From the Heart of the Middle East, the Energy of the Future: North Adriatic LNG Terminal

Petroleum is still our most important energy source and it will certainly remain that way for a long time to come. Moreover, an end of oil use is not foreseeable at the present. However, reserves are declining. Liquefied natural gas (LNG), on the other hand, is available in abundant quantities. Nevertheless, the use of LNG is useful to solve a significant problem: the LNG power stations produce much lower CO₂ emissions than petroleum. In fact, an 80% carbon dioxide reduction should be possible, as several companies are currently working on cleaner power stations, such as the LNG ones. Alternative energies are often not used enough as sources of energy. It is therefore all the more important that energy companies put a great deal of effort into supporting sustainable energy and developing cleaner technology, in order to make people less dependent on power from petroleum.      

(Sub) Optimality and (non) optimal satisficing in risky decision experiments

We implement a risky choice experiment based on one-dimensional choice variables and risk neutrality induced via binary lottery incentives. Each participant confronts many parameter constellations with varying optimal payoffs. We assess (sub)optimality, as well as (non)optimal satisficing by eliciting aspirations in addition to choices. Treatments differ in the probability that a binary random event, which are payoff—but not optimal choice—relevant is experimentally induced and whether participants choose portfolios directly or via satisficing, i.e., by forming aspirations and checking for satisficing before making their choice. By incentivizing aspiration formation, we can test satisficing, and in cases of satisficing, determine whether it is optimal.     

“I Am Becoming More and More Like My Eldest Brother!”: The Relationship Between Older Siblings,Adolescent Gambling Severity,and the Attenuating Role of Parents in a Large-Scale Nationally Representative Survey Study

The present study examined the association between having older siblings who gamble and adolescent at-risk/problem gambling and how parents (i.e., parental knowledge of their whereabouts) and peers might moderate such effects. Data were drawn from the ESPAD^®Italia2012 survey (European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs) comprising a nationally representative Italian sample of adolescents. The analysis was carried out on a subsample of 10,063 Italian students aged 15–19 years (average age = 17.10; 55 % girls) who had at least one older sibling and who had gambled at some point in their lives. Respondents’ problem gambling severity, older gambler sibling, gambler peers, parental knowledge, and socio-demographic characteristics were individually assessed. Multinomial logistic regression analyses including two- and three-way interactions were conducted. The odds of being an at-risk/problem gambler were higher among high school students with older siblings that gambled and those with peers who gambled. Higher parental knowledge (of who the adolescent was with and where they were in their leisure time) was associated with lower rates of at-risk/problem gambling. There was also an interaction between gamblers with older siblings and parental knowledge. The combination of having siblings who gambled and a greater level of parental knowledge was associated with lower levels of problem gambling. The present study confirmed the occurrence of social risk processes (older siblings and peers who gambled) and demonstrated that gambling among older siblings and peers represents an important contextual factor for increased at-risk/problem gambling. However, parental knowledge appears to be sufficient to counterbalance the influence of older siblings.     

Incorporating Prototyping and Iteration Into Intervention Development: A Case Study of a Dining Hall–Based Intervention

Abstract

Background: Previous research from the fields of computer science and engineering highlight the importance of an iterative design process (IDP) to create more creative and effective solutions. Objective: This study describes IDP as a new method for developing health behavior interventions and evaluates the effectiveness of a dining hall–based intervention developed using IDP on college students’ eating behavior and values. Participants: participants were 458 students (52.6% female, age = 19.6 ± 1.5 years [M ± SD]). Methods: The intervention was developed via an IDP parallel process. A cluster-randomized controlled study compared differences in eating behavior among students in 4 university dining halls (2 intervention, 2 control). Results: The final intervention was a multicomponent, point-of-selection marketing campaign. Students in the intervention dining halls consumed significantly less junk food and high-fat meat and increased their perceived importance of eating a healthful diet relative to the control group. Conclusion: IDP may be valuable for the development of behavior change interventions.     

Improved population-based probability of developing cancer when direct estimates of the cancer-free population are available

Age-conditional probabilities of developing a first cancer represent the transition from being cancer-free to developing a first cancer. Natural inputs into their calculation are rates of first cancer per person-years alive and cancer-free. However these rates are not readily available because they require information on the cancer-free population. Instead rates of first cancer per person-years alive, calculated using as denominator the mid-year populations, available from census data, can be easily calculated from cancer registry data. Methods have been developed to estimate age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer based on these easily available rates per person-years alive that do not directly account for the cancer-free population. In the last few years models (Merrill et al., Int J Epidemiol 29(2):197-207, 2000; Mariotto et al., SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 2002; Clegg et al., Biometrics 58(3):684-688, 2002; Gigli et al., Stat Methods Med Res 15(3):235-253, 2006, and software (ComPrev:Complete Prevalence Software, Version 1.0, 2005) have been developed that allow estimation of cancer prevalence (DevCan: Probability of Developing or Dying of Cancer Software, Version 6.0, 2005). Estimates of population-based cancer prevalence allows for the estimation of the cancer-free population and consequently of rates per person-years alive and cancer-free. In this paper we present a method that directly estimates the age-conditional probabilities of developing a first cancer using rates per person-years alive and cancer-free obtained from prevalence estimates. We explore conditions when the previous and the new estimators give similar or different values using real data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program.     

Is it all about human nature? Ethical challenges of converging technologies beyond a polarized debate

This article seeks a better understanding of the debate on the ethical challenges posed by converging technologies in the two versions offered by the United States (NBIC) and Europe (CTEKS) and plans to achieve three things. First, I want to show that the reduction of the ethical challenges posed by these technologies to the question of human nature, creating a polarization of positions, has generated a sort of impasse from which it is difficult to escape. This has already been partly referred to by other authors. Second, I want to show that the European conception of CTEKS proposes a different way of framing the ethical questions surrounding converging technologies. Third, I want to provide a reason why we should follow the route indicated by the European approach and move away from the questions around human nature, being at the same time aware that this approach is only in its initial phase.     

Turning bad into good: How resilience resources protect organizations from demanding work environments

An organization’s survival and its performance are often connected to employees’ well-being, which in intensive work conditions can be compromised by employee exhaustion. To date, the last economic crisis has forced several companies to downsize and leave the remaining employees facing higher job demands and vulnerability toward job exhaustion. The present study investigates whether resilience together with other personal resources can function as a psychological shield through a mediation and/or moderation process that mitigate the emergence of burnout. Based on a sample of employees from three different Italian companies (N?=?208), our results confirmed that “resilience resources” (i.e., resilience, self-efficacy, self-regulation) mediated the relationship between job demands, exhaustion, and task performance (i.e., energetic process). These results suggest that organizational environments characterized by challenging demands are likely to foster the development of resilience resources to cope with the emergence of potentially harming processes.     

Financial contagion through space-time point processes

Statistical Methods & Applications - We propose to study the dynamics of financial contagion by means of a class of point process models employed in the modeling of seismic contagion. The...     

A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF TURNOUT AND VOTING IN MULTIPLE ELECTIONS

This paper develops a unified approach to study participation and voting in multiple elections. The theoretical setting combines an uncertain‐voter model of turnout with a spatial model of voting behavior. We apply our framework to the study of turnout and voting in US Presidential and Congressional elections. We structurally estimate the model using individual‐level data for the 2000 elections, and quantify the relationships between observed individual characteristics and unobserved citizens’ ideological preferences, information, and civic duty. We then use the estimated model, which replicates the patterns of abstention, selective abstention, split‐ticket voting, and straight‐ticket voting observed in the data, to assess the effects of policies that may increase citizens’ information and sense of civic duty on their turnout and voting behavior.     

Behavioral patterns and reduction of sub-optimality: an experimental choice analysis

This paper attempts to identify behavioral patterns and compare their average success considering several criteria of bounded rationality. Experimentally observed choice behavior in various decision tasks is used to assess heterogeneity in how individual participants respond to 15 randomly ordered portfolio choices, each of which is experienced twice. Treatments differ in (not) granting probability information and in (not) eliciting aspirations. Since in our setting neither other regarding concerns nor risk attitude matter and probability of the binary chance move is (optimal) choice irrelevant, categorizing decision types relies on parameter dependence and choice adaptations. We find that most participants reduce systematically sub-optimality when following the identified criteria.