The Young and the Realigning: A Test of the Socialization Theory of Realignment

Recent research has demonstrated that Democrats and Republicansare divided along religious lines–98) confirm that thelink between religiosity and Republican Party identificationis stronger among younger than older voters.     

ONE THAT MADE A DIFFERENCE: COGNITIVE CONSISTENCY, POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE, AND THE 1980 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Despite high expectations, students of the 1960 and 1976 presidentialdebates were unable to find much evidence that these eventssignificantly affected voters' candidate preferences. As a result,scholars have turned increasingly to cognitive consistency theoriesto explain viewers' reactions (Or nonreactions) to debates.This article argues that one key mediating variable determiningwhether or not voters are influenced by debates is their levelof political knowledge. Looking at the largely ignored 1980Carter-Reagan debate, we find that voters with generally lowlevels of knowledge are particularly affected by the debate,and significant shifts in candidate preferences do occur amongthis group. The evidence suggests that the debate was an importantfactor in Ronald Reagan's bid to unseat his Democratic opponent.     

THE EFFECTS OF PRESTIGE NAMES IN QUESTION WORDING

Although survey researchers are often warned against using prestigenames in questions (e.g., identifying Contra aid as "PresidentReagan's policy"), prestige names are still commonly used. Tolearn more about the effects of using prestige names, we analyzetwo sets of experiments—on judicial confirmation electionsand on an initiative on tax indexing. The results indicate thatprestige names do more than shift responses in one direction—they eliminate the effect of education on DKs and provide moreof a political basis for the responses.     

DO RESPONDENTS REALLY "MARK ALL THAT APPLY" ON SELF-ADMINISTERED QUESTIONS?

An experiment was conducted to assess the effect of using "markall that apply" question instructions on survey reporting aspart of the field test for the Second Follow-up of the NationalEducation Longitudinal Study of 1988 Eighth Graders (NELS:88).Mark-all-that-apply instructions were compared with instructionsasking respondents to indicate "yes" or "no" to each responseoption on responses to three items dispersed throughout thequestionnaire and consisting of different topics and numbersof response options. For the three items, significantly fewerresponse options were selected with the mark-all-that-applyinstructions than with the yes/no instructions, but becauseexternal validity criteria were not available, overreportingto the yes/no instructions cannot be ruled out. Instructiondependentprimacy effects, predicted under the hypothesis that respondentswould engage in more superficial processing when given the mark-all-that-applyinstructions, were not found.     

The "Positivity Bias" inEvaluations of Public Figures:Evidence Against Instrument Artifacts

The "positivity bias" is a term used to describe the consistentfavorable evaluation of public figures found in surveys overthe past 40 years. This paper explored several possible artifactualexplanations for this bias,focusing on the survey instrumentitself. Two experiments varied the labeling and ordering ofscale endpoints, the affective value of the initial contextevaluated, and the presence or absence of a prestigious jobtitle associated with the nameof the public figure. None ofthe variations produced significantly different levels of positivitythan the standard control condition used in each experiment.RichardR. Lau is a graduate student in social psychology at the Universityof California, Los Angeles. David O. Sears is Professor of Psychologyand Political Science at UCLA. Richard Centers is Professorof Psychology at UCLA. This research was supported in part byGrant #SOC73-09153 A03 from the National Science Foundationto David O. Sears. The authors wish to expess their thanks toMark Williams, who did most of the coding and checking involvedin the survey.     

‘Equally at home on Beacon Hill and Hill 16’? Transnational identities among Irish‐born return migrants from the United States

In this article, I examine the transnational identities that return migrants create upon resettlement in their country of origin. Specifically, I draw on interviews with Republic of Ireland‐born return migrants from the United States between the years 1996 and 2006. The analysis shows that return migrants – like other migrant groups – maintain and establish translocal identities and practices that straddle ‘here’ (Ireland) and ‘there’ (United States) upon return. However, the article goes further, asking why returnees develop such border‐spanning social fields. Some recent scholarship suggests that some migrants develop transnational identities as an adaptive response to a hostile receiving society. The analysis here shows a similar process at play for certain return migrants in the post‐return environment. Doubtless, for some returnees, a transnational identity is a natural outgrowth of having spent several years in the United States. Yet for others, one can better explain this transnational identity as a coping strategy to buffer resettlement anxieties and disappointments.     

INFORMATION,INSTITUTIONS, AND BANKING SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN WEST AFRICA

Using a new West African panel data set, we provide evidence on the determinants of individual banks' loans and assets in some of the poorest countries in the world. Higher loan default rates reduce both the loans to assets ratio and the volume of assets. However, the size of these effects is sensitive to bank age and ownership structure. Younger, private, domestically owned banks are most affected, suggesting that such banks face the most severe informational disadvantages. Very old government‐owned banks benefit from high default rates. We also explore how the quality of governance impacts on loans and assets. (JEL G21, O16)     

GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION TO PREVENT BANKRUPTCY: THE EFFECT OF BLIND‐BIDDING LAWS ON MOVIE THEATERS

In the 1970s motion picture studios increased their use of blind bidding and nonrefundable guarantees in an attempt to reduce the risks associated with producing a small number of large budget films. However, theater owners claimed that blind bidding and guarantees shifted risk to them and increased the likelihood of bankruptcy, because they were required to bid for the right to exhibit a movie without seeing it first. In response to the lobbying of theater owners, 24 states passed laws between 1978 and 1984 that banned blind bidding, while 7 states also banned nonrefundable guarantees. This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the conflicting claims made by theater owners and movie studios about the impact of these laws on the survival rates of independent theaters, admission prices, and delays in the release of movies. We find that the laws were not only ineffective in keeping theater owners at risk of bankruptcy from exiting the market; they may have been even detrimental to those theater owners converting theaters to multiplexes at that time. (JEL K, L)     

WHICH JOURNAL RANKINGS BEST EXPLAIN ACADEMIC SALARIES? EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA

The ranking of an academic journal is important to authors, universities, journal publishers, and research funders. Rankings are gaining prominence as countries adopt regular research assessment exercises that especially reward publication in high‐impact journals. Yet even within a rankings‐oriented discipline like economics there is no agreement on how aggressively lower‐ranked journals are down‐weighted and in how wide is the universe of journals considered. Moreover, since it is typically less costly for authors to cite superfluous references, whether of their own volition or prompted by editors, than it is to ignore relevant ones, rankings based on citations may be easily manipulated. In contrast, when the merits of publication in one journal or another are debated during hiring, promotion, and salary decisions, the evaluators are choosing over actions with costly consequences. We therefore look to the academic labor market, using data on economists in the University of California system to relate their lifetime publications in 700 different academic journals to salary. We test amongst various sets of journal rankings, and publication discount rates, to see which are most congruent with the returns implied by the academic labor market. (JEL A14, I23, J44)     

Does the Role of Student Factors with Adolescent Substance Use Vary by Geography?

This study assesses the association of 12th-grade student factors (e.g., grades, classroom misbehaviors) with substance use (i.e., binge drinking, cigarette smoking, marijuana) across large, medium-sized, and nonmetropolitan areas. Based on a sample of 2,189 students from the 2013 Monitoring the Future data set, logistic regression analyses showed that poor student academic and behavioral factors were associated with higher substance use after controlling for gender, race, and socioeconomic status. Interaction analyses further showed no significant differences in the influence of student factors on substance use across locales. Results suggest that prevention efforts against substance use should target student factors regardless of area of residency.