a deterministic demand. The papers dealing with this problem are mainly focused on supperadditive games, where the cost savings associated with a coalition increase with the number of players in the coalition. The most relevant question addressed then is how to allocate the savings to the players. In this paper, we propose to go further by dealing with a non‐supperadditive game, where a set of independent retailers have the common understanding to share the cost savings according to the cost‐based proportional rule. In this setting, the global cost optimization is no longer a relevant approach to identify appealing coalitions for any retailer. Here, we provide an iterative procedure to form the so‐called efficient coalition structure and we show that this coalition structure has the nice properties of being (i) weakly stable in the sense of the coalition structure core and (ii) strongly stable under a given assumption. An exact fractional programming based solution is also given to generate such efficient coalitions.     

The Intervening Role of Innovative Climate: A Study of Middle Managers in Manufacturing Organizations in Iran

Based on a developed model, this study deals with an investigation on whether innovative climate is a variable that moderates the relationship among middle managers' technological innovation and organizational factors such as structure, strategic posture, and environment. We used path analysis framework to study this relationship. The respondents (N=158, n=96) were all the managers of large or medium manufacturing companies with headquarters in the province of Tehran in Iran. The study found that innovative climate has an intervening role in the relationship among organizational structure, strategic posture and environment, and middle managers' technological innovation. The results have implications for the executive and human resource management practices.