Mixed estimation of old-age mortality

"Section 2 will first extend the method of mixed estimation to maximum likelihood estimation in general. Then, we will review generalized linear models with logistic and Poisson regressions as examples. In Section 3 we discuss different approaches for formulating the auxiliary information in practice. Section 4 first reviews the method of Coale and Kisker, provides empirical estimates for it, and then proceeds with the mixed estimation variant. In Section 5 we apply the methods to the estimation of mortality at ages 80+ in Finland in 1980-1993. We will first consider the evidence for mortality crossover between males and females....Then we will estimate life expectancies at age 100." (EXCERPT)     

Scenarios,uncertainty and conditional forecasts of the world population

This study is concerned with the methods available for the forecasting of future trends in the world's population. Particular attention is given to the problem of the uncertainties that these forecasts include. "The purpose of this paper is to show how subjective and data-based probabilistic assessments of error can be combined, to give a user a realistic assessment of the uncertainty of demographic forecasts, and to apply these concepts to forecasts of the world population. Moreover, we shall show how conditional forecasts can provide a simple conceptual framework in which to view scenarios. They can be particularly useful in the evaluation of proposed policies. Indeed, the so-called environmental impact assessments...that are now mandatory in many countries for major construction projects typically contain elements of conditional forecasting." The concepts discussed are illustrated by comparing a scenario of future global population growth prepared at the Institute of Applied Systems Analysis with a UN population projection.     

Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend in mortality

There are three approaches to analyzing and forecasting age‐specific mortality: (1) analyze age‐specific data directly, (2) analyze each cause‐specific mortality series separately and add the results, (3) analyze cause‐specific mortality series jointly and add the results. We show that if linear models are used for cause‐specific mortality, then the three approaches often give close results even when cause‐specific series are correlated. This result holds for cross‐correlations arising from random misclassification of deaths by cause, and also for certain patterns of systematic misclassification. It need not hold, if one or more causes serve as “leading indicators”; for the remaining causes, or if outside information is incorporated into forecasting either through expert judgment or formal statistical modeling. Under highly nonlinear models or in the presence of modeling error the result may also fail. The results are illustrated with U.S. age‐specific mortality data from 1968–1985. In some cases the aggregate forecasts appear to be the more credible ones.     

Competitive bidding — The probability of winning

A company bidding by sealed tender needs to know the relationship between their bid price and their chances of winning the contract. Previously published models for computing the probability of winning are examined and found to be inaccurate. The problem is reformulated, and a new general predictive model for computing the probability of winning is developed. The method of computation is illustrated by a simple worked example.     

Relating Changes in Life Expectancy to Changes in Mortality

I address the problem of what can be said of changes in mortality rates, if one knows how life expectancies change. I note a general formula relating life expectancies in different ages to mortality and prove that if mortality changes over time following a proportional-hazard model, then there is a one-to-one correspondence between life expectancy at birth and mortality rates. Extensions and an application of these results to the analysis of mortality change are presented.     

Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend in mortality

"There are three approaches to analyzing and forecasting age-specific mortality: (1) analyze age-specific data directly, (2) analyze each cause-specific mortality series separately and add the results, (3) analyze cause-specific mortality series jointly and add the results. We show that if linear models are used for cause-specific mortality, then the three approaches often give close results even when cause-specific series are correlated. This result holds for cross-correlations arising from random misclassification of deaths by cause, and also for certain patterns of systematic misclassification....The results are illustrated with U.S. age-specific mortality: (1) analyse age-specific mortality data from 1968-1985. In some cases the aggregate forecasts appear to be the more credible ones." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 407).     

Productivity of highly skilled immigrants: economists in the postwar period

Prior work finds declining immigrant quality in the postwar period that is linked to source-country and skill-composition changes associated with the 1965 Immigration Act. This paper uses a unique panel of foreign- and native-born American Economic Association members to show that the highly skilled experienced a similar shift away from European migrants toward those from Asia. However, the findings do not indicate that this change in source-country composition has been accompanied by a decline in quality; rather, the most recent cohorts of foreign-born economists appear to be more productive than their native counterparts.     

Rolling with the shakes: an insight into teenagers’ perceptions of recovery after the Canterbury earthquakes

Natural disasters are harmful worldwide events that inflict multiple psychosocial impacts on disaster-exposed individuals. A significant proportion of affected individuals are teenagers (13–18 years old) who, compared with adults, have been historically overlooked in disaster research. The literature is particularly sparse concerning teenagers’ recovery from natural disasters, specifically what recovery means to them and the contributing factors towards their positive recovery. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to gain deeper insight into this largely unexplored area by conducting five focus groups with teenagers (16–18 years) who experienced at least one of the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes since and including the initial September 2010 earthquake. This study directly asked teenagers about their recovery over the three years after the initial earthquakes, with data being analysed using thematic analysis. Two main themes were identified: (1) perceptions of recovery, with three sub-themes (i) knowledge and being less frightened, (ii) talking about the earthquakes and (iii) shift in perspectives; and (2) contributing factors to recovery, with three sub-themes (i) participation in the community response, (ii) returning to school and (iii) the rebuild of Christchurch. These factors provide insight into how we can better support the recovery process for disaster-exposed teenagers to reduce long-term distress.     

A common-features analysis of Amsterdam and London financial markets during the eighteenth century

We examine the financial linkage between the London and Amsterdam financial markets using stock prices recorded in each market over the period 1723-94 in conjunction with tests for common trends, cycles, and regime shifts. These tests reveal a surprising degree of integration between the markets as their prices move together in both the short and long run. Moreover, shocks to the assets translate quickly and accurately between markets. It also appears that Dutch investment did not destabilize London markets and stock prices in London were the primary determinant of prices in Amsterdam.