Optimal Dynamic Order Scheduling under Capacity Constraints Given Demand‐Forecast Evolution

We consider a manufacturer without any frozen periods in production schedules so that it can dynamically update the schedules as the demand forecast evolves over time until the realization of actual demand. The manufacturer has a fixed production capacity in each production period, which impacts the time to start production as well as the production schedules. We develop a dynamic optimization model to analyze the optimal production schedules under capacity constraint and demand‐forecast updating. To model the evolution of demand forecasts, we use both additive and multiplicative versions of the martingale model of forecast evolution. We first derive expressions for the optimal base stock levels for a single‐product model. We find that manufacturers located near their market bases can realize most of their potential profits (i.e., profit made when the capacity is unlimited) by building a very limited amount of capacity. For moderate demand uncertainty, we also show that it is almost impossible for manufacturers to compensate for the increase in supply–demand mismatches resulting from long delivery lead times by increasing capacity, making lead‐time reduction a better alternative than capacity expansion. We then extend the model to a multi‐product case and derive expressions for the optimal production quantities for each product given a shared capacity constraint. Using a two‐product model, we show that the manufacturer should utilize its capacity more in earlier periods when the demand for both products is more positively correlated.     

Solving the Labour Problem Among Professional Workers in the UK Public Sector: Organisation Change and Performance Management

This paper draws together evidence from across the UK public services to present an analysis of public sector organisational change that has been observed and experienced since the 1980s. The argument is that the pattern of persistent change, packaged as a myriad of reform measures, has been centrally concerned with solving the labour problem—low worker productivity and managers not being able to manage—in what are labour intensive services. The now familiar managerial discourse of empowerment and high commitment working practices is highlighted and express linkages are drawn between such themes and the day-to-day practices of performance and human resource management, seen here to be key levers in solving the same labour problem through a reduction in the quality of working lives of many public service workers.     

Effects of repeated multi-source feedback on the influence behavior and effectiveness of managers: A field experiment

Despite the widespread use of multi-source behavioral feedback as a method of leadership development, little research has been conducted to identify facilitating conditions that can make the feedback more effective. This article reports results from a longitudinal field experiment on the effects of providing feedback about influence behavior to middle managers in the corporate office of a supermarket chain. Managers who only attended a single feedback workshop were compared to managers who attended a second feedback workshop several months after the initial one. A significant increase in the use of “core” influence tactics with subordinates and peers was found only for the managers who received repeated feedback, and they were also rated higher in overall effectiveness by their bosses. Practical implications for leadership development and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Bewusster Umgang mit Übertragungsphänomenen als Management Soft Skill

The author presents the psychological concept of transference and it’s relevance for daily management life in companies. This aspect can above all be found in hierarchical working relationships were the transference of unsolved and repressed conflicts of collaborators coming from their personal biography appear rather frequently. But also the dynamics within teams may be influenced by transference phenomena. Explanation is given how these transference-based conflicts can develop counterproductive dynamics. Based on three case examples the author illustrates these dynamics. He finally comes to the conclusion that the knowledge of the transference phenomena and how to deal with them consciously is an important management soft skill that improves manager’s and leader’s efficiency.     

Item‐Level RFID in the Retail Supply Chain

Analyzing the proliferation of item‐level RFID, recent studies have identified the cost sharing of the technology as a gating issue. Various qualitative studies have predicted that conflict will arise, in particular in decentralized supply chains, from the fact that the benefits and the costs resulting from item‐level RFID are not symmetrically distributed among supply chain partners. To contribute to a better understanding of this situation, we consider a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer. Within the context of this retail supply chain, we present analytic models of the benefits of item‐level RFID to both supply chain partners. We examine both the case of a dominant manufacturer as well as the case of a dominant retailer, and we analyze the results of an introduction of item‐level RFID to such a supply chain depending on these market power characteristics. Under each scenario, we show how the cost of item‐level RFID should be allocated among supply chain partners such that supply chain profit is optimized.     

A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection

For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.     

THE EFFECTS OF RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION AND DISPENSING ON OPIOID MORTALITY

This study documents how the changing legal status of marijuana has impacted mortality in the United States over the past two decades. We use a difference-in-difference approach to estimate the effect of medical marijuana laws (MML) and recreational marijuana laws (RML) on fatalities from opioid overdoses, and we find that marijuana access induces sharp reductions in opioid mortality rates. Our research corroborates prior findings on MMLs and offers the first causal estimates of RML impacts on opioid mortality to date, the latter of which is particularly important given that RMLs are far more expansive in scope and reach than MMLs. In our preferred econometric specification, we estimate that RMLs reduce annual opioid mortality in the range of 20%–35%, with particularly pronounced effects for synthetic opioids. In further analysis, we demonstrate how RML impacts vary among demographic groups, shedding light on the distributional consequences of these laws. Our findings are especially important and timely given the scale of the opioid crisis in the United States and simultaneously evolving attitudes and regulations on marijuana use. (JEL I18, K32, H75)     

Confidence Intervals for Intraclass Correlation in Inter-Rater Reliability

Abstract Calculation of a confidence interval for intraclass correlation to assess inter‐rater reliability is problematic when the number of raters is small and the rater effect is not negligible. Intervals produced by existing methods are uninformative: the lower bound is often close to zero, even in cases where the reliability is good and the sample size is large. In this paper, we show that this problem is unavoidable without extra assumptions and we propose two new approaches. The first approach assumes that the raters are sufficiently trained and is related to a sensitivity analysis. The second approach is based on a model with fixed rater effect. Using either approach, we obtain conservative and informative confidence intervals even from samples with only two raters. We illustrate our point with data on the development of neuromotor functions in children and adolescents.