Price bias and common practice in option pricing

Generally, the semiclosed-form option pricing formula for complex financial models depends on unobservable factors such as stochastic volatility and jump intensity. A popular practice is to use an estimate of these latent factors to compute the option price. However, in many situations this plug-and-play approximation does not yield the appropriate price. This article examines this bias and quantifies its impacts. We decompose the bias into terms that are related to the bias on the unobservable factors and to the precision of their point estimators. The approximated price is found to be highly biased when only the history of the stock price is used to recover the latent states. This bias is corrected when option prices are added to the sample used to recover the states' best estimate. We also show numerically that such a bias is propagated on calibrated parameters, leading to erroneous values. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 8–35; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.     

International and intercultural issues in English teaching textbooks: the case of Spain

The sociocultural content of foreign language textbooks has become a concern of scholars and practitioners owing to the fact that the traditional emphasis on purely linguistic issues has been expanded to embrace a language in context approach. This paper studies the English‐speaking communities that are described in English language teaching textbooks marketed in Spain. It examines to what extent an international and/or intercultural approach is a constituent element in their design.     

The potential of integrated modelling in conservation biology: A case study of the black‐footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes)

Conservation biology aims at assessing the status of a population, based on information which is often incomplete. Integrated population modelling based on state‐space models appears to be a powerful and relevant way of combining into a single likelihood several types of information such as capture‐recapture data and population surveys. In this paper, the authors describe the principles of integrated population modelling and they evaluate its performance for conservation biology based on a case study, that of the black‐footed albatross, a northern Pacific albatross species suspected to be impacted by longline fishing     

Erroneous perceptions and arousal among regular and occasional video poker players

This study investigated the relationship between the level of arousal (Heart Rate) and the number of erroneous perceptions among video poker players. Twelve regular and twelve occasional gamblers participated in a gambling session conducted in a natural environment. It was hypothesised that 1) a significant positive correlation would be observed between arousal and the number of erroneous verbalizations, 2) regular players would show a higher level of arousal than occasional players, and 3) they would emit more erroneous verbalizations. Results showed that hypotheses one and three were confirmed. Theoretical and practical implications of these results for the psychology of gambling are discussed.This study was supported by a grant from Loto-Québec.     

关于丢番图方程x2+by=cz

设s,t满足gcd(s,t)=1,s>t的正整数,a=2st,b=s~2-t~2,c=s~2+t~2。证明了:若c为素数幂且满足下列条件之一:(1)b有因子b_1≡±5(mod8),(2)b≡-1(mod8),(3)5|c。则不定方程x~2+b~y=c~z仅有一组正整数解(x,y,z)=a,2,2。     

关于培养创新型教师的思考

阐述了在知识经济时代培养创新型教师的必要性和紧迫性 ,针对教师队伍存在的问题 ,提出创新型教师必须具备的能力和素质 ,并从我国教育改革的实际出发 ,探索了培养创新型教师的基本途径     

关于丢番图逼近中的一个猜想(I)

证明了Cusich提出的猜想 (I) .对于任给的n个正整数a1,a2 ,… ,an 总存在一个实数x ,使得‖aix‖ 1n+ 1,i=1,2 ,…n成立 .其中‖x‖表示x到其最近整数的距离     

古代埃及面具文化刍论

古代埃及面具因年代久远、遗存丰富、内涵深厚、制作精美而享誉世界。文章从宗教思想、死亡观、丧葬礼仪等方面 ,剖析了古代埃及面具文化的生长条件 ,并对一些具有代表性的面具作了详细论述