Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

The birds and the bees: interactive graphics and problem solving in the teaching of statistics

Software which allows interactive exploration of graphical displays is widely available. In addition there now exist sophisticated authoring tools which allow more general textual and graphical material to be presented in computer-based form. The role of an authoring tool in providing a graphical interface to a strategy for solving simple statistical problems in the context of teaching is discussed. This interface allows a variety of resources to be integrated. Specific examples, including the use of dynamic graphical displays in exploring data and in communicating the meaning of a model, are proposed. These ideas are illustrated by a problem involving the identification of the sex of a herring gull.     

The use of a model in long term planning—A case history

Long term planning in companies can range from the partial simplistic approach to a structured time-consuming ritual. Either extreme can bring planning into disrepute, and both reflect the lack of the proper tools of the trade. Models, by themselves, are no panacea, but properly conceived, constructed, and developed they can transform the planning process. The key to effective and practical models is use, and this can be achieved through direct management involvement on the model's development, and by making sure the model is basically simple and flexible. This article describes how such a model was constructed using a modular approach, and how it was used effectively in long term planning.     

How the Resource-based and the Dynamic Capability Views of the Firm Inform Corporate-level Strategy

This paper explains that the resource‐based view essentially addresses issues of competitive strategy, but by integrating some arguments from its evolutionary version, the dynamic capability view, it can be extended to inform our understanding of corporate‐level strategy. We concentrate on the issue of value creation from corporate centres and ask how the centre can possess or provide resources. The primary dynamic capabilities identified by Teece, Pisano and Shuen (1997) are elaborated into six distinct modes of resource creation. Each mode is considered in relation to a set of organizational design parameters. We then propose resource‐creating configurations that are congruent with respect to the modes and the required states of the design parameters. We point out areas of tension that are likely to arise if corporations try to combine different modes of resource creation. We conclude that corporate centres may possess resources but must display dynamic capabilities otherwise they will destroy shareholder value.     

Sums of powers of binomial coefficients

An asymptotic series for sums of powers of binomial coefficients is derived, the general term being defined and usable with a computer symbolic language. Sums of squares of coefficients in the symmetric case are shown to have a link with classical moment problems, but this property breaks down for cubes and higher powers. Problems of remainders for the asymptotic series are mentioned. Using the reflection formula for I'(.), a continuous form for a binomial function is set up, and this becomes oscillatory outstde the usual range. A new contmued fraction emerges for the logarithm of an adjusted sum of binomial squares. The note is a contribution to the problem of the interpretation of asymptotic series and processes for their convergence acceleration.     

‘Surrounded with so much uncertainty’: asylum seekers and manufactured precarity in Australia

In Australia, nearly 30,000 asylum seekers have the legal right to work, but their temporary and conditional migration status exposes them to work-related precarity. This article draws on a small qualitative study that examined asylum seekers’ experiences of seeking work and achieving economic security. Over an 18-month period, 29 semi-structured interviews with asylum seekers who had work rights in Australia were conducted. It provides insights into how restrictive immigration policies manufacture precarity through short-term, conditional visas, resulting in employer risk aversion, segmentation into insecure work, and in-work instability and mistreatment. Asylum seekers manage their experiences and feelings of pervasive insecurity through individual coping and survival strategies.     

An Evaluation of Staff Preference for Graphic Characteristics

The purpose of the current study was to assess staff preference for how data were displayed on graphs. Specifically, preference for line versus bar graphs was assessed, as well as preference for data displayed as one date in time versus multiple dates showing performance trends. A secondary purpose of the study was to assess staff comprehension of the data presented across different graphic displays. Participants included 60 entry-level direct care staff and 25 seasoned therapists. Therapists had more advanced training in applied behavior analysis than the direct care staff. The vast majority of direct care staff preferred data depicted as a bar graph versus data depicted as a line graph, even preferring a single bar graph over a time-series line graph. The therapists preferred time-series line graphs to bar graphs. Most staff demonstrated understanding of the data, regardless of how it was depicted.     

Farmer participation in voluntary land diversion schemes: Some predictions from a survey

National and European agricultural policy schemes are now coming forward which rely on land diversion to achieve a variety of supply control, social and environmental policy goals. Operating on a voluntary basis, these will depend for their success on sufficient numbers of farmers agreeing to enrol land in sufficient quantities and in the right localities. Participation is thus a crucial variable in any assessment of land diversion policies. This paper draws on the results of a farm survey to make some predictions about the level and pattern of uptake of a range of such schemes, identifying the characteristics of resistors and adopters and exploring the motives of participants. It is concluded that land diversion will have most appeal to well-placed farmers who are able to justify the diversion of land out of an agricultural use in terms of forestry and conservation plans which have already been laid. The implication is that voluntary schemes may not be especially powerful instruments for bringing about land use changes on the large number of holdings in the U.K. which presently lack any history of conservation or forestry management, at least not without accompanying reductions in the level of market support for agriculture.     

The reliance on recognition and majority vote heuristics over privacy concerns when selecting smartphone apps among German and US consumers

The smartphone app market is a prime example of a digital market where consumers are tasked with selecting one option among a plethora of alternatives, at times indistinguishable from one another. Building upon findings on information processing and decision-making, we postulate that consumers follow simple (rather than complex) heuristic rules to navigate the app market. In particular, we focus on two such strategies: the recognition heuristic and the majority vote heuristic. App privacy information was also considered as a potentially salient cue in the decision-making process, given the personal data stored on smartphones. Results of a mixed-method design (behavioral analysis and think-aloud protocols) study with German (N?=?18) and US (N?=?25) students find a dominance of the recognition heuristic. Decisions are further supported by majority vote heuristics. Privacy information is largely disregarded, particularly by US participants. Implications for app market design and engagement are discussed.     

Land-use and environmental pressures resulting from current and future bioenergy crop expansion: A review

Recent energy and climate policies, particularly in the developed world, have increased demand for bioenergy² as an alternative, which has led to both direct and indirect land-use changes and an array of environmental and socio-economic concerns. A comprehensive understanding of the land-use dynamics of bioenergy crop production is essential for the development of sustainable bioenergy and land-use policies. In this paper, we review the patterns and dynamics of land-use change associated with bioenergy crops (hereafter referred to as ’bioenergy-driven land-use change’). The review focuses on four regions as the most prominent locations in which these patterns and changes occur: Brazil; Indonesia and Malaysia; the United States of America (U.S.A.); and the European Union (EU). The review confirms that bioenergy-driven land-use change has affected and will impact most severely on the ’land- and resource-abundant’ developing regions, such as Brazil, where economic development takes priority over sustainable land-use policies, and the enforcement capability is limited. Opportunities for more effective policy are available through the development of international climate change policy (e.g. REDD under the UNFCCC), and certification criteria for sustainable bioenergy products (e.g. EU RED). However, bioenergy produced from no and/or less land-using feedstocks (e.g. wastes and residues), and their associated technologies must be given higher priority to minimise bioenergy-driven land-use change and its negative impacts.