Individual and Contextual Correlates of Economic Difficulties in Old Age in Europe

With data drawn from the second public release version of the “Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe” (SHARE), we scrutinize individual and contextual (regional) correlates of economic difficulties among older Europeans, aged 65 or more. A logistic multi-level regression model with random intercept shows that the risk of being relatively poor varies considerably among the aged. We verified that the factors affecting poverty in each area are not merely the weighted sum of the effect of the more disadvantaged people within the same area, which also exists: poverty appears also significantly influenced by the specific context of residence.     

Preventing Rsi/Wruld: use of esthesiometry to assess hand tactile sensitivity of slaughterhouse workers

This research was conducted with slaughterhouse female workers in the municipality of S?o Miguel do Igua?u, state of Parana, Brazil. The sample was composed of 103 women aged 25 to 40 ( 7.57 years, and the study aimed to verify the nerve conduction of the median nerve. An esthesiometer consisting of a Semmes-Weinstein monofilaments was used to measure the hand skin sensitivity in the region of the median nerve and a Jamar? hand dynamometer, which was used to determine the handgrip strength. About 81% of individuals had normal sensitivity with 0.05 g and average levels of handgrip strength in dominant hand (DH) of 35.30 kgf (( 3.10) and in the non-dominant hand (NDH) of 28.30 ( 3.09 kgf. 14% of individuals had reduced sensitivity, with values equivalent to 0.2 g and 2.0 g (blue and violet) and levels of handgrip strength in the DH equal to 28.10 kgf (( 2.90) and in the NDH of 26.40 kgf (( 3.28). 5% of individuals showed bilateral sensitivity deficit (4.0 g) and levels of handgrip strength in the DH of 16.10 kgf (( 2.10) and in the NDH of 18.20 kgf (( 3.28), resulting in a strong correlation between handgrip strength and sensitivity of the median nerve (r = 0.786) between variables dominant hand (DH) and (r = 0.626) for the non-dominant hand (NDH). It could be concluded that assessing the nerve conduction of the median nerve by hand esthesiometry can be an important tool in preventing the Carpal Tunnel Syndrome.     

Art, Nationalism and War: Political Futurism in Italy (1909–1944)

Futurism was launched as a revolutionary, iconoclastic movement encompassing the arts, politics and society. It rejected all ties with the past and preached with missionary zeal the advent of a new man and the total reconstruction of society. Despite its powerful impact on Italian politics, the importance of Futurism has scarcely been addressed in the social sciences. Yet, it continues to attract the interest of historians, literary critics and art historians. In fact, the major methodological hindrance for a more articulated research remains the latter's unchallenged hegemony, with their selective propensity to eulogistic accounts. The result is the neglect of Futurism's political dimension as a fully fledged nationalist movement. Aiming to redress this imbalance, the article analyzes Futurist politics through the movement's actions, proclaims and manifestos. It distinguishes early Futurism's anti-establishment ultra-nationalism (1909–1915) from the more institutionalized 'muscular' patriotism adopted after its merger with Fascism (1924–1944). In a global context of mounting nationalist state-building and spiralling inter-state rivalries, Italy's unitary, homogenizing nationalism provided a congenial matrix for the advent of war-mongering patriotism and irredentism. Here, Futurism found an ideal structure of political opportunities, in which it could articulate its unique repertoire of action. The futurists' peculiar talent in 'manufacturing consent' through the media was put to test in their marketing of war as adventurous boundary-building enterprise, a vision subsequently appropriated by Fascism.     

Are people in the South less intelligent than in the North? IQ and the North–South disparity in Italy

Socioeconomic disparity between North and South Italy has been recently explained by Lynn (2010) as the result of a lower intelligence quotient (IQ) of the Southern population. The present article discusses the procedure followed by Lynn, supplementing his data with new information on school assessments and per head regional income. Genetic North–South differences are then discussed on the basis of the most recent literature on the subject. The results do not confirm the suggested IQ-economy causal link.     

Adapting by calibration the sample size of a phase III trial on the basis of phase II data

The problem of estimating the sample size for a phase III trial on the basis of existing phase II data is considered, where data from phase II cannot be combined with those of the new phase III trial. Focus is on the test for comparing the means of two independent samples. A launching criterion is adopted in order to evaluate the relevance of phase II results: phase III is run if the effect size estimate is higher than a threshold of clinical importance. The variability in sample size estimation is taken into consideration. Then, the frequentist conservative strategies with a fixed amount of conservativeness and Bayesian strategies are compared. A new conservative strategy is introduced and is based on the calibration of the optimal amount of conservativeness – calibrated optimal strategy (COS). To evaluate the results we compute the Overall Power (OP) of the different strategies, as well as the mean and the MSE of sample size estimators. Bayesian strategies have poor characteristics since they show a very high mean and/or MSE of sample size estimators. COS clearly performs better than the other conservative strategies. Indeed, the OP of COS is, on average, the closest to the desired level; it is also the highest. COS sample size is also the closest to the ideal phase III sample size M_I, showing averages and MSEs lower than those of the other strategies. Costs and experimental times are therefore considerably reduced and standardized. However, if the ideal sample size M_I is to be estimated the phase II sample size n should be around the ideal phase III sample size, i.e. n?2M_I/3. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Internet Poker Websites and Pathological Gambling Prevention Policy

Despite the widespread increase in online poker playing and the risk related to excessive poker playing, research on online poker websites is still lacking with regard to pathological gambling prevention strategies offered by the websites. The aim of the present study was to assess the pathological gambling-related prevention strategies of online poker websites. Two keywords (“poker” and “poker help”) were entered into two popular World Wide Web search engines. The first 20 links related to French and English online poker websites were assessed. Seventy-four websites were assessed with a standardized tool designed to rate sites on the basis of accountability, interactivity, prevention strategies, marketing, and messages related to poker strategies. Prevention strategies appeared to be lacking. Whereas a substantial proportion of the websites offered incitation to gambling such as betting “tips,” few sites offered strategies to prevent or address problem gambling. Furthermore, strategies related to poker, such as probability estimation, were mostly reported without acknowledging their limitations. Results of this study suggest that more adequate prevention strategies for risky gambling should be developed for online poker.     

Determinants of Contraceptive Use in Egypt: A Multilevel Approach

The increasing use of family planning methods seems to be the intermediate determinant which mostly influences the fertility decline in developing countries, and in particular in those countries which are in an advanced phase of demographic transition such as Egypt. Moreover large countries, like Egypt, are characterized by very different geographical realities and even by strong regional heterogeneities. The aim of this study is the analysis of the determinants of contraceptive use in Egypt, with particular reference to the differentials due to the socio-economic context and to the area of residence. To estimate each individual and regional factors’ effect on contraceptive use, a logistic two-level random intercept model is fitted to EDHS 2000 data; the use of a multilevel analysis is suggested by the two-level data structure: the first level units are the women, the second level units are their regions of residence.     

Zero variance Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian estimators

Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC estimator, based on the zero-variance principle introduced in the physics literature, is proposed. Conditions for asymptotic unbiasedness of the zero-variance estimator are derived. A central limit theorem is also proved under regularity conditions. The potential of the idea is illustrated with real applications to probit, logit and GARCH Bayesian models. For all these models, a central limit theorem and unbiasedness for the zero-variance estimator are proved (see the supplementary material available on-line).     

Robustness and Corrections for Sample Size Adaptation Strategies Based on Effect Size Estimation

A study on the robustness of the adaptation of the sample size for a phase III trial on the basis of existing phase II data is presented—when phase III is lower than phase II effect size. A criterion of clinical relevance for phase II results is applied in order to launch phase III, where data from phase II cannot be included in statistical analysis. The adaptation consists in adopting the conservative approach to sample size estimation, which takes into account the variability of phase II data. Some conservative sample size estimation strategies, Bayesian and frequentist, are compared with the calibrated optimal γ conservative strategy (viz. COS) which is the best performer when phase II and phase III effect sizes are equal. The Overall Power (OP) of these strategies and the mean square error (MSE) of their sample size estimators are computed under different scenarios, in the presence of the structural bias due to lower phase III effect size, for evaluating the robustness of the strategies. When the structural bias is quite small (i.e., the ratio of phase III to phase II effect size is greater than 0.8), and when some operating conditions for applying sample size estimation hold, COS can still provide acceptable results for planning phase III trials, even if in bias absence the OP was higher.

Main results concern the introduction of a correction, which affects just sample size estimates and not launch probabilities, for balancing the structural bias. In particular, the correction is based on a postulation of the structural bias; hence, it is more intuitive and easier to use than those based on the modification of Type I or/and Type II errors. A comparison of corrected conservative sample size estimation strategies is performed in the presence of a quite small bias. When the postulated correction is right, COS provides good OP and the lowest MSE. Moreover, the OPs of COS are even higher than those observed without bias, thanks to higher launch probability and a similar estimation performance. The structural bias can therefore be exploited for improving sample size estimation performances. When the postulated correction is smaller than necessary, COS is still the best performer, and it also works well. A higher than necessary correction should be avoided.     

The diverse nature of living apart together relationships: an Italy–France comparison

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the nature of living apart together (LAT) relationships by focusing on two contrasting family settings: France and Italy. First, we corroborate the view that being “single” in residential terms does not mean being “without a partner” in relationship terms. To assume otherwise would be an erroneous characterisation of more than one quarter of the individuals in both countries. Second, our findings cannot be reconciled with any notion of a simple, uniform, and uni-directional view of LAT relationships. In Italy, LAT relationships are popular in the early phases of the life course, when young adults must often face difficult economic situations as well as social pressure to marry. In France, LAT relationships are more the result of a conscious choice, especially in later phases of the life course. We discuss these results in light of the second demographic transition narrative.