排序方式: 共有75条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Christiane Baumeister James D. Hamilton 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2015,83(5):1963-1999
This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (i) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (VARs) that can be used for models that are overidentified, just‐identified, or underidentified. (ii) We analyze the asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference and show that in the underidentified case, the asymptotic posterior distribution of contemporaneous coefficients in an n‐variable VAR is confined to the set of values that orthogonalize the population variance–covariance matrix of ordinary least squares residuals, with the height of the posterior proportional to the height of the prior at any point within that set. For example, in a bivariate VAR for supply and demand identified solely by sign restrictions, if the population correlation between the VAR residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is coming exclusively from the prior distribution. (iii) We provide analytical characterizations of the informative prior distributions for impulse‐response functions that are implicit in the traditional sign‐restriction approach to VARs, and we note, as a special case of result (ii), that the influence of these priors does not vanish asymptotically. (iv) We illustrate how Bayesian inference with informative priors can be both a strict generalization and an unambiguous improvement over frequentist inference in just‐identified models. (v) We propose that researchers need to explicitly acknowledge and defend the role of prior beliefs in influencing structural conclusions and we illustrate how this could be done using a simple model of the U.S. labor market. 相似文献
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Compared to Internet and mobile communications, computer and video games are little used for psychotherapy, (psychosocial) counseling or coaching. This also applies to Serious Games, i.?e. interactive computer games that train cognitive or behavioral skills in a digital learning environment. Avatar-based coaching can be relevant for the coaching practice which includes design features and functional principles of Serious Games and whose example can be used to derive usage potential and risks for both coachs and clients. 相似文献
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Internal labour migration from rural areas to urban centres has been and remains one of the dominant patterns of migration in South Africa. Based on data from ethnographic field research, this paper explores the mobility patterns and translocal relations of miners in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. By considering the tension between mobility and locality in a historical and political perspective, the concept of translocality helps to explain why miners try to expand their action space and, at the same time, why they are embedded in certain places. Thus, a translocal perspective enhances the interpretation of the spatio-temporal transformations in South Africa’s mining communities and beyond, as it sheds light on the agency of mine workers, superseding merely structuralist explanations. 相似文献
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Ladouceur R Boutin C Doucet C Dumont M Provencher M Giroux I Boucher C 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2004,20(2):181-185
This paper describes and evaluates “As luck would have it,” an awareness program completed by retailers in Quebec Province. This program, which is presented as a two-hour awareness promotion workshop, aimed to inform retailers about excessive gambling. More specifically, it provided answers to the following questions: (1) What is chance and randomness? (2) Is there a link between misunderstanding the concept of chance and excessive gambling? (3) How does one recognise the symptoms of this disorder? (4) How should retailers intervene if they decide to do so? Results showed that retailers developed a better understanding of problem gambling, could recognise its main symptoms, felt more capable of coping with excessive gamblers, and of choosing the most appropriate moment to do so. In the follow-up phase, retailers who had attended the workshop reported that they approached a problem gambler significantly more often than the retailers who had not attended the workshop, and had discussed how to help problem gamblers significantly more often. The practical implications of these results are briefly discussed. 相似文献
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Whole-genome sequences are now available, and methods have evolved for targeting, in parallel, each gene in a genome, offering for the first time the opportunity to study the entire dynamic network of genes involved in aging. At a recent conference in Hersonissos, Crete, around 200 internationally renowned experts gathered to discuss techniques and emerging results as the science of aging undergoes a shift toward systems biology. 相似文献
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Bettina Girgensohn-Marchand Christiane Borchard 《Gruppendynamik und Organisationsberatung》2000,31(2):225-246
The first author has been running a ?TZI and self-experience“ workshop for eight years. Participants were undergraduates following educational studies with a family and leisure education bias. The authors try to systematically evaluate this course and to discover structures. A relatively standardized framework with a set content proved to be successful. Added to it are personally relevant topics based on biographical and current experience, questions evolving from the ongoing interaction in the group and work with individual persons in front of the group. How to handle the theme is discussed. Typical and particular difficulties and how to cope with them are presented. 相似文献
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The Multiple-Try Metropolis is a recent extension of the Metropolis algorithm in which the next state of the chain is selected
among a set of proposals. We propose a modification of the Multiple-Try Metropolis algorithm which allows for the use of correlated
proposals, particularly antithetic and stratified proposals. The method is particularly useful for random walk Metropolis
in high dimensional spaces and can be used easily when the proposal distribution is Gaussian. We explore the use of quasi
Monte Carlo (QMC) methods to generate highly stratified samples. A series of examples is presented to evaluate the potential
of the method. 相似文献
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Christiane Timmerman Els Vanderwaeren Maurice Crul 《The International migration review》2003,37(4):1065-1090
A growing proportion of second‐generation Moroccan and Turkish youngsters in Belgium are moving on to higher secondary education and beyond. This trend is greater among Moroccan youngsters than among their Turkish peers. Turkish girls in particular are still married off at a young age, which inevitably affects their educational opportunities. Despite higher participation rates for youngsters from immigrant backgrounds, the educational gap with Belgian pupils and students remains wide. This is largely attributable to differences in socioeconomic background. It appears that the concentration of second‐generation immigrant pupils in certain schools is also a major explanatory factor. Despite their increased participation in education, second‐generation immigrants are still not well represented in the labor market and they are, moreover, employed mostly in less favorable segments of that market. An interesting development among second‐generation immigrants is the polarization that is taking place in relation to the significance of Islam. A growing number of second‐generation youngsters are opting for a more secular way of life, while an increasingly large group is choosing Islamist ideologies or at least a more conscious form of Islam. For young people of the second generation, who often have little to hold on to socially, Islamism can provide a transparent, supportive, and all‐embracing frame of reference. 相似文献
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Christiane Pott Tobias Tebben Christoph Watrin 《Journal of Management and Governance》2014,18(2):505-540
This paper investigates the impact of outside directors’ and auditors’ monetary incentives on the association between discretionary accounting and managers’ cash bonuses in a two-tier system. For a sample of German stock corporations from 2005 to 2007 we expect and find that outside directors who receive compensation based on accounting income and auditors who receive high non-audit fees have the incentive to tolerate managers’ bonus-increasing accounting choices. More specifically, we show that positive discretionary accruals are more strongly associated with managers’ cash bonuses than negative discretionary accruals if outside directors receive accounting-based compensation and/or if auditors receive high non-audit fees. Our results suggest that executives’ ability to manage their cash bonuses depends on the monitoring institutions’ monetary incentives. 相似文献