On a class exhibiting trend change in average failure rate

Abstract

Weak convergence and moment convergence issues are investigated for the New Better than Average Failure Rate (NBAFR) family (introduced by Loh (1984 Loh, W. Y. 1984. A new generalization of the class of NBU distributions. IEEE Transactions on Reliability R-33 :97–113[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar])). We explore the validity of these results in the context of a more general ageing class that we introduce. We prove some new properties of this class and derive its interrelationships with other non-monotonic ageing families. Reliability and moment bounds are obtained and an interesting characterization of exponentiality is proved. Special cases of our results lead to new theorems for the NBAFR class. Finally weak convergence and related issues are established for this class.     

Estimates of Spatial Prices in India and Their Sensitivity to Alternative Estimation Methods and Choice of Commodities

This paper provides Indian evidence on sub-national PPPs that point to considerable spatial price heterogeneity within the country, based on Indian National Sample Survey (NSS) data. The prices of various commodities have been generated from the household specific unit values obtained from the information on expenditures and quantities from the NSS unit records. This paper shows that the CPD model, proposed in the cross country context, can be adapted to the household context to estimate spatial prices in the intra country context. The proposed CPD based model is shown to be formally equivalent to certain well known fixed weight price indices under certain parametric configurations. The empirical contribution includes a systematic comparison between the spatial price indices from alternative models, namely the CPD and utility based models, and the result that the utility based methods point to a much greater extent of spatial price heterogeneity than is suggested by the CPD type models. The results also record the sensitivity of the spatial price indices to the choice of commodities in the utility based approach. The pairwise comparison of estimates suggests that commodity selection may be more important than model selection in its impact on the spatial price estimates, though the latter is important as well. The study provides estimates of rural–urban differentials in spatial price indices that suggest some interesting differences between the constituent states. The results make a strong case for further research on the topic of sub-national PPPs in the context of large heterogeneous countries.     

A joint model for longitudinal data profiles and associated event risks with application to a depression study

Summary.  In many longitudinal studies, a subject's response profile is closely associated with his or her risk of experiencing a related event. Examples of such event risks include recurrence of disease, relapse, drop-out and non-compliance. When evaluating the effect of a treatment, it is sometimes of interest to consider the joint process consisting of both the response and the risk of an associated event. Motivated by a prevention of depression study among patients with malignant melanoma, we examine a joint model that incorporates the risk of discontinuation into the analysis of serial depression measures. We present a maximum likelihood estimator for the mean response and event risk vectors. We test hypotheses about functions of mean depression and withdrawal risk profiles from our joint model, predict depression from updated patient histories, characterize associations between components of the joint process and estimate the probability that a patient's depression and risk of withdrawal exceed specified levels. We illustrate the application of our joint model by using the depression data.     

A Novel Asymmetric Distribution with Power Tails

In this article, we propose a four-parameter asymmetric doubly Pareto-uniform (DPU) distribution with support (?∞, ∞) whose density and cumulative distribution functions are constructed by seamlessly concatenating the left and right Pareto tails with a uniform central part. Properties of the distribution are described and a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) procedure for its parameters is obtained. Two illustrative examples of the MLE procedure are provided. The first example utilizes an i.i.d. sample of standardized log-differences of bi-monthly 30-year U.S. conventional mortgage interest rates (1971–2004). The second example deals with the height of 100 female Australian athletes.     

Nonparametric regression method for broad sense agreement

Characterising the correspondence between an ordinal measurement and a continuous measurement is often of interest in mental health studies. To this end Peng et al. [(2011), ‘A Framework for Assessing Broad Sense Agreement Between Ordinal and Continuous Measurements’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 106, 1592–1601] introduced the concept of broad sense agreement (BSA) and developed nonparametric estimation and inference for a BSA measure. In this work, we propose a nonparametric regression framework for BSA, which provides a robust tool to further investigate population heterogeneity in BSA. We develop inferential procedures including regression function estimation and hypothesis testing. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate satisfactory performance of the proposed method. We also apply the new method to a recent Grady Trauma Study and reveal an interesting impact of depression severity on the alignment between a self-reported symptom instrument and clinician diagnosis in posttraumatic stress disorder patients.     

Smooth Estimation of the Reliability Function

Problems with censored data arise quite frequently in reliability applications. Estimation of the reliability function is usually of concern. Reliability function estimators proposed by Kaplan and Meier (1958), Breslow (1972), are generally used when dealing with censored data. These estimators have the known properties of being asymptotically unbiased, uniformly strongly consistent, and weakly convergent to the same Gaussian process, when properly normalized. We study the properties of the smoothed Kaplan-Meier estimator with a suitable kernel function in this paper. The smooth estimator is compared with the Kaplan-Meier and Breslow estimators for large sample sizes giving an exact expression for an appropriately normalized difference of the mean square error (MSE) of the two estimators. This quantifies the deficiency of the Kaplan-Meier estimator in comparison to the smoothed version. We also obtain a non-asymptotic bound on an expected ₁-type error under weak conditions. Some simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the suggested method.     

Achievement and improvement in living standards—An empirical analysis

Kakwani (1993) proposed some postulates for an index of improvement in the level of living of a population and suggested a class of achievement (level) indices, which in turn generates a class of improvement (change) indices. Using data on 80 developing countries he compared the achievements and improvements in the standard of living across these countries. He also examined the statistical relationship between the achievement index and the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using a loglinear formulation. In this paper we explore a more general model, a limiting case of which is the Kakwani model, using the same data set. It turns out that the general model explains the achievement index better than the Kakwani model.     

Compensation for Occupational Risk and Valuation of Statistical Life

This paper uses information on a sample of 430 blue collar workers from different manufacturing industries of Ahmedabad, India to examine the influence of worker’s compensation on their wage and mortality rates. This relation has a direct impact on the value of statistical life (VSL) estimates which is used to evaluate various health and safety policies. The compensation benefit plays a significant role in worker’s compensation package however it has not received much attention in previous Indian studies. Inclusion of the compensation variable not only raises the co-efficient of risk variables but also increases the value of statistical life and value of statistical injury (VSI) estimates. The result of this study indicates that trade-off between worker’s wage and compensation benefit exists for the workers in the sample. The estimated VSL that captures the effect of compensation benefit ranges between INR 30.27 million ($0.46 million) and INR 72.11 million ($1.10 million) while the estimated VSI ranges between INR 1.94 million ($0.029 million) and INR 2.82 million ($0.043 million). Besides, this paper goes further to study the rate of substitution between worker’s compensation benefit and their wage and finds that the benefit levels are sub-optimal.

     

District-level poverty estimation: a proposed method

This paper develops a method of estimating micro-level poverty in cases where data are scarce. The method is applied to estimate district-level poverty using the household level Indian national sample survey data for two states, viz., West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. The method involves estimation of state-level poverty indices from the data formed by pooling data of all the districts (each time excluding one district) and multiplying this poverty vector with a known weight matrix to obtain the unknown district-level poverty vector. The proposed method is expected to yield reliable estimates at the district level, because the district-level estimate is now based on a much larger sample size obtained by pooling data of several districts. This method can be an alternative to the “small area estimation technique” for estimating poverty at sub-state levels in developing countries.     

Diagnostic Plots for Assessing the Frailty Distribution in Multivariate Survival Data

In biomedical studies, frailty models arecommonly used in analyzing multivariate survival data, wherethe objective of the study is to estimate both the covariateeffect and the dependence between the multivariate survival times.However, inference based on these models are dependent on thedistributional assumption of frailty. We propose a diagnosticplot for assessing the frailty assumption. The proposed methodis based on the cross-ratio function and the diagnostic plotsuggested by Oakes (1989). We use kernel regression smoothingwith bandwidth choice by cross-validation, to obtain the proposedplot. The resulting plot is capable of differentiating betweenthe gamma and positive stable frailty models when strong associationis present. We illustrate the feasibility of our method usingsimulation studies under known frailty distributions. The approachis applied to data on blindness for each eye of diabetic patientswith adult onset diabetes and a reasonable fit to the gamma frailtymodel is found.