A note on the Condorcet jury theorem for couples

A jury and two valid options are given. Each agent of the jury picks exactly one of these options. The option with the most votes will be chosen by the jury. In the N-couple model of Althöfer and Thiele (Theory and Decision 81:1–15, 2016), the jury consisted of 2N agents. These agents form N independent couples, with dependencies within the couples. The authors assumed that the agents who form a couple have the same competence level. In this note, we relax this assumption by allowing different competence levels within the couples. We show that the theoretical results of Althöfer and Thiele remain valid under this relaxation.     

Seasonal forcing on the dynamics ofClethrionomys rufocanus: Modeling geographic gradients in population dynamics

We interpret gradients in population dynamics of the gray-sided vole from the southwestern part of the island of Hokkaido to its northeastern part within the framework of a phenomenological model involving the relative length of summer and winter. In Hokkaido, as in other northern regions, both spring and fall is considered as short transition periods between the two main seasons — summer (the primary breeding season) and winter (the non-reproductive or secondary breeding season). We show that the geographic transition in dynamics may be understood as the combined consequence of different patterns of density-dependence during summer and winter, and geographically varying season lengths. Differences are shown to exist between summer and winter with respect to strength of density-dependence. Direct density-dependence, in particular, is stronger during winter than during summer. A model is presented to show how relative lengths of seasons can induce both stable and periodically fluctuating population dynamics. The results are compared and contrasted with what is otherwise known about the gradient in rodent dynamics in Fennoscandia.     

Efficient estimation for incomplete multivariate data

We review the Fisher scoring and EM algorithms for incomplete multivariate data from an estimating function point of view, and examine the corresponding quasi-score functions under second-moment assumptions. A bias-corrected REML-type estimator for the covariance matrix is derived, and the Fisher, Godambe and empirical sandwich information matrices are compared. We make a numerical investigation of the two algorithms, and compare with a hybrid algorithm, where Fisher scoring is used for the mean vector and the EM algorithm for the covariance matrix.     

Social interaction targets enhance 13-month-old infants' associative learning

Infants are attentive to third-party interactions, but the underlying mechanisms of this preference remain understudied. This study examined whether 13-month-old infants (N = 32) selectively learn cue–target associations guiding them to videos depicting a social interaction scene. In a visual learning task, two geometrical shapes were repeatedly paired with two kinds of target videos: two adults interacting with one another (social interaction) or the same adults acting individually (non-interactive control). Infants performed faster saccadic latencies and more predictive gaze shifts toward the cued target region during social interaction trials. These findings suggest that social interaction targets can serve as primary reinforcers in an associative learning task, supporting the view that infants find it intrinsically valuable to observe others’ interactions.     

The population dynamics of the voleClethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan

Population dynamics of the gray sided-vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus, in Hokkaido, Japan were described on the basis of 225 time series (being from 12 to 31 years long); 194 of the time series have a length of 23 years or longer. The time series were classified into 11 groups according to geographic proximity and topographic characteristics of the island of Hokkaido. Mean abundance varied among populations from 1.07 to 21.07 individuals per 150 trap-nights. The index of variability for population fluctuation (s-index) ranged from 0.204 to 0.629. Another index for population variability (amplitude on log-10 scale) ranged from 0.811 to 2.743. Mean abundance and variability of populations were higher in the more northern and eastern regions of the island. Most populations, except for the southernmost populations, exhibited significant direct density-dependence in population growth. Detection rate for delayed density-dependence varied among groups from 0% to 22.6%. Both direct and delayed density-dependence tended to be stronger in the more northern and eastern populations. The proportion of cyclic populations was higher in the northern-eastern areas than that in the southern-western areas. There was a clear gradient from the asynchronous populations in southwest, to the highly synchronized populations in the northeast.     

Leading for change: line managers’ influence on the outcomes of an occupational health intervention

Line managers may play a central role in the success of occupational health interventions. However, few studies have focussed on the relationship between line managers’ behaviours and the outcomes of occupational health interventions. We examined the influence of both line managers’ attitudes and actions towards an intervention as well as their transformational leadership on the expected outcomes of the intervention (i.e. employee self-rated health and work ability). The intervention consisted of the implementation and use of a web-based system for occupational health management. A sample of 180 employees provided data for the analysis. Self-rated health and work ability were measured at the baseline (Time 1) and follow-up (Time 3), while employee ratings of line managers’ attitudes and actions, and transformational leadership were measured during the intervention process (Time 2). The results revealed that line managers’ attitudes and actions positively predicted changes in both self-rated health and work ability. The influence of transformational leadership was indirect and mediated through line managers’ attitudes and actions towards the intervention. Based on the results, we suggest using process measures that include aspects of both line managers’ attitudes and actions as well as their transformational leadership in future process evaluation.