Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

Estimating household structure in ancient China by using historical data: a latent class analysis of partially missing patterns

Summary.  Social data often contain missing information. The problem is inevitably severe when analysing historical data. Conventionally, researchers analyse complete records only. Listwise deletion not only reduces the effective sample size but also may result in biased estimation, depending on the missingness mechanism. We analyse household types by using population registers from ancient China (618–907 AD) by comparing a simple classification, a latent class model of the complete data and a latent class model of the complete and partially missing data assuming four types of ignorable and non-ignorable missingness mechanisms. The findings show that either a frequency classification or a latent class analysis using the complete records only yielded biased estimates and incorrect conclusions in the presence of partially missing data of a non-ignorable mechanism. Although simply assuming ignorable or non-ignorable missing data produced consistently similarly higher estimates of the proportion of complex households, a specification of the relationship between the latent variable and the degree of missingness by a row effect uniform association model helped to capture the missingness mechanism better and improved the model fit.     

Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances

We study the properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) and related test statistics in dynamic models that jointly parameterize conditional means and conditional covariances, when a normal log-likelihood os maximized but the assumption of normality is violated. Because the score of the normal log-likelihood has the martingale difference property when the forst two conditional moments are correctly specified, the QMLE is generally Consistent and has a limiting normal destribution. We provide easily computable formulas for asymptotic standard errors that are valid under nonnormality. Further, we show how robust LM tests for the adequacy of the jointly parameterized mean and variance can be computed from simple auxiliary regressions. An appealing feature of these robyst inference procedures is that only first derivatives of the conditional mean and variance functions are needed. A monte Carlo study indicates that the asymptotic results carry over to finite samples. Estimation of several AR and AR-GARCH time series models reveals that in most sotuations the robust test statistics compare favorably to the two standard (nonrobust) formulations of the Wald and IM tests. Also, for the GARCH models and the sample sizes analyzed here, the bias in the QMLE appears to be relatively small. An empirical application to stock return volatility illustrates the potential imprtance of computing robust statistics in practice.     

铝基化学镀镍的研究

研究了铝基化学镀镍的工艺过程，详细介绍了化学镀镍前的处理过程，其中包括除油，浸蚀，清洗和没锌过程。研究了各因素对化学镀镍镀速的影响因素，并得出最佳配方及工艺条件。在最佳条件下，化学镀镍镀速高，镀层着附力优异，可焊性优良。     

液相色谱串联质谱检测鳗鱼中四种氟喹诺酮残留

建立了液相色谱/串联质谱法测定鳗鱼中恩诺沙星,环丙沙星,诺氟沙星,氧氟沙星的方法。对分离和检测这四种兽药残留的液相色谱条件、质谱条件、样品前处理方法等作了详细的研究。用乙腈萃取样品中的残留物,在氮气保护下将萃取液浓缩干,加流动相1.0mL溶解残渣,正己烷液液萃取,弃上层液,下层溶液用作液相色谱分析荧光检测或质谱检测。在鳗鱼样品中添加四种残留物,添加浓度分别为0.01,0.050和0.100mg/kg,平均回收率(n=6)在70￣84.3%之间,相对标准偏差为3.0%～6.3%。     

Rural/Urban Differences in Child Growth and Survival in Bolivia

Abstract Using data from a national survey in Bolivia and from a regional sample of poor communities in two regions of Bolivia, we model the effects of community conditions, household characteristics, and social relations on child health as measured by child mortality and stunted growth. Based on national data, children in rural areas are twice as likely to die before the age of two than are children in large cities, and about one‐third of the children in rural areas are stunted. Including measures of community, household, and maternal characteristics accounts for at least two‐thirds of the urban/rural difference in child health. We conclude that expansion of health services, improvements in household and community sanitation, and socioeco‐nomic development are all needed to overcome the rural disadvantage in child health.     

"城中村"城市化的对策研究

随着城市化速度的加快 ,因城市的扩张产生的“城中村”所造成的社会问题日益突出。本文对“城中村”改造过程中遇到的政策和现实问题进行了剖析 ,认为“城中村”改造的主要困难是社会经济政策滞后问题 ,提出了超前调整政策 ,促进“城中村”改造的思路和对策     

国内设计行业如何面对加入WTO后的挑战

中国加入世界贸易组织 (WTO) ,对于我国工程设计行业将产生深刻的影响。工程勘察设计咨询业隶属于服务贸易领域 ,所有成员国都必须接受《服务贸易总协定》(GATS)规定。加入WTO后 ,国外建筑事务所会大量涌入 ,将依靠其先进的技术和管理、优厚的融资能力冲击我们的工程的咨询设计市场。为了能在激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地 ,分析了解国外事务所的经营管理模式 ,分析国内外工程设计行业的差距 ,研究对策 ,做好准备是当务之急     

扩展基础加筋风积砂地基抗拔承载力模型试验与计算

通过扩展基础加筋风积砂地基的室内模型上拔试验 ,研究了不同试验方案的加筋土体在极限上拔承载力 ,并提出了加筋风积砂土体的上拔承载力的理论计算公式